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iPredict 6/12/11: Joyce to be "Minister for Everything"

Tuesday 6 December 2011

Latest Developments:

* Shearer/Robertson ticket favoured for Labour leadership and Labour narrowly ahead for 2014 election
* 14% probability Cunliffe will resign from Parliament by April
* Maori Party to provide support or abstention to National and have at least one Minister in the Government
* Joyce set to be "Minister for Everything" being favoured for Economic Development, Associate Finance, Energy & Resources, Transport, and Science & Innovation
* Goodhew expected to be Government Chief Whip
* 55% probability Key will leave National leadership in 2014 or 2015


Labour Party Leadership & Next Prime Minister

David Shearer continues to be favoured to be the next Labour leader, with 68% probability (down from 70% on Friday). His deputy is forecast to be Grant Robertson, with 48% probability. There is a 14% probability his rival, David Cunliffe, will resign from Parliament before 1 April 2012 and a 52% probability the Prime Minister after the 2014 election will be a Labour Party MP (down from 57% last week). Labour leadership stocks can be traded at https://www.ipredict.co.nz/app.php?do=browse&cat=1. Stocks for the 2014 election can be traded at https://www.ipredict.co.nz/app.php?do=browse&cat=319.

Final 2011 Results

National continues to be forecast, now with 80% probability, to lose a seat once special votes are counted, taking its caucus down to 59 MPs from the election night 60. The Greens continue to be favoured to take the extra seat which would mean that National would need the ongoing support of both Act and UnitedFuture, or the Maori Party, to pass legislation, compared with just one of these as indicated on election night. Final seat allocation stocks can be traded at https://www.ipredict.co.nz/app.php?do=browse&cat=318.

The Government

As forecast by iPredict, with more than 90% probability, Prime Minister John Key has announced that both Act and UnitedFuture will support the Government on confidence and supply and have at least one Minister in the new Government. The market now indicates that there is a 97% probability that the Maori Party will also reach an arrangement with the new Government that sees it support it or abstain on confidence and supply (see https://www.ipredict.co.nz/app.php?do=contract_detail&contract=CS.MAORI.NAT). There is a 92% probability there will be at least one Maori Party Minister (in or outside Cabinet) in the new Government (see https://www.ipredict.co.nz/app.php?do=contract_detail&contract=MIN.MAORI.12). There continues to be just a 2.5% probability the Green Party will have a Minister (in or outside Cabinet) in the new Government. Stocks on which parties will provide Ministers can be traded at https://www.ipredict.co.nz/app.php?do=browse&cat=309.

The probability that Dr Pita Sharples will be a Minister Outside Cabinet has recovered to 50% from 11% on Friday (compared with 92% on Thursday). The probability Te Ururoa Flavell will become a Minister Outside Cabinet has fallen to 37% from 69% probability on Friday.

iPredict's stocks on the new Cabinet, Ministers Outside Cabinet and portfolios (see https://www.ipredict.co.nz/app.php?do=browse&cat=318) continue to be fairly stable and the shape of the new Government is emerging as follows:

Probability, Name, Portfolios (probability)
100% John Key: Prime Minister (na); Tourism (92%)
100% Bill English: Finance (98%); Infrastructure (76%)
100% Murray McCully: Foreign Affairs (94%)
100% Tim Groser: Trade (98%)
99% Gerry Brownlee: Leader of the House (91%); Canterbury Earthquake Recovery (82%)
98% Steven Joyce: Economic Development (89%); Associate Finance (70%); Energy & Resources (45%); Transport (41%); Science & Innovation (23%)
98% Tony Ryall: Health (94%); State Services (48%); SOEs (30%)
98% Christopher Finlayson: Attorney-General (95%); Treaty of Waitangi Negotiations (95%)
98% Paula Bennett
98% Judith Collins: Justice (90%); Corrections (55%); Veterans' Affairs (40%); Commerce (39%)
98% Hekia Parata: Education (79%)
94% Amy Adams
94% Nick Smith: Environment (94%); Climate Change Issues (83%)
93% Anne Tolley: Police (52%)
93% Jonathan Coleman: ACC (55%)
93% Kate Wilkinson
92% Craig Foss
89% Phil Heatley: Fisheries (98%)
88% Nathan Guy
88% David Carter: Agriculture (77%); Forestry (70%)

Probability, Name, Portfolios (probability)
na Peter Dunne: Revenue (na); Associate Health (na); Associate Conservation (na)
na John Banks: Regulatory Reform (na); Small Business (na); Associate Education (na); Associate Commerce (na)
85% Tariana Turia
70% Maurice Williamson: Land Information (66%)
70% Simon Bridges
63% Chris Tremain: Consumer Affairs (37%)
50% Pita Sharples: Maori Affairs (52%)

The Defence and Local Government portfolios are up for grabs after the retirements of Wayne Mapp and Rodney Hide respectively. Amy Adams has a 27% probability of being appointed to the Defence portfolio, but "other" has a 52% probability. Craig Foss has a 17% probability of being awarded Local Government, but "other" has a 33% probability. Immigration is also up for grabs, with incumbant Jonathan Coleman having only an 8.3% probability of retaining the portfolio, but his replacement is unknown. Amy Adams has a 25% chance of the job but "other" has a 31% probability.

The probability a Minister will depart in 2012 is 86%. National's Chief Whip is expected to be Jo Goodhew (66%). New portfolio stocks will be released progressively for the rest of this week.

Diplomatic Appointments

The probability Phil Goff will be the next Ambassador to China has fallen back to 35% from 50% last week (see https://www.ipredict.co.nz/app.php?do=browse&cat=162). The leading MFAT candidate is Grahame Morton (15%).

National Party Leadership

John Key is strongly expected to remain Leader of the National Party until 2014, with only a combined 10.3% probability he will depart before then. There continues to be a 40% probability he will depart in 2014 and a 15% probability he will depart in 2015 (see https://www.ipredict.co.nz/app.php?do=browse&cat=143). Independent of the timing of his departure, Judith Collins is favoured to replace him with 23% probability followed by Simon Bridges (20%) and Steven Joyce (14%). Stocks on the next National leader can be traded at https://www.ipredict.co.nz/app.php?do=browse&cat=155.

Fine Print

2011 Election stocks whose payout was determined on election night are being closed progressively through the week.

iPredict is owned by Victoria University of Wellington. Details on the company and its stocks can be found at www.ipredict.co.nz. The New Zealand Political Update is published periodically depending on market developments.


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