Peters' sacking chances plummet on prediction website

Click for big version

Stocks in Winston Peters' sacking fell sharply in record trading on iPredict following Helen Clark's decision not to sack Mr Peters this morning.

In the minutes following the Prime Minister's announcement, traders dumped Peters stock, indicating a view that Mr Peters may not lose his job in the run up to the election.

As Miss Clark delivered her statement, stock in Mr Peters’ sacking was trading at 92 cents, meaning traders gave a 92% probability that Mr Peters would resign or be sacked as Minister of Foreign Affairs.

Within 30 minutes of Miss Clark's announcement, the Peters stock had dropped to 78 cents, recovered to 82 cents by mid-afternoon, then plunged to 69 cents at 7pm tonight (Thursday 11 September).

More than 10,000 stocks in Mr Peters' resignation or sacking were traded, a site record.

iPredict’s Chief Executive, Matt Burgess, said dramatic price changes reflected the importance of the new information as it arrived.

"These price changes are traders' reactions to new information. Trading measures the effect of the Prime Minister's announcement, which is precisely why we run iPredict."

Click for big version

Labour's re-election likelihood increased 3 cents to 26 cents after Miss Clark's announcement, indicating a 26% likelihood of a Labour-led government next year.

iPredict launched on September 9 and is owned by Victoria University and the Institute for the Study of Competition and Regulation (ISCR). It is authorised by the Securities Commission as a futures dealer. The primary purpose of iPredict is research and education.

Anybody can browse iPredict and see the predictions for free by going to www.iPredict.co.nz. Traders must be 18 years and older to set up an account. Accounts are free to set up and people can start trading with as little as $5.

ENDS

© Scoop Media