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Will a new left or right political party be launched?

10 December 2010

Will a new left or right political party be launched?

New Zealand's prediction market, iPredict Ltd, will tomorrow launch new stocks aimed at predicting whether or not a new left-wing or new right-wing party will be launched before next year's General Election. Trading will begin at 8.00 am tomorrow (Saturday 11 December) New Zealand Time.

The Chief Executive of iPredict, Matt Burgess, said there had been significant speculation about the possibility of a new left-wing political party centred on former Alliance President and current Unite National Secretary Matt McCarten, former Green MP Sue Bradford and current Maori Party MP Hone Harawira.

Speculation on a possible right-wing party has centred on former National Party leader and Reserve Bank Governor Don Brash.

"If either of these parties gets off the ground, they could have very significant impacts on the chances of the Green and Act parties being returned to Parliament next year; the levels of support likely to be achieved by the National, Labour and Maori parties; the result of next year's General Election and post-election coalition bargaining," Mr Burgess said.

"The new contracts will provide an insight into the likelihood of either being launched."

The draft contract for the new left-wing party will pay $1 if a new party is registered with the Electoral Commission by writ day for the 2011 General Election, of which at least two of Mr McCarten, Ms Bradford and Mr Harawira are publicly-declared members.

The draft contract for the new right-wing party will pay $1 if a new party is registered with the Electoral Commission by writ day for the 2011 General Election, of which Dr Brash is a publicly-declared member.

The price of the contracts at any given time will indicate the probability of the parties being established.

The precise wording of the draft contracts will be available for comment this afternoon on the iPredict Forum at https://www.ipredict.co.nz/app.php?do=forum before they are finalised and launched for trading tomorrow.

"Wherever possible, iPredict crowd-sources our contract definitions using our forums. Our traders know New Zealand politics and usually point us to aspects of the political process the contract should take into account. In the end, that means more accurate forecasting," Mr Burgess said.

iPredict is owned by Viclink, the commercial arm of Victoria University of Wellington, and operates with authorisation from the Securities Commission. Details on the company and the stock can be found at www.ipredict.co.nz

The company's market has a 90% record of success in predicting future economic and political events.


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