Weekend Trade Watch – Cosgrove, Dunne And Tea Dates

Weekend Trade Watch – Cosgrove, Dunne And Tea Dates

Wellington – The big movement over the weekend was National moving ahead of Labour MP Clayton Cosgrove in Waimakariri after the details of a poll on the Christchurch seat emerged on Friday.

A Fairfax Media-Research International snap poll put National’s Kate Wilkinson on 53.9 percent of decided voters against 36 percent for Cosgrove.

This shot ahead Wilkinson on iPredict though some buying today has had Cosgrove clawing back some ground.

Likewise another Fairfax electorate poll resulted in Peter Dunne’s probability of holding on to the Ohariuelectorate falling to around 70 percent after the oll indicated that Labour’s Charles Chauvel was making inroads.

The Fairfax Media-Research International put Dunne on 37.4 percent and Chauvel on 35.6.

Trading today put Dunne back closer to an 80 percent probability.

National's Katrina Shanks was on 19 per cent, despite not campaigning for the electorate vote, with the Greens candidate Gareth on just 1.4 per cent.

Prime Minister leader John Key has urged National voters in Ohariu to back Dunne, though it appears they may not be listening to the message. Alternatively, they may not have heard the message and another ``tea date’ might be in order. However on Friday, Dunne said he no such plans to imitate Key's public date with John Banks in Epsom.

This might change and iPredict has launched a stock asking whether Dunne will get a similar photo op as John Banks.

In 2008 the seat was a three way race with Dunne’s 12,303 electorate votes comparing to Chauvel’s 11,297 and Shanks 10,009.

Key’s tea date with Banks shored up ACT's chance to win Epsom over the weekend, though the fall-out from the secretly taped conversation is not yet seemingly having any impact on the iPredict market.

In other movement Labour moved firmly to hold on to Te Atatu, while Labour became less likely to win Palmerston North.

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