Gordon Campbell | Parliament TV | Parliament Today | News Video | Crime | Employers | Housing | Immigration | Legal | Local Govt. | Maori | Welfare | Unions | Youth | Search

 

iPredict Ltd New Zealand Political Update 13 December 2011

iPredict Ltd New Zealand Political Update 13 December 2011

www.ipredict.co.nz

Latest Forecasts:

• Shearer favoured to become Prime Minister in 2014
• Woodhouse to be National Chief Whip
• Minister expected to depart in 2012
• One-third chance Goff is off to China
• Speaker Smith to throw Peters out of Parliament by mid-March
• Parata emerges as contender for National leadership, with Key expected to step down in 2014 or 2015

Details:

Next Election Result & Prime Minister

As strongly forecast by iPredict since soon after last month's New Zealand General Election, David Shearer and Grant Robertson were today elected leader and deputy leader of the New Zealand Labour Party (see iPredict's performance on the stocks here and here).

The Labour Party now has a 53% probability of forming a Government after the 2014 election (click here).

The National Party's party vote is currently expected to drop to 43.5% in 2014 (click here), while Labour's party vote is expected to be 33% (click here) and the Greens' party vote forecast to be 11% (click here).

Mr Shearer himself has a 40% probability of being Prime Minister on 1 January 2015 (click here) while his deputy has a 14% probability of getting the very top job, which would require him to first replace Mr Shearer as leader of the Party (click here).

Stocks, based exactly on those for the National Party launched on 10 November 2011, will now be launched asking how long Mr Shearer will be leader of the Labour Party and who is the most likely candidate to replace him.

The Government

iPredict exactly forecast the membership of the new Cabinet, announced by Prime Minister John Key this week and accurately forecast the allocation of most portfolios (click here). The biggest error in iPredict's forecasting was its failure to predict Chester Borrows' appointment as a Minister, but this was caused not by market failure but by him not being offered as an option for a Minister Outside Cabinet.

The Executive as announced by Mr Key is set to change next year. The probability a Minister will depart in 2012 is 84% (click here).

There is a 35% probability that Phil Goff will be the next Ambassador to China (click here). The leading MFAT candidate continues to be Grahame Morton (15%).

Parliament

Incumbent Speaker Lockwood Smith has a 98% probability of retaining the job when Parliament sits next week (click here). There is a 52% probability he or another presiding officer will throw Winston Peters out of the House of Representatives by 17 March 2012 and a 69% probability Mr Peters will be ordered to leave the House of Representatives by 31 March 2012 (https://www.ipredict.co.nz/app.php?do=contract_detail&contract=WP.LEAVE.31MAR12).

Michael Woodhouse is overwhelmingly favoured to be National's Chief Whip (click here). Stocks forecasting Select Committee chairs will begin to be launched over the next 24 hours.

National Party Leadership

There is only a 7.4% probability that John Key will depart the National leadership in 2012 or 2013. The probability he will leave the leadership in 2014 or 2015 is 63% (click here).

Independent of the timing of his departure, the favourites to replace him are Judith Collins (39% probability), Hekia Parata (20% probability), Steven Joyce (11% probability) and Simon Bridges (11% probability). Stocks on the next National leader can be traded here.

Fine Print

iPredict is owned by Victoria University of Wellington. Details on the company and its stocks can be found at www.ipredict.co.nz. The New Zealand Political Update is published periodically depending on market developments.

ENDS

© Scoop Media

 
 
 
Parliament Headlines | Politics Headlines | Regional Headlines

Gordon Campbell: On Labour’s Fudging On Child Poverty, And America’s Diplomatic Dance With Iran

If you want a good insight into what the limits of tiny, barely discernible steps to reduce poverty actually look like, delve into the latest Statistics Department figures on poverty in New Zealand Most of the nine measures utilised reveal little or no progress in combatting poverty over the 21 months to March 2020... More>>


 

Government: Reserve Bank To Take Account Of Housing In Decision Making

The Reserve Bank is now required to consider the impact on housing when making monetary and financial policy decisions, Grant Robertson announced today. Changes have been made to the Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee’s remit requiring it to take into ... More>>

ALSO:


RNZ: Alert Levels Remain

There are no new community cases of Covid-19 today, the Ministry of Health has confirmed.
Covid-19 Response Minister Chris Hipkins says at least half of the Papatoetoe High School community have been tested and the results that have come through so far have all been negative... More>>

ALSO:

Stats NZ: Latest Release Of Child Poverty Statistics

All measures of child poverty were trending downwards, prior to the COVID-19 lockdown, across the two years since year ended June 2018, Stats NZ said today. The COVID-19 lockdown in late March 2020 affected Stats NZ’s ability to collect data from households ... More>>

ALSO:


NZ Initiative: New Report Highlights How Our Housing Crisis Could Worsen If We Don’t Act Now

If New Zealand politicians thought the housing crisis in 2020 was bad, the worst is yet to come, warns a new report by The New Zealand Initiative. In The Need to Build: The demographic drivers of housing demand , Research Assistant Leonard Hong ... More>>

Parliament: Kiwi MPs Among The “Most Educated In The World”

New analysis of MP qualifications reveals New Zealand’s Parliament is one of the most educated and highest qualified in the world, and significantly more educated than Australia’s. The research, by Mark Blackham of BlacklandPR and Geoffrey Miller ... More>>

The Dig: An Illogical Ideological Struggle

Dig beneath all the trade wars and the arguments to the effect that the USA should not permit China to achieve economic and technological superiority, or even parity, and you find the real reason behind the conflict... More>>

Travel: Government Eases Visa Restrictions For Visitors In New Zealand

Visitor visa holders will be able to stay in New Zealand a little longer as the Government eases restrictions for those still here, the Minister of Immigration has announced. More>>

 
 
 
 
 
 

LATEST HEADLINES

  • PARLIAMENT
  • POLITICS
  • REGIONAL
 
 

InfoPages News Channels