Hospitalisations Won’t Go Up If Restrictions Are Lifted
“Health Minister Andrew Little has this morning admitted that if mandates and other restrictions were lifted, there wouldn’t be an increase in hospitalisations,” says ACT Leader David Seymour.
“Appearing on Today FM, Little was asked “If restrictions are lifted now, the mandates, the passes, the gathering limits, will hospitalisations go up?” His answer was “the modelling shows no.”
“The whole point of the restrictions was to prevent hospitalisations. If the rules are no longer working then we should ditch them immediately.
“Why are we staying in what is a lockdown in all but name until the tourists arrive? The reality is, Jacinda has backed herself into a corner. She’s scared half the country senseless and now she’s moving slowly to appease them.
“Good leadership would mean following the science and treating us like adults. When Cabinet meets today it should acknowledge what Andrew Little admitted on radio this morning and announce that the restrictions will be lifted this afternoon.
“Instead, she will do a complicated little dance, where the decision will be made, she’ll make an announcement about an announcement and then tell us later, probably dragging the announcement out over weeks.
ACT’s Move On plan proposes:
• Scanning and contact
tracing: Contact tracing creates relatively minor
costs, but also delivers negligible benefits because it does
not reach enough potential contacts or reach them fast
enough in light of Omicron’s higher transmissibility. It
results in some people isolating because they are
“pinged” but often not in time to prevent them from
transmitting the virus. The resulting isolation that comes
from being pinged is a growing disaster for business and
supply chains. The requirement for businesses to display
codes and have people scan in should be dropped, along with
the requirement to contact trace cases, because it’s just
not working. Dropping these requirements would be an
important symbol that we are moving on and getting our way
of life back. It should be done immediately.
•
Mask requirements: Well-worn and high-quality masks
can help prevent spread. Mask wearing likely has significant
benefits for reducing the spread of Omicron, although this
is sensitive to mask quality. While extremely irritating, it
is one of the few current policies where it is reasonable to
believe that the benefits outweigh the costs.
•
Boosters: Relative to a two-shot regimen, booster
shots significantly reduce the likelihood of death and
serious illness due to COVID-19. There is a limited cost.
Boosters are an important way to reduce the costs of the
inevitable spread of Omicron through the community.
Nonetheless, given most of the benefits of booster doses go
to those who get boosted, there is little case for mandating
them.
• Vaccine requirements: It is
difficult to justify a vaccination mandate purely on the
grounds that it reduces hospitalisation risk for
unvaccinated people themselves and thus pressure on the
health system. This effect has already reached saturation.
Unless a new requirement for boosters is introduced,
mandating is having negligible effect on vaccine uptake and
should be dropped immediately.
• Traffic Light
Framework: The Government has dashed large events
and hospitality businesses at enormous cost with little
consideration for what the benefits might be. If they have
cost-benefit analysis for Omicron, they have not presented
it. We have been asked to accept these restrictions with no
idea whether they will leave us better off or by how much.
Unless the Government can show the benefits of restricting
large events in an Omicron environment, in terms of reducing
the peak demand on hospital capacity, the Traffic Light
System should be dumped immediately so we can all move
on.
“It’s time to move on from fear and control. It’s time to get our lives back.”