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3 News TNS Opinion Poll Results - 4 Dec 2004

Press Release: 3 News TNS Opinion Poll Results
Saturday 4th December

25th November to 1st December 2004

Projected number of seats in the House on the basis of the latest poll results

Number of --- Number of
seats ----------- seats
Option --------- Option
One* ------------ Two*
Labour ::::: 62 --|-- 60
National ::: 42 --|-- 41
NZ First :::: 9 --|-- 9
Green Party 7 --|-- 7
Progressive 0 --|-- 1
ACT ::::::::::: 0 --|-- 0
United Future 0 --|-- 3
Total seats :::120 121

One* These figures include only those parties who gain above the 5% threshold on the Party Vote, and do not take into account Electorate Vote support

Two* These figures are based on Progressive and United Future winning one electorate seat as currently

For further information contact:
Steve Kirk
TNS
visit our web site, www.tns-global.co.nz

Labour maintains their lead over National…

Labour has a 14 point lead over National in Party Vote support. On party support alone this would translate to 62 seats in Parliament and Labour would be able to govern alone. If Peter Dunne and Jim Anderton win their Electorate seats, then Labour would still retain overall control with Mr Anderton’s support.

Helen Clark retains a 35% preferred Prime Minister rating, a figure she has not been below since October 2001. Almost two thirds of the people interviewed said they thought she was performing well in her role. This compares to just under a third saying Don Brash is performing well as leader of the National Party in opposition.

Preference for Don Brash as Prime Minister has fallen to 16%, just 5 points ahead of Winston Peters, and 11 points down on his peak level of support in March this year.

Movements in opinions for Don Brash since March:

Image --|-- Movement Points
Capable Leader --|-- down 14
Has a lot of personality --|-- down 12
Good in a crisis --|-- down 9
Sound judgement --|-- down 8
Down to earth --|-- down 8
Understands the economic problems for NZ --|-- down 7
Talks down to people --|-- up 9
Rather narrow minded --|-- up 8
Out of touch with ordinary people --|-- up 11

Research Methodology

Date poll was conducted
Interviews were conducted over the period 25th November to 1st December 2004

Sample Size
1000 voter eligible New Zealanders aged 18+

Sampling Technique
Telephone Interviews. Random generation of telephone numbers with quota sampling to ensure representative cross section by age, sex and geography.

Sample Coverage
National including rural, secondary urban and main urban areas

Sample Error
Maximum of 3.1% expressed at a 95% confidence level

*****************

CHARTS

MMP Voting : Party Vote
If a general election was held yesterday under MMP, which political party would you have voted for with your Party Vote?
That is, for the political party you most want to be represented in parliament.


Click for big version

MMP Voting : Electorate Vote
If a general election was held yesterday, using MMP, which party would you have voted for, with your electorate vote?
That is, for the MP in your area.


Click for big version

Preferred Prime Minister
If you were able to vote for any politician in New Zealand to be Prime Minister, for whom would you vote?


Click for big version

How is Helen Clark Performing?
Thinking now about the Prime Minister. How would you rate the performance of Helen Clark as Prime Minister? Overall, would
you say that as Prime Minister she is performing well or poorly? Is that Very … or Fairly …?


Click for big version

How is Don Brash Performing?
And now thinking about Don Brash, the leader of the National Party in opposition. How would you rate his performance.
Overall would you say he is performing well or poorly? Is that Very … or Fairly …?


Click for big version

I am going to read out some things, both favourable and unfavourable that have been said about various politicians.
I would like you to pick out all those statements that you feel fit Helen Clark. Would you say she…


Click for big version

I would now like you to tell me which of these statements you feel fit Don Brash. Would you say he…


Click for big version

ENDS

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