Does Minority Support Leadership Make A Viable Opposition?

The impression emitting from Labour's handling of the Hughes affair is a picture of Phil Goff as an embattled Party Leader, a man who fails to attract a competitive poll rating and fails to hold the confidence of the majority in his caucus. Is this tenable?

As Scoop reported on Friday, contacts inside Labour said a count was underway to determine where caucus members would vote should a leadership challenge be required or advanced.

In reply to the article, other media reported Labour Mps denying a leadership challenge had been put to the vote but that members held a deep dissatisfaction over the leader's handling of the Darren Hughes affair. Indeed, this is what Scoop's contacts said and say too.

What this highlights is Labour's biggest problem: that there exists no one who has been groomed and presented as a potential replacement to Goff even though the caucus lost confidence in its leader's abilities while under pressure.

It is a terrible situation for Phil Goff to find himself in. Clearly he is the most experienced, the best thinker, arguably the most honourable among them, and from a ministerial politics point of view a solid alternative to National's John Key. But Phil Goff also must realise that he remains leader only while the majority factions (the women, rainbow, and union factions) wish to parade him out front.

Even should an alternative like David Parker arise to challenge Goff, Labour's caucus would be left to ponder whether the challenger possessed that necessary x-factor needed to convince the public that he or she is their main wo/man. Clearly, so far, caucus members believed that impossible.

Other media had speculated that finance spokesperson David Cunliffe was an alternative. But Scoop understands that while Cunliffe is a consideration, the majority in caucus just do not acknowledge his leadership potential, in fact in many quarters he simply is not liked. Others, like Lianne Dalziel and Shane Jones were discussed. But caucus insiders suggested they were either spoiled goods or lacking in commitment, inclination and effort to lead.

Scoop's contacts also suggest that Labour's heavy-hitter Trevor Mallard is positioned to be Labour's chief strategist and campaign manager for this year's election rather than be squeezed into becoming a contender for the leadership.

That's the dilemma. Labour is a party in transition, it is shaping into becoming a political force to seriously pitch for the 2014 election. But today it is hardly a realistic cabinet-in-waiting for 2011.

Key to whether Goff remained as leader rested on how the factions believed they could achieve the the best possible outcome in November. It is about appearances, poll positions, and campaign performance.

The first two considerations are interrelated – should Labour's poll ratings dip then the party's key list Mps would get twitchy.

And as Kiwiblog's David Farrar wrote in reply to Goff stating on TVNZ's Q&A that Labour is polling in the mid-30s, a snap look at three recent leading polls suggests Labour has been dipping: “If one simply averages them, then that is an average poll rating of 32.1%. Labour got 34.0% in the 2008 election...”

Anything below the mid 30s will see many on Labour's list realising they need to do something and fast, especially should Labour pick up a few extra electorate wins in November. That would erode into party list positions should Labour dip in the nationwide party list vote.

In defence of Goff's statement on Labour's polling, perhaps he was referring to an internal Labour-commissioned poll that reflects public dissatisfaction with the National-led Government's handling of the economy and the Christchurch earthquake response plan. If so, that would have run in his favour.

When a party is under seige, when it gets out the mattresses and battens down the hatches, outsiders are left scratching for information. In this case, the behaviour of weather-vane Mps such as Jacinda Ardern and Stuart Nash would normally provide good insight into where things were/are heading. As list Mps with an ambition to make Cabinet after 2014, the November election this year is crucial.

Ardern has allegiances to both Goff-factions and women's factions. She worked as a staffer for former Labour leader and prime minister Helen Clark. But she also began her Parliamentary experience working as a staffer in Phil Goff's office. While her work history would suggest she tilts more left than Goff's lot, Ardern will have been privy to his impressive performance as a leading Cabinet Minister during Goff's Justice and Foreign Affairs tenure. It must be remembered he was arguably Labour's best Cabinet minister through its nine years in office. From the inside, Ardern will know first hand of his immense talent and also his frailties. Those who have observed Goff from the inside know he is a clear thinker in portfolio terms, he has a sense of right and wrong, and has a sincere sence of justice - and it must be said Goff saved Labour from experiencing deep fractures that threatened to tear Labour and its coalition apart over the Police killing of Stephen Wallace – a fact that the public never really heard about. Goff's behind the scenes leadership, taking Crown Law and the Police to task over legalities surrounding that case and doing so in meetings where Maori caucus members were in attendance was good politics and made of the stuff which the public never gets to see.

Most that know Goff will know he is a better Cabinet minister, and possibly a better prime minister, than an opposition leader. While it is subjective, it could be argued that he would be a better prime minister than the current incumbent, albeit without the public appeal.

But that is all academic.

Ardern is tipped to have a bright future with Labour, but that is conditional on a solid and notable party list position. For Ardern, it is likely to be a close race between her and National's incumbent Nikki Kaye for Auckland Central. For Ardern to feel secure about her future plans she needs a solid party list position not just as insurance, but also for political prestige. Her list position sugests she has breathing room and a broad enough caucus base to shift without damaging her list position, but she needs more than that.

Stuart Nash is naturally a more centre-right leaning politician with a future ahead of him. For Nash to achieve his ambitions, he needs to chip away at National's hold on the Napier electorate. To achieve this he needs to be in Parliament. For Nash to remain in Parliament he needs to improve his list position so to protect him against being tossed out of Parliament in November should a negative swing ensue.

Nash is a natural ally for Goff, but should Labour become victim to declining poll ratings and a probable negative swing, then Nash will have to re-evaluate where his loyalties lie. His problem is, that decision needs to be made now.

Nash will likely realise, Labour needs him. If he eventually wins back Napier he will be a political celebrity. His concern today is Labour's concern.

There is a creeping mood emitting from both Labour and National's inner core that the big election is not 2011, it is 2014. All that is happening now is in preparation for an equal battle in 2014. By then it is believed National's hold on the provinces will be easing. Seats like Napier and Tukituki in the Hawke's Bay will become examples of a swag of other provincial seats like East Coast that will swing back to Labour. We will likely see that occuring in part in November with New Plymouth expected to deliver party president Andrew Little into the debating chamber. Other electorates like Taupo, Taranaki-King Country, West Coast-Tasman could all return as Labour seats once strong candidates are lined up that are seen to be true advocates for the people of those electorates.

In the cities, support for National is already ebbing albeit slowly. And ACT's hold on Epsom looks delicate and Auckland-based Slater and Boag factions are battling over whether to place a half-decent National Party candidate to prize the seat of Rodney Hide. It does appear Epsom's women are turning away from Hide in droves. In Auckland Central the talented Nikki Kaye is under threat from Ardern. It could very well go Labour's way, while Maungakiekie will likely remain with National. Hamilton-west could very well swing back to Labour.

National's problem is that it is fast losing coalition partners. ACT's implosion and fall from respectability, leaves National with United Future and the Maori Party. United needs to hold Peter Dunne's seat Ohariu. The trouble is Labour's Charles Chauvel is on the rise and his talent is being noticed. In 2008, Chauvel came close to crow-baring Dunne out of his once safe seat, and certainly it is a strong possibility that he will do so this November. With United gone, National is more reliant on the centrist Maori Party. This at a time when National itself is drifting more to centre-right, in part to satisfy its caucus and Cabinet ideologues but also to deliver to its stakeholder groups.

The Maori Party has already lost a significant pocket of support. The constituency pressure evolving as a consequence of the Foreshore and Seabed Act repeal deal with National threatens core support for the Maori Party.

Thae party is a mess having lost Te Tai Tokerau through Hone Harawira's defection. Harawira is hardly going to sure up National's numbers next time around, and the powerful South Island iwi Ngai Tahu has already expressed its dissatisfaction with the National/Maory Party repeal-deal. It is arguable whether Ngai Tahu's disappointment will erode further into the Maori Party's list vote from South Island Maori. But in the north, should urban Maori listen to Harawira's rationale, and people do, then Tamaki Makaurau could very well swing away from the conservatism of Dr Pita Sharples only to be exploited by Shane Jones – should he get some direction and make the effort.

National knows much of its legislative agenda marked for next term will be controversial, moreover it potentially will cause centre-swinging voters to reconsider their options by 2013 creating a situation where the public sphere steers support away from National. By 2014, the election is Labours to win.

Labour has shown signs of rebuilding, and its new blood have shown glimmers of promise. Grant Robertson has turned Wellington Central into a solid Labour seat and is striding ahead as a man on a political mission promising through action to be a powerful person of influence once Labour eventually returns to the Treasury Benches.

But this week, the question for Labour's caucus members was:
* What leader will achieve the best possible party list percentage in November?
* Can a leader who enjoys minority caucus support really display a convincing performance of being a prime minister-in-waiting?
* What leader, or representative of the dominant factions, is best able to INSPIRE caucus members to get off their behinds, own their portfolios, expose National-led Government frailties and incompetence, and look like a team deserving of government?

At this stage it looks likely that Phil Goff will remain.

If Labour's caucus has been brave enough to ask these questions, and Scoop's contacts say they have been, then our question from the outside remains: will they have the gumption to shake off their malaise and get stuck into opposition-politics?

The meeting on Tuesday between Labour Leader Phil Goff and Labour's front-bench Mps is one step along such a trajectory.

Criticism of how Goff managed the Hughes affair crisis needs to be considered against a broader-based strategy, including the points raised above.

Darren Hughes was one of the Labour Party's most respected politicians, dynamic in the House, a keen debater, a jovial personality and an impressive intellect. Last Friday he resigned from Parliament after three days of embarrasing public discourse. That's the end of that chapter pending the Police investigation. The next is in Labour's caucus' hands.

Irrespective of how factions that naturally fall outside Goff's camp use their new-found power, New Zealand voters deserve to witness a true opposition party, with all its members, stepping up to represent their interests.

One way or another, the time is nigh.

© Scoop Media