Gordon Campbell | Parliament TV | Parliament Today | News Video | Crime | Employers | Housing | Immigration | Legal | Local Govt. | Maori | Welfare | Unions | Youth | Search

 

iPredict Daily Election Update 1: Nats to lead govt with NZ1

IPREDICT LTD

2014 NEW ZEALAND ELECTION

DAILY UPDATE #1

Monday 8 September 2014

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

www.ipredict.co.nz

www.electionresults.co.nz

This is the first daily update of forecasts from the iPredict market for the 2014 New Zealand General Election.

John Key’s National Party is forecast to lead the next government with the support of the New Zealand First Party.

Detailed Information:

• Trading on iPredict to be suspended at 11.59 pm Friday 19 September and re-open at 7.00 pm on Saturday 20 September

• Expected turnout 77.4%

• National expected to lead next government with 79.1% probability

• Forecast party vote shares:

o National: 44.5%

o Labour: 27.9%

o Green: 12.8%

o NZ First: 5.1%

o Conservatives: 3.9%

o Internet-Mana: 2.9%

o ACT: 1.3%

o Maori Party: 0.7%

o UnitedFuture: 0.5%

o ALCP: 0.2%

o Civilian Party: 0.2%

• Four small parties expected to win at least one electorate seat: UnitedFuture (83.2% probability), ACT (82.2%), Maori Party (75.2%) and Mana (73.1%)

• Marginal seats:

o Palmerston North (51% probability of being won by National’s Jono Naylor)

o Port Hills (55% for National’s Nuk Korako)

o Waimakariri (65% for National’s Matthew’s Doocey)

o Christchurch Central (71% for Labour’s Tony Milne)

o Hutt South (71% for Labour’s Trevor Mallard)

o Napier (71% for Labour’s Stuart Nash)

o Te Tai Tokerau (71% for Mana’s Hone Harawira)

o Waiariki (71% for Maori Party’s Te Ururoa Flavell)

o Te Tai Hauauru (74% for Labour’s Adrian Ruawhe)

o Te Atatu (75% for Labour’s Phil Twyford)

o Tamaki Makaurau (75% for Labour’s Peeni Henare)

o Maungakiekie (77% for National’s Peseta Sam Lotu-Iiga)

o Hamilton East (79% for National’s David Bennett)

o Epsom (80% for Act’s David Seymour)

o Ohariu (80% for UnitedFuture’s Peter Dunne)

• Parliament expected to be:

o National: 55 seats

o Labour: 35 seats

o Green: 16 seats

o NZ First: 6 seats

o Internet-Mana: 4 seats

o ACT: 2 seats

o Maori Party: 1 seat

o UnitedFuture: 1 seat

• NZ First to hold balance of power and back National (61% probability) or sit on cross benches (6.1%)

• Cunliffe expected to depart as Labour leader by end of year (56% probability) and be replaced by Robertson (58.3%)

• Key expected to depart as National leader by end of 2015 (60% probability) and be replaced by Joyce (40.1%)

• No rise in Official Cash Rate expected on 11 September (97.3% probability)

• Balance of payments deficit (June quarter) expected to be 2.5% of GDP when announced on 17 September

• GDP growth (June quarter) expected to be 0.8% when announced on 18 September

• Unemployment expected to be 5.5% in September quarter

• Fiscal surplus in 2014/15 expected to be 0.17% of GDP

• Annual inflation to end of September quarter expected to be 1.4%

Notes: iPredict Ltd is owned by Victoria University of Wellington. Details on the company and its stocks can be found at www.ipredict.co.nz. The daily political update is prepared by Exceltium Ltd on a pro bono basis and is based on a snapshot taken at a random time each day. This week’s was taken at 2.56 pm today.

ENDS


© Scoop Media

 
 
 
Parliament Headlines | Politics Headlines | Regional Headlines

Gordon Campbell: On Last Night’s Leaders Debate

Do political debates change voter intentions, and cause voters to switch sides? According to a 2019 Harvard Business School study conducted across 61 elections in nine countries involving 172,000 respondents, the answer would seem to be a resounding “No.” Political debates have little effect on voter behaviour, let alone on election outcomes. Crucially, the limited effect they do have does not involve a change in voters’ policy preferences... More>>

 

Government: More Border Exceptions For Critical Roles

The Government has established class exceptions for border entry for a limited number of veterinarians, deep sea fishing crew, as well as agricultural and horticultural machinery operators. “Tight border restrictions remain the backbone of the Government’s ... More>>

ALSO:

PM: Auckland At Bolstered Level 2, Rest Of Country Provisionally At Level 1

Pandemic alert levels for the whole country have been reviewed by Cabinet and Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern is announcing whether restrictions will be eased. More>>

ALSO:

Labour: Supporting Workers And Valuing Their Contribution

Making sure working New Zealanders are safe, healthy and that their contribution to the economy is valued is at the heart of Labour’s Workplace Relations Policy.
“This is Labour demonstrating its commitment to helping working New Zealanders by increasing sick leave, raising wages, protecting them while they are at work, growing jobs and investing in the economy,”... More>>

ALSO:

PREFU: Economy Doing Better Than Forecast

The Pre-election Economic and Fiscal Update released today shows that the near-term economic recovery has been stronger than the Treasury and many economists predicted at the May Budget, as the economy bounced back strongly out of lockdown... More>>

ALSO:


Electoral Commission: Candidate And Party Lists Released

17 registered political parties and 677 candidates will be contesting the 2020 General Election Nominations have now closed and the Electoral Commission has released the electorate and party list candidates for 2020 online at vote.nz . Advance voting ... More>>

National: Plan To Restore NZ’s Prosperity

National’s Economic and Fiscal Plan carefully balances the need to invest in infrastructure and core public services while also reducing tax pressure on Kiwi families and businesses. National Leader Judith Collins and Finance spokesperson Paul Goldsmith unveiled National’s ... More>>

ALSO:

NZ First: Party List

New Zealand First has a proven twenty-seven-year history of bringing balance and common sense to our government. Amid the continued setbacks of COVID-19 restrictions, New Zealand First has once again sustained its profile by selecting a strong team ... More>>

Election: Arriving Travellers In Isolation To Be Able To Vote By Telephone

Up to 5,000 people in managed isolation or quarantine will be able to vote by telephone in the general election and referendums after an amendment to electoral regulations last week. Chief Electoral Officer Alicia Wright says the Electoral Commission sought ... More>>

National: Investing In Our Children’s Future

A National Government will prioritise lifting achievement for all New Zealand children, no matter their background or ability, National Party Leader Judith Collins and National’s Education spokesperson Nicola Willis say. “Parents just want what’s best for ... More>>

 
 
 
 
 
 

LATEST HEADLINES

  • PARLIAMENT
  • POLITICS
  • REGIONAL
 


 

InfoPages News Channels