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iPredict Election Daily Update #2

iPredict Election Daily Update #2

Tuesday 9 September 2014


The National Party’s position has strengthened over the last day and it could now form a government with its current support partners, ACT, UnitedFuture and the Maori Party, according to the combined wisdom of iPredict’s 8000 registered traders. Both NZ First and the Conservative Party are now expected to miss the 5% threshold. Labour is now expected to hold Palmerston North while its position has weakened somewhat in Tamaki Makauaru and Te Tai Hauauru, although it is still expected to win both seats. There has been a slight worsening in forecasts for GDP growth and the current account deficit for the June 2014 quarter.

Detailed Information:
• Trading on iPredict to be suspended at 11.59 pm Friday 19 September and re-opened at 7.00 pm on Saturday 20 September
• Expected turnout 76.9% (down from 77.4% yesterday)
• National expected to lead next government with 81.3% probability (up from 79.1% yesterday)
• Forecast party vote shares (major and minor parties, adjusted to sum to 100%):
o National: 44.7% (up from 44.5% yesterday)
o Labour: 27.8% (down from 27.9%)
o Green: 12.8% (steady)
o NZ First: 4.8% (down from 5.1%)
o Conservatives: 4.1% (up from 3.9%)
o Internet-Mana: 2.7% (down from 2.9%)
o ACT: 1.6% (up from 1.3%)
o Maori Party: 0.7% (steady)
o UnitedFuture: 0.5% (steady)
o ALCP: 0.2% (steady)
o Civilian Party: 0.2% (steady)
• Four small parties expected to win at least one electorate seat: UnitedFuture (83.2% probability, steady compared with yesterday), ACT (83.2%, up from 82.2%), Maori Party (75.6%, up from 75.2%) and Mana (73.1%, steady)
Marginal seats:
o Palmerston North (51% probability of being won by Labour’s Iain Lees-Galloway, compared with 51% probability for National’s Jono Naylor yesterday)
o Port Hills (55% for National’s Nuk Korako, steady)
o Christchurch Central (65% for Labour’s Tony Milne, down from 71% yesterday)
o Waimakariri (66% for National’s Matthew’s Doocey, up from 65%)
o Hutt South (71% for Labour’s Trevor Mallard, steady)
o Tamaki Makaurau (71% for Labour’s Peeni Henare, down from 75%)
o Te Tai Hauauru (71% for Labour’s Adrian Ruawhe, down from 74%)
o Napier (73% for Labour’s Stuart Nash, up from 71%)
o Te Tai Tokerau (71% for Mana’s Hone Harawira)
o Waiariki (75% for Maori Party’s Te Ururoa Flavell, up from 71%)
o Epsom (78% for Act’s David Seymour, down from 80%)
o Hamilton East (79% for National’s David Bennett, steady)
o Te Atatu (79% for Labour’s Phil Twyford, up from 75%)
o Ohariu (80% for UnitedFuture’s Peter Dunne, steady)
• Parliament expected to be:
o National: 59 seats (up from 55 seats yesterday)
o Labour: 36 seats (up from 35)
o Green: 17 seats (up from 16)
o Internet-Mana: 4 seats (steady)
o ACT: 2 seats (steady)
o Maori Party: 1 seat (steady)
o UnitedFuture: 1 seat (steady)
o NZ First: 0 seats (down from 6)
• National could form a government with current support partners
• If NZ First held the balance of power, it is expected to back National (61% probability, steady) or sit on cross benches (6.4%, up from 6.1% yesterday)
David Cunliffe expected to depart as Labour leader by end of year (57% probability, up from 56% yesterday) and be replaced by Grant Robertson (58.3%, steady)
John Key expected to depart as National leader by end of 2015 (59% probability, down from 60%) and be replaced by Steven Joyce (40.1%, steady)
• No rise in Official Cash Rate expected on 11 September (97.0% probability, down from 97.3% yesterday)
• Current account deficit (June quarter) expected to be 2.6% of GDP when announced on 17 September (up from 2.5% of GDP yesterday)
• GDP growth (June quarter) expected to be 0.7% when announced on 18 September (down from 0.8% yesterday)
• Unemployment expected to be 5.5% in September quarter (steady)
• Fiscal surplus in 2014/15 expected to be 0.17% of GDP (steady)
• Annual inflation to end of September quarter expected to be 1.4% (steady)

Notes: iPredict Ltd is owned by Victoria University of Wellington. Details on the company and its stocks can be found at www.ipredict.co.nz. The daily political update is prepared by Exceltium Ltd on a pro bono basis and is based on a snapshot taken at a random time each day. Today’s was taken at 1.36 pm.


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