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Job losses, spy claims - 1% vote support change overnight

25 September 2012

Media release

Job losses, illegal spying claims drive 1% vote support change overnight

National and Labour have both lost support among the 18+ population as a whole in the latest Horizon Research poll.

News of job losses and illegal intelligence gathering do not appear to have driven any statistically significant changes in voting overnight, with a 1% move away from National and 1% move to Labour.

About 714 of the 2,425 responses to the poll were made between 4.30pm September 24 and 12.20pm September 25, following the announcement of job losses by Solid energy, Kiwi Rail and Nuplex and reports of unlawful intelligence gathering by the Government Communications security Bureau (GCSB).

The September 21 to 25 survey is weighted by age, gender, personal income, ethnicity, educational qualifications, employment status and party vote 2011 to provide a representative sample of the adult population aged 18+ at the last census. At a 95% confidence level of the maximum margin of error is +/- 2%. The poll is continuing at www.horizonpoll.co.nz.

National has the support of 24.8% of people aged 18+, down from 32.31% at the 2011 general election.
Labour’s has 19.1%, compared with 18.77% at the last election. It has been losing support since May.

The NZ First vote has risen to 7.8%, up nearly 2% since the previous HorizonPoll in July 2012. It had 4.5% 18+ support at the 2011 general election. Green support is at 11.4%, down from 13% in July but up from 7.55% at the 2011 election.

National has the support of 68.3% of those who voted for it in 2011. Its voters have not so much moved to other parties but to being not sure: 18% now say they don’t know how they will vote.

The results indicate a Labour-Green coalition would have 31.8% support, just over the 32.31% National had in 2011 which saw it secure 49% of the votes cast. Some 22.2% of voters are still undecided.

NZ First support from the cross benches could be critical in deciding which parties might form the next Government.

Support as a percentage of total population 18+

2011 electionApril 24- May 6, 2012May 18 – June 6, 2012July 6-18, 2012September 21-25, 2012
NZ First4.

Respondents’ party vote preferences compared with votes they cast at the 2011 general election:

HorizonPoll September 2012
Survey Results Table (Weighted)

If a New Zealand general election were held tomorrow, which party would you vote for with your party vote?

Multichoice - Single Answer Only

A. ACT New Zealand
B. Conservative Party
C. Green Party
D. Labour Party
E. Mana Party
F. Maori Party
G. National Party
H. New Zealand First Party
I. United Future
J. Other party
K. Choose not to vote
L. Not eligible to vote
M. Don't know

ALL24250.5% 3.1% 11.4% 19.1% 1.4% 0.7% 24.8% 7.8% 0.2% 0.5% 7.8% 0.4% 22.2% 100%
ACT New Zealand1%38.1% 19.6% 1.1% 16.1% 12.5% 2.8% 5.1% 4.8% 100%
Chose not to vote18%0.3% 2.9% 4.5% 11.6% 8.9% 9.8% 39.3% 22.7% 100%
National Party33%0.5% 3% 2.1% 4.6% 68.3% 2.8% 0.2% 0.2% 0.4% 18% 100%
New Zealand First Party4%0.9% 1.7% 2.1% 7.6% 3.3% 1.5% 70.9% 0.7% 1.7% 9.7% 100%
Conservative2%57.4% 5.2% 2% 2.8% 5.4% 1.9% 25.3% 100%
Green Party7%0.3% 75.2% 7.2% 1.4% 1.5% 0.5% 0.8% 0.1% 13.1% 100%
Labour Party19%0.2% 8.1% 70.1% 2.2% 1.3% 0.5% 3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 14% 100%
United Future0%7.1% 11.7% 1.9% 51.1% 7.1% 21% 100%
Don't know or can't remember8%4.2% 0.6% 0.9% 5.5% 2.5% 4.2% 82.1% 100%
Mana Party1%5% 4.2% 75.6% 4.2% 1.2% 9.7% 100%
Maori Party1%9% 13.2% 2.4% 32% 0.7% 1.8% 40.8% 100%
Was not eligible to vote4%47.7% 16.2% 15.9% 9.9% 10.2% 100%
Other party0%21.6% 7.4% 44.1% 11.6% 15.2% 100%

The results of Horizon April-May polling are here

The HorizonPoll adult panel is recruited principally by e-mailed invitation to match the profile of the adult population at the 2006 census.

Weighting by six factors at one time, including party vote 2011, further ensures results represent the adult population nationwide.


© Scoop Media

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