The Letter 8 Sep 2014
8 September, 2014
Beating the media blackout
TV has been so obsessed with “Dirty politics” that no party’s campaign launch has had any coverage. Jamie Whyte decided not to say a word about the controversy, and devoted a significant proportion of his Campaign opening to what the media usually do and analyse what the parties are actually saying and what it will cost. Did it work?
Some light through the blackout
TV3’s Paddy Gower is so obsessed with dirty politics that ACT got no coverage. TV One did report that Jamie Whyte was negative about all the other parties’ spending, including National. ACT was set up in response to the tax and spend policies of both Labour and National, and that is even truer today. The “dirty politics” saga is hurting Labour and the Greens, parties who need a campaign. “Dirty politics” is also helping NZ First and the Conservatives, whose raison d’etre is that the world is a dark conspiracy against the battlers. Neither party wants any analysis of what they are promising. According to the Taxpayers Union economist’s independent assessment, New Zealand First has promised more than Labour and the Greens combined. The Conservatives have made the biggest single promise: a tax free threshold to $20 thousand and then a single flat rate. This will lift middle earners to a tax rate of 34 cents, a cent higher than the tax rate millionaires pay today.
A good week for ACT
Hosking thought the TVNZ debate was about him but viewers got the message that only ACT is for lower taxes and less regulation. Kenneth Wang continues to hold large rallies of Chinese who do not like being made the election whipping boy. Jamie gave a powerful speech to a large campaign opening in Epsom. “ACT is still the only party that wants big individuals and small government.” Read More Here.
Where are the young?
Students have always been a vital part of every campaign. The usual very lively campus debates have been notable for their absence. Lecturers report this generation of students are the most socially conservative.
What about the polls?
Three polls all taken at the same time with different results beyond the margin of error means all but one of the polls logically must be wrong and statistically they are probably all wrong. Gene Ulm, the famous Republican Party pollster and ACT’s pollster, believes so few people have land lines that telephone polling is not accurate. He has switched to Internet polling, which has given ACT very different results and cause for optimism. NZ First and Conservative voters are the most likely to still have land lines and be over reported, and the Chinese are the hardest to poll.
What is worrying John Key and David Cunliffe
The non- vote. The bad news for Labour and the Greens and Internet/Mana is the non-vote may be even higher than last election. John Key is worried because if right/centre voters who think he is National-lite believe he is winning easily, they may stay at home as they did last election. He is keen that Jamie Whyte motivates the Right/Centre to vote.
receives many rumors. Among them are:
1. Those who have been hacked have de/hacked back and know the name of Rawshark.
2. There is credible evidence connecting Rawshark to Dotcom.
3. There is some evidence connecting Hager, Dotcom and Rawshark to one Matt McCarten in David Cunliffe’s office. Prior knowledge of Dirty Politics would explain the sudden and strange decision by Labour to campaign under the odd slogan “Vote Positive”.
4. There has been a huge bust up inside Internet/Mana. Hone has gone to Sydney!! Internet/Mana is not a happy ship. There are rows about spending. Who are working as volunteers – the Maori, and who are getting paid exorbitant money – the Pakeha. The Maori elders do not approve of the coalition with a German fraudster. Hone now thinks the coalition was a mistake. The expenditure of $3.4 million might result in 3% wasted left wing votes and Hone losing. Now there is a great result.
How Letter readers can determine the election
The election result will be decided by the third parties. There are two crucial figures: the 5% threshold or holding a seat. The Greens and New Zealand First will make the 5% threshold. The Conservatives will not. Ohariu is close but Dunne will hold on. Harawira is not safe. ACT street canvassers are reporting a significant shift to David Seymour. ACT is going to win Epsom. Once a party has a seat it takes a tiny change in votes to get a big reward. On the worst polling Jamie Whyte is just 5,000 votes from being elected. It just takes another 16,000 votes to elect Kenneth Wang. They are both going to win. We have 5,000 readers, so if every Letter reader rang one person to persuade them to vote for ACT that is Jamie Whyte elected. If you email 10 people to say you are voting ACT, that is 3 more ACT MPs. Facebook your friends to vote ACT and that is 6 ACT MPs. How hard is that? MMP is weird. It takes 63,000 Party votes on average to a National list MP. The electorates a party wins are deducted from a party’s list MPs. ACT will do very well is if right/Centre votes realise they have the numbers to block Winston Peters. So the priority is delivering the tactical vote message: To elect John Key PM, vote National in the electorate and give your Party vote to ACT.