Gordon Campbell | Parliament TV | Parliament Today | News Video | Crime | Employers | Housing | Immigration | Legal | Local Govt. | Maori | Welfare | Unions | Youth | Search


Auckland stadium polls may be misleading

Auckland stadium polls may be misleading

Public opinion polls on the Auckland stadium issue are unscientific and don’t necessarily represent the views of all Aucklanders, says polling expert Professor Phil Gendall.

The Marketing professor says it’s also likely the polls are being used as a lobbying tool by vested interest on all sides of the debate.

He says the scientific principles of polling are well established. “To measure public opinion, it is not necessary to question everyone; by selecting a representative sample you can, within certain limits, be confident that their views reflect those of the population in general. This can provide an important input into the democratic process. However, the critical point is that the sample must be representative of the population from which it was selected. If it isn’t, then we don’t know how generalisable its opinions are.”

He says that is the problem with most of the polls conducted on the Auckland stadium issue: “They are generally based on self-selected samples of people with the time, the motivation, and sometimes also the money (and access to a computer or a copy of the New Zealand Herald), to participate. “It is impossible to say how representative of Aucklanders in general the opinions of these self-selected samples are, even if the numbers involved are quite large.

“Phone-in or email polls are also susceptible to manipulation or ‘ballot stuffing’ unless they are very carefully conducted. That is another reason why they are likely to reflect the views of people with strong opinions one way or the other. It doesn’t mean the polls are wrong, just that there is no way of telling if they are right.”

Professor Gendall says this doesn’t mean the polls are of no use to the City Councillors who have to make the decision on the waterfront site by Friday. “If they understand their limitations and make due allowance, they may gain some insight into the prevailing public mood from their results.”


© Scoop Media

Parliament Headlines | Politics Headlines | Regional Headlines

Gordon Campbell: On How America’s Middle East Allies Are Poisoning The Ground Joe Biden Will Inherit

As even the US mainstream media has been reporting, the prime motive for the murder of Iran’s top nuclear scientist Dr. Mohsen Fakhrizadeh (by Israeli or Saudi operatives, or both) has been to poison the situation that the next US president will inherit. At best, there was only an outside chance that the incoming Biden administration and the outgoing liberal regime of Iranian PM Hassan Rouhani could have revived the Iran anti-nuclear deal that Rouhani had negotiated in 2015 with Barack Obama. Deliberately though, America’s allies have now made it impossible for Biden to pursue that option... More>>


Pay Gap: Progress On Pay Equity For DHB Staff

Today’s initial agreement between DHBs and the PSA on pay equity for clerical and administration staff is an important step toward better, fairer pay for this crucial and largely female workforce, Health Minister Andrew Little says. More>>


New Zealand Government: Speech From The Throne

It is my privilege to exercise the prerogative of Her Majesty the Queen and open the 53rd Parliament.
In the October election, New Zealanders elected a majority Government for the first time under our Mixed Member Proportional electoral system... More>>

Grant Robertson: Government To Review Housing Settings

New Zealand’s stronger-than-expected economic performance has flowed through to housing demand, so the Government will review housing settings to improve access to the market, the Finance Minister Grant Robertson announced today. “Our focus More>>


Media: Stuff Holds Itself Accountable For Wrongs To Māori

Stuff has today published the results of an investigation into itself, and issued a public apology, for the way the media organisation has portrayed Māori, the indigenous people of Aotearoa New Zealand, from its first editions to now. Tā Mātou Pono | More>>

New Zealand Government: To Declare A Climate Emergency

The Government will declare a climate emergency next week, Climate Change Minister James Shaw said today. “We are in the midst of a climate crisis that will impact on nearly every aspect of our lives and the type of planet our children will inherit ... More>>


Economy: Crown Accounts Reflect Govt’s Careful Economic Management

The better-than-expected Crown accounts released today show the Government’s careful management of the COVID-19 health crisis was the right approach to support the economy. As expected, the Crown accounts for the year to June 2020 show the operating balance ... More>>





InfoPages News Channels