10 July 2011

Media release

Maori Post Election Coalition Preferences

Maori most want the Mana and Maori parties, if they have seats in Parliament after the election, not to enter a National cabinet.

They prefer them to join a Labour cabinet, or support a government on an issue by issue basis, according to a specialist Horizon Research
Maori Panel survey of 481 Maori in the four weeks ending July 6.

A parallel HorizonPoll survey of voting age New Zealanders of all ethnicities indicates the new Mana Party could attract 2.2% of the party vote, the Maori Party 0.9%.

This means Mana could have two to three seats in the next Parliament, if it wins an electorate seat.

Maori coalition government arrangement preferences are set against a feeling among 63.9% of Maori that the country is on the wrong track, 58.2% disapproval of Government economic management and concerns among 38% that their personal incomes will fall this year. A majority (56.9%) also feel their households are financially worse off than a year ago.

As the country heads to a November 26 general election, only 16.1% of Maori want the Maori Party to again accept Cabinet seats in a National led Government. Some 43.5% would prefer the Maori Party to accept Cabinet seats in a Labour led Government.

Only 9.7% want Mana to accept Cabinet seats in a National led Government, 38.7% in a Labour led one. Between 21.1% and 25.7% of Maori want the Maori and Mana parties not to accept seats in either National or Labour led governments.

There is a preference among 30.3% of Maori for the Maori Party, and 30.2% for the Mana Party, to offer support to a government on an issue by issue basis.

Horizon Research nationwide Net Potential Vote poll results, which include those with a party choice, and undecided voters with a preference, and exclude those who are not registered to vote or don’t intend to vote, indicate National will again need to make arrangements with minor parties in order to form a government.

A net 5.3% remain registered, intend to vote but undecided, while another 11.4% won’t say how they currently feel when asked how they would cast their party vote if a general election were held tomorrow. The choices made by these people will determine which main party will form the next Government.

More details are attached or at http://www.horizonpoll.co.nz/page/139/maori-post-e

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