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iPredict: Cunliffe for Labour Leader; Shearer for Labour PM

Wednesday 30 November 2011

Latest Developments:

* Cunliffe favoured to be next Labour Leader
* Shearer favoured to be Prime Minister by 2015
* Joyce for Minister of Economic Development with Brownlee retaining Canterbury Earthquake portfolio
* Nick Smith to retain Environment and ACC
* Parata favoured for Education and Adams for Immigration
* Goff favoured to be next Ambassador to China


Labour Leadership

After last night's TVNZ debate, David Cunliffe is now favoured to be the next leader of the Labour Party, with 42% probability, followed by David Shearer and David Parker who are both on 31% probability. Grant Robertson trails with 5% probability. With the sum of these probabilities exceeding 100%, irrational exuberance or attempts to manipulate the market by supporters of the candidates are likely, and traders can make certain profits by shorting all four stocks. Labour leadership stocks can be traded at https://www.ipredict.co.nz/app.php?do=browse&cat=34 and https://www.ipredict.co.nz/app.php?do=browse&cat=71

2014 Election & Next Prime Minister

The contest between the four Labour contenders continues to have special significance with Labour remaining favoured to win the 2014 election, with 53% probability. National's party vote is forecast to be just 43.5%, down from 45.5% yesterday and 48.0% on election night on Saturday. David Shearer has a 23% probability of being Prime Minister by 1 January 2015, compared with Bill English (14%), David Cunliffe (13%) and David Parker (7%). Stocks for the 2014 election can be traded at https://www.ipredict.co.nz/app.php?do=browse&cat=319

Final 2011 Results

There is now a 77% probability (up from 74% yesterday) that official 2011 election results will see National drop to 59 MPs, from the 60 MPs indicated on election night. The Greens continue to be favoured to take the extra seat so that National would need the support of both Act and UnitedFuture, or the Maori Party, to pass legislation, compared with just one of these as indicated on election night. Final seat allocation stocks can be traded at https://www.ipredict.co.nz/app.php?do=browse&cat=318

The Government

Act, the Maori Party and UnitedFuture all have more than 90% probability of having at least one Minister (in or outside Cabinet) in the next Government.

iPredict's stocks on the new Cabinet at https://www.ipredict.co.nz/app.php?do=browse&cat=322 currently suggest that a 20-member Cabinet would consist (in order of probability) of:
1. John Key (100%)
2. Bill English (100%)
3. Gerry Brownlee (100%)
4. Tony Ryall (100%)
5. Murray McCully (100%)
6. Tim Groser (100%)
7. Steven Joyce (98%)
8. Christopher Finlayson (98%)
9. Paula Bennett (98%)
10. Judith Collins(98%)
11. Hekia Parata (98%)
12. Jonathan Coleman (95%)
13. Amy Adams (95%)
14. Nick Smith (95%)
15. Anne Tolley (94%)
16. Craig Foss (93%)
17. Kate Wilkinson (93%)
18. Nathan Guy (90%)
19. Phil Heatley (90%)
20. David Carter (90%)

Ministers Outside Cabinet are expected to be (in order of probability):
1. Peter Dunne (95%)
2. Pita Sharples (92%)
3. John Banks (92%)
4. Tariana Turia (91%)
5. Simon Bridges (84%)
6. Maurice Williamson (74%)
7. Chris Tremain (68%)


Bill English remains overwhelmingly favoured to continue as Minister of Finance (98% probability). Steven Joyce is expected to remain Associate Minister of Finance (73% probability).

Steven Joyce (65% probability) has also replaced Gerry Brownlee (30% probability) as favourite to be Minister for Economic Development. Mr Brownlee remains overwhelmingly favoured (84% probability) to retain the Canterbury Earthquake Recovery portfolio. Energy & Resources continues to be a contest between Mr Brownlee (48% probability) and Hekia Parata (45% probability). Tony Ryall is favoured to remain Minister for SOEs, but with only 47% probability.

Nick Smith has an 83% probability of remaining Minister for the Environment and a 60% probability of remaining Minister for ACC. Phil Heatley has a 95% probability of remaining Minister of Fisheries and David Carter an 86% probability of remaining Minister of Agriculture. Judith Collins remains overwhelmingly favoured to become Minister of Justice (81% probability) and is favoured to become Minister of Commerce, with 47% probability.

The probability Anne Tolley will remain Minister of Education has fallen over the last 24 hours, from 20% yesterday to 16% today. Hekia Parata is favoured to take the portfolio (50% probability) followed by "other" (31% probability).

Jonathan Coleman has only a 2% probability of remaining Minister of Immigration. Amy Adams is favoured to pick up the portfolio with 50% probability, followed by Kate Wilkinson on 23% probability.

New stocks have been launched this morning on the Local Government and Land Information portfolios. All ministerial stocks can be traded at https://www.ipredict.co.nz/app.php?do=browse&cat=318

Diplomatic Appointments

Phil Goff (39% probability) is favoured to be the next Ambassador to China (see https://www.ipredict.co.nz/app.php?do=browse&cat=162)

Fine Print

2011 Election stocks whose payout was determined on election night are being closed progressively through the week.

iPredict is owned by Victoria University of Wellington. Details on the company and its stocks can be found at www.ipredict.co.nz The New Zealand Political Update is published periodically depending on market developments.


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