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iPredict Ltd New Zealand Political Update 13 December 2011

iPredict Ltd New Zealand Political Update 13 December 2011


Latest Forecasts:

• Shearer favoured to become Prime Minister in 2014
• Woodhouse to be National Chief Whip
• Minister expected to depart in 2012
• One-third chance Goff is off to China
• Speaker Smith to throw Peters out of Parliament by mid-March
• Parata emerges as contender for National leadership, with Key expected to step down in 2014 or 2015


Next Election Result & Prime Minister

As strongly forecast by iPredict since soon after last month's New Zealand General Election, David Shearer and Grant Robertson were today elected leader and deputy leader of the New Zealand Labour Party (see iPredict's performance on the stocks here and here).

The Labour Party now has a 53% probability of forming a Government after the 2014 election (click here).

The National Party's party vote is currently expected to drop to 43.5% in 2014 (click here), while Labour's party vote is expected to be 33% (click here) and the Greens' party vote forecast to be 11% (click here).

Mr Shearer himself has a 40% probability of being Prime Minister on 1 January 2015 (click here) while his deputy has a 14% probability of getting the very top job, which would require him to first replace Mr Shearer as leader of the Party (click here).

Stocks, based exactly on those for the National Party launched on 10 November 2011, will now be launched asking how long Mr Shearer will be leader of the Labour Party and who is the most likely candidate to replace him.

The Government

iPredict exactly forecast the membership of the new Cabinet, announced by Prime Minister John Key this week and accurately forecast the allocation of most portfolios (click here). The biggest error in iPredict's forecasting was its failure to predict Chester Borrows' appointment as a Minister, but this was caused not by market failure but by him not being offered as an option for a Minister Outside Cabinet.

The Executive as announced by Mr Key is set to change next year. The probability a Minister will depart in 2012 is 84% (click here).

There is a 35% probability that Phil Goff will be the next Ambassador to China (click here). The leading MFAT candidate continues to be Grahame Morton (15%).


Incumbent Speaker Lockwood Smith has a 98% probability of retaining the job when Parliament sits next week (click here). There is a 52% probability he or another presiding officer will throw Winston Peters out of the House of Representatives by 17 March 2012 and a 69% probability Mr Peters will be ordered to leave the House of Representatives by 31 March 2012 (https://www.ipredict.co.nz/app.php?do=contract_detail&contract=WP.LEAVE.31MAR12).

Michael Woodhouse is overwhelmingly favoured to be National's Chief Whip (click here). Stocks forecasting Select Committee chairs will begin to be launched over the next 24 hours.

National Party Leadership

There is only a 7.4% probability that John Key will depart the National leadership in 2012 or 2013. The probability he will leave the leadership in 2014 or 2015 is 63% (click here).

Independent of the timing of his departure, the favourites to replace him are Judith Collins (39% probability), Hekia Parata (20% probability), Steven Joyce (11% probability) and Simon Bridges (11% probability). Stocks on the next National leader can be traded here.

Fine Print

iPredict is owned by Victoria University of Wellington. Details on the company and its stocks can be found at www.ipredict.co.nz. The New Zealand Political Update is published periodically depending on market developments.


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