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Latest Roy Morgan findings: Federal L-NP Leads All States

1. FEDERAL L-NP LEADS IN ALL STATES IN AUGUST

2. True unemployment rate 'hidden by successive New Zealand Governments' (Winston Peters, Leader of NZ First)

3. NEW ZEALAND REAL UNEMPLOYMENT AT 9.1% WITH A FURTHER 9.6% OF WORKFORCE UNDER-EMPLOYED


FEDERAL L-NP LEADS IN ALL STATES IN AUGUST
NSW: L-NP (54.5%) CF. ALP (45.5%); VIC: L-NP (52%) CF. ALP (48%); QLD: LNP (60.5%) CF. ALP (39.5%);
WA: L-NP (61.5%) CF. ALP (38.5%); SA: L-NP (57%) CF. ALP (43%); TAS: L-NP (52%) CF. ALP (48%)

Gary Morgan says:

“Today’s special August monthly Morgan Poll shows the L-NP leading on a two-party preferred basis in all Australian States and with both males (L-NP: 59% cf. ALP: 41%) and females (L-NP: 52% cf. ALP: 48%). The L-NP also leads with electors aged over 25, however the ALP holds a slight advantage with 18-24yr olds (ALP: 51.5% cf. L-NP: 48.5%) — this is despite the latest Roy Morgan unemployment estimate for July showing 20.8% of Australians aged 18-24yrs old unemployed and a further 14.1% under-employed (a total of 34.9% looking for work or looking for more work).

“Overall, the L-NP (55.5%, down 1.5% since June 2012) continues to hold a strong two-party preferred lead over the ALP 44.5% (up 1.5%), although the lead has lessened slightly in recent months.

“Looking closely at the States shows the L-NP holding huge leads in Queensland (LNP: 60.5% cf. ALP: 39.5%), Western Australia (L-NP: 61.5% cf. ALP: 38.5%) and South Australia (L-NP: 57% cf. ALP: 43%), and a strong lead in New South Wales (L-NP: 54.5% cf. ALP: 45.5%), but narrower leads in both Victoria (L-NP: 52% cf. ALP: 48%) and Tasmania (L-NP: 52% cf. ALP: 48%).”

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BY STATE:

New South Wales:

2PP: L-NP (54.5%, down 2.5% since a Morgan Poll in June 2012) cf. ALP (45.5%, up 2.5%).
Primary Vote: L-NP (43.5%, unchanged), ALP (34.5%, up 2.5%), Greens (11%, down 0.5%), Independents/ Others (11%, down 2%).

Victoria:

2PP: L-NP (52%, up 3% since a Morgan Poll in June 2012) cf. ALP (48%, down 3%).
Primary Vote: L-NP (41%, up 2.5%), ALP (36%, down 0.5%), Greens (12%, down 2%), Independents/ Others (11%, unchanged).

Queensland:

2PP: L-NP (60.5%, down 3% since a Morgan Poll in June 2012) cf. ALP (39.5%, up 3%).
Primary Vote: L-NP (45%, down 5.5%), ALP (28.5%, up 1%), Greens (12%, up 4%), Independents/ Others (14.5%, up 0.5%).

Western Australia:

2PP: L-NP (61.5%, down 3.5% since a Morgan Poll in June 2012) cf. ALP (38.5%, up 3.5%).
Primary Vote: L-NP (52%, down 3%), ALP (31%, up 4.5%), Greens (6.5%, down 3%), Independents/ Others (10.5%, up 1.5%).

South Australia:

2PP: L-NP (57%, up 0.5% since a Morgan Poll in June 2012) cf. ALP (43%, down 0.5%).
Primary Vote: L-NP (42.5%, down 1%), ALP (30.5%, down 2%), Greens (13.5%, up 3%), Independents/ Others (13.5%, unchanged).

Tasmania:

2PP: L-NP (52%, down 0.5% since a Morgan Poll in June 2012) cf. ALP (48%, up 0.5%).
Primary Vote: L-NP (42%, up 2.5%), ALP (34.5%, up 5%), Greens (9%, down 7%), Independents/ Others (14.5%, down 0.5%).


BY GENDER:

Male:

2PP: L-NP (59%, unchanged since a Morgan Poll in June, 2012) cf. ALP (41%, unchanged).
Primary Vote: L-NP (48%, up 1.5%), ALP (31%, unchanged), Greens (10%, unchanged), Independents/ Others (11%, down 1.5%).

Female:

2PP: L-NP (52%, down 3% since a Morgan Poll in June, 2012) cf. ALP (48%, up 3%).
Primary Vote: L-NP (40%, down 2.5%), ALP (35%, up 2.5%), Greens (12.5%, down 0.5%), Independents/ Others (12.5%, up 0.5%).


BY AGE:

18-24:

2PP: L-NP (48.5%, down 5% since a Morgan Poll in June, 2012) cf. ALP (51.5%, up 5%).
Primary Vote: L-NP (29.5%, down 6%), ALP (34%, up 3.5%), Greens (23.5%, up 6%), Independents/ Others (13%, down 3.5%).

25-34:

2PP: L-NP (56%, up 0.5% since a Morgan Poll in June, 2012) cf. ALP (44%, down 0.5%).
Primary Vote: L-NP (40.5%, down 0.5%), ALP (28%, down 2.5%), Greens (18.5%, up 1%), Independents/ Others (13%, up 2%).

35-49:

2PP: L-NP (54%, down 3% since a Morgan Poll in June, 2012) cf. ALP (46%, up 3%).
Primary Vote: L-NP (42.5%, down 1%), ALP (33.5%, up 3%), Greens (9.5%, down 3%), Independents/ Others (14.5%, up 1%).

50-64:

2PP: L-NP (56%, up 0.5% since a Morgan Poll in June, 2012) cf. ALP (44%, down 0.5%).
Primary Vote: L-NP (45%, unchanged), ALP (34.5%, up 0.5%), Greens (9%, unchanged), Independents/ Others (11.5%, down 0.5%).

65+:

2PP: L-NP (59.5%, down 1.5% since a Morgan Poll in June, 2012) cf. ALP (40.5%, up 1.5%).
Primary Vote: L-NP (54%, up 1.5%), ALP (34%, up 1.5%), Greens (4%, down 1.5%), Independents/ Others (8%, down 1.5%).

Full Tables & Details: http://www.roymorgan.com/news/polls/2012/4813

True unemployment rate 'hidden by successive New Zealand Governments'
Published by Voxy Tuesday, 28 August, 2012

New Zealand First is calling on the Government to scrap the Household Labour Force Survey (HLFS) as the official measure of employment.

Data released this week by Roy Morgan suggests a total of 228,000 New Zealanders, 9.1 per cent of the workforce, were unemployed in the June quarter.

The official figure quoted by the Department of Labour is 6.8 per cent, a discrepancy of 66,000.

Rt Hon Winston Peters says successive governments have run with flawed HLFS findings so they can hide just how bad things are in the economy.

"The Roy Morgan poll paints a much more serious unemployment situation than the Government’s propaganda would have us believe.

"Not only does the poll suggest that unemployment is at 9.1 per cent, but it also suggests that a further 9.6 per cent of the workforce are under-employed.

"That is a sad indictment on National’s economic direction which is bringing the country to its knees," says Mr Peters.


Full Article: http://www.voxy.co.nz/politics/true-unemployment-rate-hidden-successive-govts/5/132982


Gary Morgan says:

“The political courage shown by New Zealand First Leader Winston Peters in calling for an overhaul of how employment estimates are calculated in New Zealand is a strong contrast to the lack of commitment shown by both sides of politics in Australia – both Labor & Liberal. Both of Australia’s major parties have consistently failed to look closely at the way unemployment is calculated in Australia, and the problems with the definitions used by the ABS that mean it consistently under-reports Australia’s true level of unemployment and under-employment.

“The restrictions placed on the ABS definition of unemployment mean many thousands of Australians ready to start work are not considered ‘unemployed’. The Roy Morgan July unemployment estimate shows 9.7% of Australians are unemployed (compared to an ABS figure of 5.2%) while a further 7.8% of Australians are under-employed and 20.8% of Australians aged 18-24yrs old are unemployed and a further 14.1% are under-employed (a total of 34.9% looking for work or looking for more work).

“Throughout the world we are now hearing about ‘real unemployment’; the Government unemployment rate is substantially lower than ‘real unemployment’.

“Regardless of any embarrassment the real unemployment figures may cause a Government (and previous Governments), ‘pretending’ unemployment is low has potentially catastrophic implications for a country causing wrong decisions about interest rates (set by central banks), IR legislation, and Government budgetary forecasts.

“If Australia’s leaders, including Prime Minister Julia Gillard and Opposition Leader Tony Abbott had real courage, they would be prepared to ‘face the facts’ regarding Australia’s unemployment and develop real policies to help the more than 2 million Australians who are either looking for work or looking for more work. New Zealand First Leader Winston Peters has shown that some political leaders do possess this courage and it would be good news for all Australians if Australia’s political leaders could follow the example set by Peters.”

Response by Gary Morgan: http://www.roymorgan.com/news/polls/2012/4814


New Zealand Real Unemployment at 9.1% with a Further 9.6% of Workforce under-Employed

In the June Quarter 2012 according to Roy Morgan:

New Zealand unemployment was 9.1% of the 2,529,000 in the New Zealand workforce — an estimated 228,000 were unemployed and looking for work.
A further 9.6% of the workforce* were under-employed — that is working part-time but looking for more work — 239,000 New Zealanders.
In total 18.6% of the workforce, or 467,000 New Zealanders were either unemployed or under-employed.
The latest Roy Morgan unemployment estimate of 9.1% is now 2.3% above the 6.8% currently quoted by the New Zealand Department of Labour for the April — June Quarter 2012.
Compared to the March 2012 Quarter unemployment is down 2.0% (from 11.1% in March 2012). Although the number of people employed is up marginally (up 4,000), the real decrease in unemployment is driven by a reduction of 58,000 in the number of people looking for work.
Compared to a year ago (the June 2011 Quarter) there are an additional 93,000 New Zealanders now employed, and unemployment is down from 9.7% in June 2011 to 9.1%.

Roy Morgan New Zealand Unemployed and ‘Under-employed’* Estimate

Unemployed or
‘Under-employed’*
UnemployedUnemployed looking for‘Under-employed’*
Full-timePart-time
2008‘000%‘000%‘000‘000‘000%
Jan—Mar 200833213.81727.1581141606.7
Apr-June 200831613.11325.557751847.6
July-Sep 200835615.01646.971931928.1
Oct-Dec 200843618.02118.71021092259.3
2009
Jan—Mar 200943817.62148.6801342249.0
Apr-June 200944318.12439.91191242008.2
July-Sep 200949520.526611.01261402299.5
Oct-Dec 200949620.227011.01511192269.2
2010
Jan—Mar 201043517.425210.11291231837.3
Apr-June 201047219.32379.71301072359.6
July-Sep 201043617.82239.11161072138.7
Oct-Dec 201048620.026110.81191432259.3
2011
Jan—Mar 201151020.528811.61491392228.9
Apr-June 201141817.12379.71161211817.4
July-Sep 201145718.42349.4141932239.0
Oct-Dec 201149319.02459.41181272489.9
2012
Jan—Mar 201251520.328611.11251612299.2
Apr-June 201246718.72289.11051232399.6

Gary Morgan says:

“Today’s inaugural release of Roy Morgan New Zealand’s real employment estimate shows that despite the economic worries from overseas, and in particular Europe, employment in New Zealand has grown strongly over the past 12 months.

“The Roy Morgan New Zealand employment estimates show overall employment in New Zealand has grown in each of the last 6 quarters — since the December Quarter 2010. Over the past 12 months, overall employment in New Zealand has increased 93,000 to 2,301,000 (June Quarter 2012). The NZ Department of Labour figures show more subdued employment growth during this period with overall employment up 13,000 to 2,227,000 over the past 12 months.

“However, despite the strong jobs growth in the New Zealand economy, the Roy Morgan New Zealand unemployment estimate shows real unemployment in New Zealand at 9.1% (228,000) in the June Quarter 2012 — significantly higher than the 6.8% estimate provided by the New Zealand Department of Labour for the same time period.

“Additionally, a further 239,000 New Zealanders in part-time employment are looking for more work (representing 9.6% of the New Zealand workforce). Roy Morgan New Zealand figures show a total of 467,000 New Zealanders (18.7% of the New Zealand workforce) are either unemployed or under-employed. In contrast, the New Zealand Department of Labour estimates under-employment at only 4.6% in the June Quarter 2012 for a total of 272,000 New Zealanders (11.4%) either unemployed or under-employed.”

Full Tables & Details: http://www.roymorgan.com/news/polls/2012/4804


ENDS

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