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Will Party Leaders Survive Through to the Election?

Will Party Leaders Survive Through to the Election?

New Zealand's prediction market, iPredict Ltd, will today launch new stocks predicting whether current party leaders will lead their parties into the next General Election. Trading will begin at 2.00 pm today (Monday 13 December) New Zealand Time.

Eight stocks will ask whether Peter Dunne, Phil Goff, Rodney Hide, John Key, Russel Norman, Pita Sharples, Tariana Turia and Metiria Turei will lose their positions as Leader or co-Leader of their party before the 2011 General Election. Stocks will pay $1 per share if the leader departs.

The Chief Executive of iPredict, Matt Burgess, said iPredict had existing stocks on party leadership which had attracted high volumes and interest but which would expire on 31 December 2010. The new stocks would allow traders to continue to forecast party leaderships through to the 2011 General Election.

The draft binary stocks would be put on iPredict's forum at https://www.ipredict.co.nz/app.php?do=forum for discussion this morning before being finalised and launched at 2.00 pm.

The price of the contracts at any given time will indicate the probability of the individual losing their position. All stocks will commence trading at 10 cents.

"After that, the market will set the price and that will tell us who is more or less likely to go," Mr Burgess said.

A stock would not be launched for Progressive Party Leader Jim Anderton as he is retiring at the next election.

iPredict is owned by Viclink, the commercial arm of Victoria University of Wellington, and operates with authorisation from the Securities Commission. Details on the company and the stock can be found at www.ipredict.co.nz

The company's market has a 90% record of success in predicting future economic and political events.


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