28 January 2003 Media Statement

Rolls expected to increase for 2003 school year

Schools open tomorrow (January 29) with an estimated 743,200 New Zealanders expected to go to school this year, about 8,620 more than last year, Education Minister Trevor Mallard said today.

Total primary enrolments this year will be around 486,760, up by 500 on last year. Secondary enrolments will be around 256,450, an increase of around 8,120 on last year.

“The estimated school rolls are based on 2002 rolls and population changes. Actual school rolls will not be known until the March and July data collections. Because of the growth in secondary school rolls, special measures have been implemented to reduce actual vacancies and fill any gaps on a temporary basis,” Trevor Mallard said.

“As part of the teachers’ employment agreement settlement last year, the Government promised it would provide 373 extra teachers, over and above what’s needed for roll growth, and this partly explains the higher level of vacancies that schools may experience. There is also a worldwide shortage of teachers, and in New Zealand a population bulge is moving through secondary schools which is expected to peak in 2006-07.

“The TeachNZ unit of the Ministry of Education will be providing advice and support to schools so they are aware of the wide range of help available, including the assistance of three recruitment agents.

“Schools, if they have vacancies, may decide to make internal adjustments or extend the hours of part-time teachers. They could also employ relief teachers while they finalise permanent appointments or until returning New Zealand teachers or overseas teachers can take up their positions. There is also a pool of secondary teachers in Auckland for any emergency situations that might arise.

“In terms of primary schools, it’s expected that around 9,840 new entrants will be enrolled at schools next week. They’ll be among an estimated 59,050 children who will start school for the first time throughout the year, around 440 more than last year.”

At a regional level, half of new entrants to school this year will be in the Auckland, Waikato and Bay of Plenty regions. Proportionately, the biggest increase in the number of students is in the Auckland region.

Details of teacher supply initiatives and roll statistics are attached.

ENDS

Teacher supply initiatives are as follows, costing around $37 million over three years. These include:

- scholarships

- teacher training allowances, worth up to $10,000 each, for student teachers specialising in subjects where shortages are being experienced

- recruitment incentives

- retraining for former secondary teachers

- returning teacher allowances

- national relocation grants for teachers to move to teaching jobs in areas of high demand

- conversion courses to enable existing primary teachers with degree qualifications to teach in secondary schools

- international relocation grants for New Zealand teachers living abroad and suitably qualified overseas-trained teachers.

- matching teacher graduates from outside Auckland with Auckland vacancies

- three recruitment agencies contracted to work with schools and also attract New Zealand teachers working in Britain back to New Zealand

Primary School Roll Estimates

Estimated Numbers of New Entrants by Region

Region 2002 2003

Beginning of School Year Entire School Year Beginning of School Year Entire School Year

Northland 400 2 390 400 2 400

Auckland 3 230 19 360 3 280 19 660

Waikato 990 5 920 990 5 960

Bay of Plenty 690 4 110 690 4 140

Gisborne 130 810 130 800

Hawkes Bay 400 2 390 400 2 390

Taranaki 260 1 540 260 1 540

Manawatu/Wanganui 580 3 470 580 3 490

Wellington 1 050 6 270 1 050 6 270

Nelson/Marlborough/Tasman 280 1 680 280 1 710

West Coast 80 460 80 450

Canterbury 1 090 6 560 1 110 6 640

Otago 380 2 270 380 2 310

Southland 230 1 380 230 1 390

All Areas 9 770 58 610 9 840 59 050

Secondary School Roll Estimates

Around 61,990 Year 9 students (including adult students) are expected to enrol at New Zealand secondary schools, about 2,660 more than last year.

Estimated Numbers of Year 9 Students by Region

Region 2002 2003

Northland 2 460 2 560

Auckland 18 680 19 720

Waikato 5 850 6 100

Bay of Plenty 4 060 4 230

Gisborne 820 850

Hawkes Bay 2 610 2 730

Taranaki 1 840 1 890

Manawatu/Wanganui 3 650 3 820

Wellington 6 290 6 610

Nelson/Marlborough/Tasman 1 990 2 070

West Coast 420 430

Canterbury 6 730 7 030

Otago 2 520 2 590

Southland 1 420 1 440

All Areas 59 330 61 990

Total actual (2002) and estimated (2003) number of students by region

Region 2002 2003

Primary (Year 1-8) Secondary

(Year 9-15) Primary (Year 1-8) Secondary (Year 9-15)

Northland 20 630 9 510 20 610 9 770

Auckland 155 880 77 900 158 290 81 330

Waikato 49 110 24 150 49 110 24 880

Bay of Plenty 34 210 16 140 34 570 16 660

Gisborne 6 870 3 180 6 780 3 280

Hawkes Bay 20 320 10 580 20 230 10 950

Taranaki 13 530 7 540 13 240 7 650

Manawatu/Wanganui 28 700 15 290 28 540 15 800

Wellington 51 920 26 600 51 630 27 610

Nelson/Marlborough/Tasman 14 980 8 240 14 880 8 470

West Coast 3 900 1 640 3 830 1 660

Canterbury 55 000 30 210 54 850 31 190

Otago 19 330 11 320 19 100 11 520

Southland 11 880 6 040 11 610 6 040

All Areas 486 250 248 330 486 760 256 450

School Roll Growth

The number of primary school students is expected to peak in 2003 and decline thereafter.

The growth in the number of secondary school students is accelerating with the number of secondary school students expected to peak in 2006.

*Actual Student Rolls

Actual and Projected School Rolls: 1996 - 2013

Year Primary

(Y1 - Y8) Secondary

(Y9-Y15)

1996* 460 500 235 600

1997* 471 300 236 100

1998* 478 800 239 900

1999* 483 300 242 800

2000* 484 200 241 700

2001* 483 600 242 700

2002* 486 300 248 300

2003 486 800 256 400

2004 483 300 264 500

2005 481 200 270 100

2006 478 300 272 800

2007 474 300 272 200

2008 469 700 270 700

2009 465 800 267 800

2010 461 700 265 200

2011 457 200 263 400

2012 452 500 261 700

2013 445 400 261 600

*Actual Student Roll

Enrolments are influenced significantly by birth trends. From 1982 to 1992, the number of live births increased from 49,700 to 60,500. Since 1992, the numbers have been drifting downwards again and therefore impacting on the number of new entrants. The high level of births experienced during the late 1980s and early 1990s has resulted in a student bulge with an expected peak in primary rolls in 2003 and secondary rolls in 2006.

Migration also influences roll levels. In the year ended November 2002, New Zealand experienced a net gain close to 12,000 migrants for those aged 0 to 17 compared to a net gain of around 3,100 migrants over the same period in the previous year. Gains from migration are expected to remain at similar levels for 2003 but decrease thereafter.

Ethnic Composition of school rolls - 2002

While European/Pakeha constitute the largest ethnic group in New Zealand schools, the next largest group, Maori, account for 21% of enrolments. There are also significant numbers of New Zealand students of Pacific (8%) and Asian (7%) ethnic origin.

During the period 1998-2002 the number of Maori, Pacific and Asian students increased while the number of European/Pakeha students has decreased. Growth in the number of Asian students has resulted from increased migration from Asia in recent years.

Change in the Number of Students by Ethnicity, 1998 to 2002

European /Pakeha Maori Pacific Asian All New Zealand Students

No. -14062 8153 7174 7374 13140

% -3.0% 5.6% 13.5% 17.6% 1.8%

Further information on school rolls can be found in the annual publication Education Statistics of New Zealand (Ministry of Education).

Estimated Territorial Local Authority Student Rolls

Territorial Local Authority 2002 2003

Year 1. Beginning of School Year Year 1. Entire School Year Year 9 Students Primary (Years 1-8) Secondary (Years 9-15) Year 1. Beginning of School Year Year 1. Entire School Year Year 9 Students Primary (Years 1-8) Secondary (Years 9-15)

Far North 160 970 1 010 8 510 3 820 160 960 1 040 8 310 3 880

Whangarei 190 1 140 1 160 9 670 4 630 190 1 140 1 220 9 800 4 800

Kaipara 50 290 290 2 450 1 060 50 290 300 2 530 1 090

Rodney 200 1 180 800 9 660 3 130 200 1 210 850 9 940 3 290

North Shore City 450 2 690 3 180 22 400 14 040 460 2 750 3 330 23 020 14 510

Waitakere City 480 2 860 2 220 22 920 8 600 480 2 880 2 370 21 920 9 060

Auckland City 900 5 400 6 420 43 790 28 210 910 5 460 6 740 42 390 29 310

Manukau City 960 5 770 4 550 44 810 18 120 970 5 830 4 800 42 470 18 930

Papakura 130 750 850 6 530 3 260 130 760 890 6 190 3 390

Franklin 160 940 760 7 700 2 930 160 960 810 7 530 3 080

Thames -Coromandel 50 320 280 2 870 1 170 50 320 300 3 020 1 230

Hauraki 40 270 380 2 430 1 490 40 270 380 2 410 1 490

Waikato 130 760 350 5 780 1 310 130 760 370 6 190 1 350

Matamata - Piako 90 520 480 4 220 1 890 80 510 490 4 070 1 890

Hamilton City 300 1 800 2 340 15 120 10 210 310 1 840 2 440 14 940 10 490

Waipa 110 670 800 5 700 3 270 110 680 830 5 910 3 360

Otorohanga 20 140 110 1 150 380 20 140 110 1 280 400

South Waikato 80 460 380 3 630 1 550 70 450 400 3 450 1 620

Waitomo 30 180 150 1 410 560 30 180 160 1 420 570

Taupo 80 500 420 4 220 1 700 80 500 440 4 080 1 760

Western BOP 100 570 460 4 910 1 730 100 580 470 5 110 1 770

Tauranga 250 1 490 1 560 12 150 6 350 250 1 500 1 640 12 140 6 610

Rotorua 190 1 160 1 220 9 560 4 800 190 1 160 1 260 9 440 4 910

Whakatane 110 630 620 5 370 2 530 110 630 650 5 410 2 600

Kawerau 30 150 120 1 270 380 30 150 130 1 160 390

Opotiki 30 180 130 1 550 570 30 180 130 1 510 590

Gisborne 130 810 820 6 870 3 180 130 800 850 6 940 3 270

Wairoa 30 160 130 1 460 520 30 160 130 1 410 530

Hastings 200 1 220 1 230 10 040 4 920 200 1 210 1 280 10 100 5 080

Napier 140 820 1 030 7 030 4 230 140 810 1 090 7 030 4 410

Central H. Bay 30 200 220 1 780 900 30 200 230 1 990 920

New Plymouth 160 970 1 330 8 590 5 460 160 970 1 360 9 000 5 530

Stratford 20 120 190 1 200 750 20 120 200 1 420 770

South Taranaki 70 440 320 3 760 1 330 70 450 320 3 890 1 340

Ruapehu 50 270 190 2 110 800 40 270 200 1 940 820

Wanganui 110 640 790 5 800 3 460 110 640 810 5 900 3 520

Rangitikei 40 240 230 2 150 970 40 240 230 2 210 980

Manawatu 80 460 390 3 720 1 420 80 470 410 4 130 1 470

Palmerston North City 180 1 060 1 310 8 570 5 720 180 1 070 1 390 8 740 5 990

Tararua 50 320 330 2 570 1 280 50 320 340 2 340 1 290

Horowhenua 80 480 410 3 760 1 640 80 480 440 3 850 1 720

Kapiti Coast 100 570 640 5 190 2 470 100 570 690 5 560 2 610

Porirua City 160 940 540 7 010 2 190 150 920 560 6 510 2 260

Upper Hutt City 90 520 690 4 840 2 830 90 520 710 4 810 2 890

Hutt City 270 1 610 1 480 13 060 6 030 270 1 610 1 570 13 080 6 330

Wellington City 340 2 070 2 250 16 810 10 280 340 2 070 2 350 16 600 10 620

Masterton 60 350 570 3 250 2 250 60 350 580 3 540 2 260

Carterton 20 90 10 760 30 20 90 10 820 30

South Wairarapa 20 120 110 1 010 520 20 120 120 990 550

Tasman 100 570 640 5 220 2 530 100 580 660 5 500 2 580

Nelson City 90 570 800 5 120 3 490 100 580 840 5 450 3 620

Marlborough 90 550 550 4 630 2 230 90 550 570 4 710 2 290

Kaikoura 10 50 40 400 160 10 50 40 490 170

Buller 20 130 130 1 200 510 20 130 130 1 170 520

Greytown 40 220 200 1 750 820 40 210 210 1 590 830

Westland 20 110 90 950 300 20 110 90 960 320

Hurunui 30 150 60 1 220 220 30 150 60 1 170 220

Waimakariri 90 540 540 4 690 2 090 90 550 580 4 890 2 210

Christchurch City 700 4 220 4 510 35 020 21 220 710 4 290 4 710 36 110 21 910

Banks Peninsula 10 70 10 650 30 10 70 10 620 30

Selwyn 70 420 430 3 310 1 730 70 420 450 3 480 1 790

Ashburton 60 350 320 3 100 1 310 60 350 330 3 140 1 320

Timaru 90 570 720 5 120 3 020 90 570 750 5 390 3 110

McKenzie 10 50 50 380 200 10 50 50 340 200

Waimate 20 110 60 870 220 20 110 60 910 240

Chatham Is. County 10 90 10 100

Waitaki 40 260 380 2 270 1 600 40 260 370 2 180 1 560

Central Otago 30 170 190 1 680 860 30 170 200 1 950 890

Queenstown-Lakes 40 220 160 1 810 730 40 230 170 1 800 780

Dunedin City 230 1 400 1 560 11 590 7 240 240 1 420 1 600 11 900 7 340

Clutha 40 250 230 2 200 900 40 250 250 2 130 950

Southland 70 420 320 3 720 1 350 70 430 330 3 830 1 360

Gore 30 160 200 1 500 820 30 160 200 1 650 820

Invercargill City 130 800 900 6 660 3 870 130 800 900 6 890 3 840

Total 9 770 58 610 59 330 486 250 248 330 9 840 59 050 61 990 486 760 256 450

Note1: Individual TLA's may not add to total due to rounding

Note2: Numbers provided in text and tables are subject to rounding.

ENDS

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