Gordon Campbell | Parliament TV | Parliament Today | News Video | Crime | Employers | Housing | Immigration | Legal | Local Govt. | Maori | Welfare | Unions | Youth | Search


Poll result has major impact on Labour's chances


Shock poll result has major impact on Labour's chances

A shock poll showing National leading Labour by just three points has significantly boosted Labour's chances of leading the next government, according to iPredict traders.

The Morgan Poll released on Friday showed National's support at 40.5 percent with Labour on 37.5 percent. Traders on New Zealand’s online predictions market iPredict reacted instantly to news of the poll, moving Labour's likelihood of leading the next government up to 29%, with National's chances of leading falling six percentage points to 71%.

"Traders seem to be attaching significant weight to the Morgan Poll. They believe Labour is still in the race to lead in 2009. The Labour contract has been one of our most actively traded stocks, yet prices have been steady. A movement of this magnitude is unprecedented since trading began in September," said iPredict CEO Matt Burgess.

Contracts on iPredict pay $1 each if a defined event comes true. The prices that these contracts trade for on the iPredict exchange is the prediction and reflects the wisdom of crowds. Contract PM.LABOUR, which pays $1 if Labour leads the next government, is trading at $0.29, which can be interpreted as a 29% likelihood at a given time of Labour winning the election.

iPredict is owned by Victoria University and the Institute for the Study of Competition and Regulation. It is authorised by the Securities Commission as a futures dealer. The primary purpose of iPredict is research and education. Anybody can browse iPredict and see the predictions for free by going to www.iPredict.co.nz. Traders must be 18 years and older to set up an account. Accounts are free to set up and people can start trading with as little as $5.


© Scoop Media

Parliament Headlines | Politics Headlines | Regional Headlines

Gordon Campbell: On Budget 2022

At base, the political biffo back and forth on the merits of Budget 2022 comes down to only one thing. Who is the better manager of the economy and better steward of social wellbeing – National or Labour? In its own quiet way, the Treasury has buried a fascinating answer to the “who’s best at running an economy during a crisis?” question, at page 57 of the Fiscal Strategy section...


Government: Helps Supermarket Shoppers Get A Fair Deal
Urgent Budget night legislation to stop major supermarkets blocking competitors from accessing land for new stores has been introduced today, Minister of Commerce and Consumer Affairs Dr David Clark said... More>>

Budget 2022: A Secure Future In Difficult Times
Budget 2022 will help build a high wage, low emissions economy that provides greater economic security, while providing support to households affected by cost of living pressures... More>>


Budget: Climate Investments Provide Path To Economic Security
The Government is investing in New Zealand’s economic security by ensuring climate change funding moves away from short-term piecemeal responses and towards smart, long-term investment... More>>


National: Jacqui Dean To Retire From Parliament In 2023

Waitaki MP Jacqui Dean has announced that she will not be seeking re-election at the 2023 election. “I have advised the President and Leader of the National Party that I have decided not to put my name forward... More>>

Classification Office: Following Decision To Ban Manifesto The Buffalo Mass Shooting Livestream Is Now Banned
The livestream video of yesterday’s mass shooting in the United States has now been banned, Acting Chief Censor Rupert Ablett-Hampson announced this morning. The decision follows on from his decision yesterday to call in and ban the ‘manifesto... More>>

Borders: New Zealand Poised To Welcome International Students Back
New Zealand is fully reopening to international students and the Government is committed to help reinvigorate and strengthen the sector, Education Minister Chris Hipkins said today... More>>




InfoPages News Channels