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iPredict - Political Update Nov 29 - Labour and Cabinet

iPredict Ltd New Zealand Political Update

Tuesday 29 November 2011


Key Points

* Unusual trading in stocks on the next Labour Leader is suggestive of irrational exuberance by supporters of candidates David Parker, David Cunliffe, David Shearer and Grant Robertson - with the sum of the probabilities of the four candidates well over 100%, creating certain profits for traders if they short all these stocks.

* With that proviso, the market suggests Mr Parker remains favourite to replace Phil Goff as Labour leader (https://www.ipredict.co.nz/app.php?do=contract_detail&contract=LABLEAD.PARKER), followed closely by Mr Cunliffe (https://www.ipredict.co.nz/app.php?do=contract_detail&contract=LABLEAD.CUNLIFFE), with Mr Shearer (https://www.ipredict.co.nz/app.php?do=contract_detail&contract=LABLEAD.SHEARER) and Mr Robertson (https://www.ipredictco.nz/app.php?do=contract_detail&contract=LABLEAD.ROBERTSN) well behind.

* iPredict's new stocks on the new Cabinet at https://www.ipredict.co.nz/app.php?do=browse&cat=322 currently suggest that a 20-member Cabinet would consist of:
1. John Key
2. Bill English
3. Gerry Brownlee
4. Steven Joyce
5. Tony Ryall
6. Paula Bennett
7. Judith Collins
8. Hekia Parata
9. Nick Smith
10. Anne Tolley
11. Tim Groser
12. David Carter
13. Jonathan Coleman
14. Murray McCully
15. Craig Foss
16. Amy Adams
17. Phil Heatley
18. Kate Wilkinson
19. Nathan Guy
20. Chris Tremain

* The market suggests a 97% probability Bill English will remain Minister of Finance and an 88% probability that Judith Collins will become Minister of Justice but just a 53% probability Jonathan Coleman will remain Minister of Immigration. New portfolio contracts will be released this afternoon.

* Act, the Maori Party and UnitedFuture all have more than 90% probability of having at least one Minister (in or outside Cabinet) in the next Government.

* New stocks on whether or not final seat allocations will reflect election-night results have been launched at https://www.ipredict.co.nz/app.php?do=browse&cat=318

* Stocks whose payout was determined on election night are being closed progressively through the week.

Fine Print

iPredict is owned by Victoria University of Wellington. Details on the company and its stocks can be found at www.ipredict.co.nz The New Zealand Political Update is published periodically depending on market developments.


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