iPredict Ltd 2011 Election Update #5
iPredict Ltd 2011 Election Update #5
3 December 2010
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE www.ipredict.co.nz
John Key will lead a National/Act government with 61 seats in a 121-seat Parliament after the next General Election, this week's snapshot of New Zealand's prediction market, iPredict Ltd, indicates.
The market continues to forecast that the General Election will be held in Q4 2011 (76%, down from 78% last week), with a 19% probability of an early election in Q3 2011 (down from 21% last week) and a 5% probability of an early election in Q2 2011.
Forecast party vote shares are: National 44.5% (down from 45.0% last week), Labour 35.4% (down from 36.6% last week), Greens 8.2% (down from 8.3% last week), New Zealand First 4.2% (down from 4.5% last week), Maori Party 2.8% (down from 3.1% last week), Act 2.8% (up from 2.4% last week) and UnitedFuture 0.3% (steady).
The probability of Act Leader Rodney Hide winning Epsom for his party continues to rise. The market now indicates he has a 60% probability of retaining the seat for Act, up from 55% last week and 52% the week before.
National remains favoured in Ohariu, continuing to have a 37% probability of winning the seat, although the probability of it being retained by UnitedFuture Leader Peter Dunne has moved up this week to 35%, up from 34% last week.
The Maori Party is forecast to retain all five of its seats and Labour is forecast to retain Hauraki-Waikato. The result in Ikaroa-Rawhiti is too close to call, with Labour marginally favoured the last time the stock was traded.
Winston Peters is not forecast to win a seat in Parliament.
Based on this data, the market is now forecasting the following Parliament: National 57 MPs, Labour 45 MPs, Greens 10 MPs, Maori Party 5 MPs and Act 4 MPs. There would be 121 MPs, requiring a government to have the support of 61 MPs on confidence and supply.
National and Act would have a combined 61 MPs and could govern with or without the Maori Party.
The market continues to forecast a National prime minister (78% probability, down from 79% last week).
The election remains close and iPredict has again analysed what parliamentary balance would exist in all possible combinations of results in the Epsom, Ohariu and Ikaroa-Rawhiti electorates.
In all scenarios in which Rodney Hide does not win Epsom - regardless of what happens in Ohariu and Ikaroa-Rawhiti - the Maori Party would hold the balance of power and both a National-led or a Labour-led government would be possible.
In three of the four scenarios in which Mr Hide wins Epsom, a National-led government would be assured with Act and United Future. However, in the fourth scenario - the Maori Party winning Ikaroa-Rawhiti and Mr Dunne not winning Ohariu - the Maori Party would have a choice between formally or tacitly supporting a National/Act government, or creating a hung parliament leading to new elections.
The probabilities of by-elections before the General Election in Manurewa and Botany have plunged this week. The market now indicates there is only a 50% probability of a by-election in Manurewa (down from 72% last week) and just a 42% probability of a by-election in Botany (down from 60% last week).
The probability of a by-election in Te Atatu is down to 23%, from 26% last week.
There is an 80% probability voters will elect to retain the MMP voting system in the referendum to be held on election day, down from 81% probability last week.
iPredict is owned by Viclink, the commercial arm of Victoria University of Wellington. Details on the company and the two new stocks can be found at www.ipredict.co.nz
The company will be providing full election coverage next year, including of every electorate race in the country. Bundles of contracts for every electorate will be launched progressively through to the end of March. Contract bundles for Ilam, New Plymouth, Tukituki and Wigram will be launched at 2.30 pm today.
The weekly political snapshot is taken at a random time each week to avoid market manipulation by political parties. This week's was taken at 8.30 am today.