NZ Govt to forecast 2014/15 surplus but fail to deliver: iPredict

The New Zealand Government is set to announce a 2014/15 surplus in its Budget tomorrow but will fail to deliver, according to the 6900 registered traders on New Zealand’s online prediction market, iPredict.

As at 5.30 pm tonight, traders were predicting tomorrow’s Budget will forecast a 2014/15 surplus of 0.75% of GDP but they believe the government accounts that year will turn out to be in deficit to the tune of 0.64% of GDP.

Nevertheless, iPredict traders continue to favour National to win the general election in 2014/15 (53% probability), with an 86% probability current Prime Minister John Key will lead his party into that election. Should National win, there is an 85% probability Mr Key will reappoint current Finance Minister Bill English to that role

Portfolios likely to have a higher total appropriation in tomorrow’s Budget than in Budget 2011 are Education, Tertiary Education, Health, Social Development and the Ombudsmen,

Portfolios likely to be cut are Defence, Transport, Conservation, Corrections, Courts, Justice, Ministerial Services, National Archives, National Library and the Police.

Trading volumes for many Budget 2012 stocks have been surprisingly low suggesting the opening prices set by the market maker were broadly accurate or that insiders have declined to trade.

Profit opportunities therefore remain for those who believe that have an insight into likely government decisions.

Trading in the stocks will continue until tomorrow afternoon, with the market maker to be turned off at approximately 1.00 pm.

ENDS

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