Scoop Politics

National Party rebounds 6% to 46.5%; Labour down 4% to 31.5%

Friday, 3 May 2013, 4:11 pm
Press Release: Roy Morgan Research

[Full Article & Results at www.roymorgan.com]

National Party rebounds 6% to 46.5%; Labour down 4% to 31.5%
As New Zealand passes laws to legalise same-sex marriage

Finding No. 4890 - This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone with a NZ wide cross-section of 877 electors from April 15-28, 2013. Of all electors surveyed 5% (down 0.5%) didn’t name a party.: May 02, 2013

Today’s [2/5/13] New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows a substantial gain in support for Prime Minister John Key’s National Party to 46.5% (up 6% since April 1-14, 2013). Support for Key’s Coalition partners remains low with the Maori Party 1.5% (down 0.5%), ACT NZ 0.5% (unchanged) and United Future 0.5% (unchanged).

Support for Labour is 31.5% (down 4%); Greens are 11% (down 2.5%), New Zealand First 4.5% (down 0.5%), Mana Party 1% (up 0.5%), Conservative Party of NZ 2% (up 0.5%) and Others 1% (up 0.5%).

Despite the strong rise in support for National, if a National Election were held now this New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows that it would be too close to call.

However, in further good news for the Government the latest NZ Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is up 4.5pts to 120.5 with 54.5% (up 3%) of New Zealanders saying New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to 34% (down 1.5%) that say NZ is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.

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Gary Morgan says:

“Today’s New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows National (46.5%, up 6%) increasing its lead over the main Opposition Labour Party (31.5%, down 4%) after New Zealand became the thirteenth country in the world, and the first in the Asia-Pacific, to legalise same-sex marriage. Today’s result returns National to a lead similar to the lead it held two months ago in late February — National (47.5%) cf. Labour (30.5%).

“Although National has substantially increased their vote, the low support for governing Coalition partners the Maori Party, ACT NZ and United Future mean a combined Labour/ Greens/ New Zealand First coalition remains a good chance of forming Government after the next New Zealand Election — due late next year.”

Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?”

This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone with a NZ wide cross-section of 877 electors from April 15-28, 2013. Of all electors surveyed 5% (down 0.5%) didn’t name a party.

VOTING INTENTION SUMMARY

The following table compares the latest NZ Morgan Polls on Voting Intention with the result from the November 26, 2011 General Election:

PRIMARY VOTE	National	Labour	Green Party	NZ First	Maori Party*	Mana Party	ACT NZ	United Future	Conservative Party	Other
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
General Election, July 27, 2002	20.9	41.3	7	10.4	n/a	n/a	7.1	6.7	n/a	6.6
General Election, September 17, 2005	39.1	41.1	5.3	5.72	2.12	n/a	1.51	2.67	n/a	2.48
General Election, November 8, 2008	44.93	33.99	6.72	4.07	2.39	n/a	3.65	0.87	n/a	3.38
General Election, November 26, 2011	47.31	27.48	11.06	6.59	1.43	1.08	1.07	0.60	2.65	0.73
MORGAN POLL
[…] January 2-13, 2013	46	31.5	12	5	2	0.5	0.5	0.5	1.5	0.5
January 14-27, 2013	46	31.5	13.5	5.5	1.5	0.5	0.5	^	0.5	0.5
January 28 - February 10, 2013	44	34.5	13.5	4	0.5	0.5	0.5	^	2	0.5
February 11-24, 2013	47.5	30.5	12.5	3	2.5	0.5	0.5	0.5	2	0.5
February 25 - March 10, 2013	43.5	32.5	13.5	5	2	^	0.5	0.5	2	0.5
March 11-24, 2013	44	34.5	13	3	2.5	0.5	0.5	1	1	^
April 1-14, 2013	40.5	35.5	13.5	5	2	0.5	0.5	0.5	1.5	0.5
April 15-28, 2013	46.5	31.5	11	4.5	1.5	1	0.5	0.5	2	1

*The Maori Party was launched in July 2004; ^ Result less than 0.5%.

[Full Article & Results at www.roymorgan.com]

Roy Morgan Research

New Zealand's leading social and market research company

A full service research organisation specialising in omnibus and syndicated data, Roy Morgan Research has over 70 years' experience in collecting objective, independent information on consumers. Roy Morgan Research was set up in New Zealand in the 1990s and has been collecting information across a wide range of industries in New Zealand ever since. Roy Morgan currently has over 10 years of trended data on a geographically and demographically representative sample of over 12,000 New Zealanders aged 14+.

Contact Roy Morgan Research

Website - www.roymorgan.com

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