Gordon Campbell | Parliament TV | Parliament Today | News Video | Crime | Employers | Housing | Immigration | Legal | Local Govt. | Maori | Welfare | Unions | Youth | Search


iPredict Ltd: New Zealand Political Update—30 November 2011

iPredict Ltd: New Zealand Political Update—30 November 2011


Key Points

• National caucus likely to drop to 59 MPs after special votes, making passing legislation marginally more difficult
• Labour favoured for 2014 election, with National's party vote forecast to fall
• Parker favoured for Labour Leader and new 2014 PM stocks launched
• Act, Maori Party and UnitedFuture leaders, and Bridges and Tremain, expected to be Ministers Outside Cabinet
• Adams, Foss and Guy expected to be promoted to Cabinet
• English safe in Finance and Collins set to take Justice
• Brownlee's hold on Economic Development and Energy & Resources less certain
• Tolley and Coleman to lose Education and Immigration
• Commerce up for grabs


There is a 74% probability that official election results will see National drop to 59 MPs, from the 60 MPs indicated on election night. With the Greens favoured to take the extra seat, National would therefore need the support of both Act and UnitedFuture, or the Maori Party, to pass legislation in parliament, compared with just one of these as indicated on election night. Final seat allocation stocks can be traded here.

Labour is now favoured, with 52% probability, to win the 2014 election, with National's party vote expected to fall back to 45.5%. Stocks for the 2014 election can be found here.

The improvement in Labour's longer-term prospects has raised the probability that the contest for the leadership of the Labour Party is a contest for the prime ministership. This has prompted iPredict to launch stocks asking which of the candidates for the party's leadership is most likely to be Prime Minister by 31 December 2014. These can be traded here.

iPredict suggested yesterday that what appeared to be irrational exuberance by supporters of candidates David Parker, David Cunliffe, David Shearer and Grant Robertson had pushed the sum of the probabilities of the four candidates well over 100%, creating certain profits for traders if they shorted all these stocks. The market has since significantly corrected, and Mr Parker is now favoured with a 54% probability of being the next leader, followed by Mr Cunliffe on 37% probability and Mr Shearer on 11% probability. No other candidate has more than a 1% probability of being leader. Labour leadership stocks can be found here.

Act, the Maori Party and UnitedFuture all have more than 90% probability of having at least one Minister (in or outside Cabinet) in the next Government.

iPredict's stocks on the new Cabinet here currently suggest that a 20-member Cabinet would consist (in order of probability) of:

1. Gerry Brownlee (100%)
2. John Key (99%)
3. Bill English (99%)
4. Steven Joyce (98%)
5. Tony Ryall (98%)
6. Christopher Finlayson (98%)
7. Paula Bennett (98%)
8. Judith Collins(98%)
9. Hekia Parata (98%)
10. Anne Tolley (98%)
11. Murray McCully (96%)
12. Tim Groser (96%)
13. Jonathan Coleman (95%)
14. Nick Smith (95%)
15. Amy Adams (93%)
16. Craig Foss (93%)
17. Kate Wilkinson (93%)
18. Nathan Guy (89%)
19. Phil Heatley (89%)
20. David Carter (89%)

Ministers Outside Cabinet are expected to be (in order of probability):

1. Peter Dunne (92%)
2. Tariana Turia (91%)
3. Pita Sharples (90%)
4. John Banks (74%)
5. Simon Bridges (66%)
6. Chris Tremain (66%)

• Bill English remains overwhelmingly favoured to continue as Minister of Finance (98% probability) and Judith Collins remains overwhelmingly favoured to become Minister of Justice (89% probability). Steven Joyce is expected to remain Associate Minister of Finance (85% probability).

• Gerry Brownlee is favoured to retain his Minister for Economic Development portfolio, with 60% probability, but he appears to be in a contest with Hekia Parata to retain his Energy & Resources portfolio, with just 48% probability compared with 45% probability for Ms Parata.

• Anne Tolley and Jonathan Coleman are expected to lose their Education and Immigration portfolios, with only 20% and 21% chances respectively of keeping those jobs.

• Early trading in Minister of Commerce stocks here suggests the portfolio is up for grabs. Stocks for Agriculture, Fisheries and State-Owned Enterprises have been launched this morning and further portfolio bundles will be launched through the day. All ministerial stocks can be traded here.

• Stocks whose payout was determined on election night are being closed progressively through the week.

iPredict is owned by Victoria University of Wellington. Details on the company and its stocks can be found at www.ipredict.co.nz The New Zealand Political Update is published periodically depending on market developments.


© Scoop Media

Parliament Headlines | Politics Headlines | Regional Headlines

Covid-19, 17/9: 1,007 Overall Cases, 4,500,000+ Vaccine Doses Administered

11 new cases of Covid-19 have been identified in Auckland today. 535 so far have recovered from their cases in Auckland alongside 15 of 17 in Wellington... More>>


Gordon Campbell: On the moral and scientific case against Covid booster shots

A year ago, a Covid vaccine was still on humanity’s wish list. Now, we’re basing our economic planning - and the safety of opening our borders – on the ability of the new Covid vaccines to reduce infection, hospitalisation and death. Given this reliance and in the face of an evolving virus, there is a lot of anxiety about how well the vaccines protect us, and for how long. Will we need booster shots, and how soon..? More>>


Trans-Tasman: Quarantine-free travel with Australia to remain suspended for a further 8 weeks
The suspension of quarantine-free travel (QFT) with Australia has been extended, given the current Delta outbreaks, COVID-19 Response Minister Chris Hipkins said today. “When QFT was established with Australia, both our countries had very few recent cases of COVID-19 community transmission... More>>

Auckland: School holidays remain unchanged

School holidays in Auckland will continue to be held at the same time as the rest of the country, starting from Saturday, 2 October, Education Minister Chris Hipkins said today. “I’ve carefully considered advice on the implications of shifting the dates and concluded that on balance, maintaining the status quo is the best course of action... More>>


Government: Timeline confirmed for Emissions Reductions Plan

Cabinet has agreed to begin consulting on the Emissions Reduction Plan in early October and require that the final plan be released by the end of May next year in line with the 2022 Budget, the Minister of Climate Change, James Shaw confirmed today... More>>


Power: Bill Changes Bring Fairness To Charges

A key recommendation of an independent panel to make electricity charges fairer across all households will be put in place, the Energy and Resources Minister Megan Woods has announced... More>>

Government: Parks expiry of licenses, WoFs and regos
As a result of the Delta outbreak, driver licences, Warrants of Fitness (WoFs), Certificates of Fitness (CoFs), vehicle licences (‘regos’) and licence endorsements that expired on or after 21 July 2021 will be valid until 30 November 2021, Transport Minister Michael Wood has announced today... More>>

Child Poverty Action Group: Highest jump in weekly benefit numbers since first lockdown

The current lockdown has triggered the largest weekly increase in benefit recipient numbers since the first lockdown last year, and Child Poverty Action Group is concerned the Government isn't doing enough to assist affected families... More>>




InfoPages News Channels