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iPredict 2011 Daily Election Update #1

iPredict Ltd
2011 Daily Election Update #1
14 November 2011

Main Movers

* Act way up in Epsom
* Winston Peters improves chances
* Sue Bradford set to return to Parliament

After a symbolic cup of tea with the Prime Minister, Act Party candidate John Banks has increased the probability he will win Epsom to 79%, up from as low as 52% just a couple of weeks ago. The chance that New Zealand First Leader Winston Peters will return to Parliament is at a long-time high at 30% probability and New Zealand First is now predicted to receive 3.8% of the party vote. The newly formed Mana Party is now expected to bring in three MPs, meaning welfare spokesperson and ex-Green MP Sue Bradford will make her way back into Parliament.

The Parties

National 47.0% -1.5% 60 MPs
Labour 28.1% -0.4% 36 MPs
Greens 11.3% n/c 14 MPs
New Zealand First 3.8% -0.3% 0 MPs
Act 3.2% -0.5% 4 MPs
Mana Party 2.0% -0.3% 3 MPs
Conservative 1.7% +0.3% 0 MPs
Maori Party 1.3% -0.1% 3 MPs
UnitedFuture 1.0% n/c 1 MP

Stratos: iPredict Election 2011

Stratos Sky 89, Freeview 21: 7.00 pm tonight
Guests: John Tamihere and Matthew Hooton
Topics: 1) Will National receive 50% or more of the Party Vote?
2) Will Winston Peters be back in Parliament?
3) Who will be the next Labour leader?

Fine Print

iPredict is owned by Victoria University of Wellington. Details on the company and its stocks can be found at www.ipredict.co.nz The company is providing full election coverage this year, with contract bundles for the party vote and for every electorate race in the country now available for trading, along with other contract bundles on a wide range of economic, political and social issues. The daily election snapshot replaces the weekly political snapshot for the final two weeks of the election campaign. It is at a random time each day to avoid market manipulation by political parties or activists. Today's was taken at 11:30 am.


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