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National Party Down 3.5% To 40.5%
National Party Down 3.5% To 40.5%; Labour Gains 1% To 35.5% Labour With Minor Party Support Would Win An Election If Held Now
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Finding No. 4886 - This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone with a NZ wide cross-section of 879 electors from April 1-14, 2013. Of all electors surveyed 5.5% (up 1%) didn’t name a party.: April 18, 2013
Today’s New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows a substantial fall in support for Prime Minister John Key’s National Party to 40.5% (down 3.5% since March 11-24, 2013). Support for Key’s Coalition partners shows the Maori Party 2% (down 0.5%), ACT NZ 0.5% (unchanged) and United Future 0.5% (down 0.5%).
Support for Labour is 35.5% (up 1%); Greens are 13.5% (up 0.5%), New Zealand First 5% (up 2%), Mana Party 0.5% (unchanged), Conservative Party of NZ 1.5% (up 0.5%) and Others 0.5% (up 0.5%).
If a National Election were held today this New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows that the Labour Party with minor party support would win an Election if held now.
The latest NZ Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is down 3.5pts to 116 with 51.5% (down 2%) of New Zealanders saying New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to 35.5% (up 1.5%) that say NZ is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.
Gary Morgan says:
“Today’s New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows a definite tightening between National (40.5%, down 3.5%) and Labour (35.5%, up 1%). This is the smallest gap between the two major parties since October 2008— prior to John Key’s election as Prime Minister.
“Since John Key became leader of National in November 2006, the National vote has never dipped below 40.5%, and has not been lower since October 2006 (40%) when Don Brash was still the leader of National.
“Today’s result is a clear boost to Opposition Leader David Shearer and comes as National faces a number of challenges that appear to have dented its support — the axing of 140 jobs by the Department of Conservation, the ongoing Novopay Payroll Issues, the bungled handling of the Kim Dotcom ‘affair’ and serious breaches of privacy by both the Ministry of Education and the Earthquake Commission.”
Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?”
This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone with a NZ wide cross-section of 879 electors from April 1-14, 2013. Of all electors surveyed 5.5% (up 1%) didn’t name a party.
VOTING INTENTION SUMMARY
The following table compares the latest NZ Morgan Polls on Voting Intention with the result from the November 26, 2011 General Election:
Click for big version.
Click for big version.
VOTING INTENTION SUMMARY - National Party-led Government v Parliamentary Opposition Parties
The following table compares the latest NZ Morgan Polls on Voting Intention with the result from the November 26, 2011 General Election:
Click for big version.
Click for big version.
Click for big version.
Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate | |||
| 40%-60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 500 | ±4.5 | ±3.9 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 |
| 1,000 | ±3.2 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.4 |
ENDS
Roy Morgan Research
New Zealand's leading social and market research company
A full service research organisation specialising in omnibus and syndicated data, Roy Morgan Research has over 70 years' experience in collecting objective, independent information on consumers. Roy Morgan Research was set up in New Zealand in the 1990s and has been collecting information across a wide range of industries in New Zealand ever since. Roy Morgan currently has over 10 years of trended data on a geographically and demographically representative sample of over 12,000 New Zealanders aged 14+.
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