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Who will get into bed with whom? - iPredict

Who will get into bed with whom?

New Zealand's online predictions market, iPredict, will today launch new stocks asking which major party each of the small parties will support after the election, or whether they will prefer to be in opposition.

The first bundle of stocks will focus on the Green Party, and iPredict's 6000 registered traders - plus anyone else who signs up as a trader for free - will be able to begin trading them at 10.30 am.

Bundles of stocks for the Act, Mana, Maori, New Zealand First and UnitedFuture parties will be launched through the day.

The stocks will pay $1 if the relevant small party formally agrees with the relevant larger party to either support or abstain on confidence and supply votes after the 2011 General Election. Stocks also ask whether or not the relevant party will choose to remain in opposition.

Drafts of the stocks are currently available for comment on the iPredict forum at https://www.ipredict.co.nz/app.php?do=forum under "Draft Stock Definitions" and comments are welcome until 10.15 am.

The Chief Executive of iPredict, said New Zealand's proportional representation system, MMP, meant post-election negotiations among political parties could have a very important influence on the country's political stability and policy direction.

"These new stocks will be of interest before the election but, if the election is close, they will be of even greater interest in the days and weeks afterwards as politicians negotiate to form a government."

iPredict is owned by Victoria University of Wellington.


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