Scoop has an Ethical Paywall
Work smarter with a Pro licence Learn More

Gordon Campbell | Parliament TV | Parliament Today | News Video | Crime | Employers | Housing | Immigration | Legal | Local Govt. | Maori | Welfare | Unions | Youth | Search

 

Majority think National will win election, prefer Labour

7 April 2014
Media release
Horizon Research

Majority think National will lead after election but would prefer Labour

66.5% of New Zealand voters think National will lead a coalition government if one is needed after the September 20 general election.

However, 51.5% would prefer Labour to lead a coalition if there is one.

An independent nationwide survey by Horizon Research of 2,665 people aged 18+ between March 20 and April 4, 2014, finds those who voted National at the 2011 general election are highly confident: 92.1% of them think it will lead a coalition.

66.5% of Labour voters and 56.9% of NZ First voters think Labour will lead. However, 56.2% of Mana voters think National will lead.

When asked which main party they would prefer to lead a coalition if there is one, the outcome is finely balanced with Labour favoured by 51.5% and National 48.5%.

The survey’s margin of error is +/- 1.9%.

The survey starkly illustrates the difference between perceptions over which party might win and what electors would prefer, Horizon’s Manager, Grant McInman says.

The results also reflect other polling which shows the election result on a knife edge, with New Zealand First capturing more than 5% support and likely to decide which main party may form a government.


If there is a coalition government after the next general election, which main party do you think will lead it?

A.Labour
Advertisement - scroll to continue reading

Are you getting our free newsletter?

Subscribe to Scoop’s 'The Catch Up' our free weekly newsletter sent to your inbox every Monday with stories from across our network.

33.5%
B.National

66.5%

If there is a coalition government after the next general election, which main party would you prefer to lead it?

A.Labour

51.5%
B.National

48.5%

Horizon says 72.2% of respondents say they are 100% likely to vote, at this stage indicating turnout similar to that at the 2011 general election. Some 73% of the 18+ population voted at the 2011 general election. 93.5% of survey respondents said they were registered to vote.

Respondents are members of the national HorizonPoll panel, recruited to represent the population 18+ at the last census. The survey is weighted by age, ethnicity, education, personal income, gender and the party respondents voted for at the 2011 election to ensure a representative sample. At a 95% confidence level the maximum margin of error is +/- 1.9%.

© Scoop Media

Advertisement - scroll to continue reading
 
 
 
Parliament Headlines | Politics Headlines | Regional Headlines


Gordon Campbell: On The Flaws In Anti-gang Laws


Google “Christopher Luxon“ and “mojo” and you get nearly 60,000 matching responses. Over the past 18 months – here and here and again, here – Luxon has claimed that New Zealanders have either lost their mojo and/or are in the process of re-finding it. With mojo in hand, New Zealanders will once more become a nation of over-achievers, blessed with the feisty Kiwi can-do spirit of yore.

But here’s the thing. According to Luxon, we’re naturally bold, inventive and self-reliant. Yet according to him, we’re also “wet, whiny and inward-looking”...
More


 
 

Government: GPS 2024: Over $20 Billion To Get Transport Back On Track
Transport Minister Simeon Brown has released the draft Government Policy Statement (GPS) on Land Transport, outlining the Coalition Government’s plan to build and maintain a transport system that enables people to get to where they need to go quickly and safely... More

ALSO:


ACT: New Zealand Dodges Dopey Experiment In Prohibition

“Labour’s attempted crackdown on smokers would have delivered criminal groups a near-monopoly over the cigarette trade,” says ACT Health spokesman Todd Stephenson... More

Government: Humanitarian Support For Gaza & West Bank

Winston Peters has announced NZ is providing a further $5M to respond to the extreme humanitarian need in Gaza and the West Bank. “The impact of the Israel-Hamas conflict on civilians is absolutely appalling," he said... More


Government: New High Court Judge Appointed

Judith Collins has announced the appointment of Wellington Barrister Jason Scott McHerron as a High Court Judge. Justice McHerron graduated from the University of Otago with a BA in English Literature in 1994 and an LLB in 1996... More

 
 
 
 
 
 

LATEST HEADLINES

  • PARLIAMENT
  • POLITICS
  • REGIONAL
 
 

InfoPages News Channels


 
 
 
 

Join Our Free Newsletter

Subscribe to Scoop’s 'The Catch Up' our free weekly newsletter sent to your inbox every Monday with stories from across our network.