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iPredict 2014 Election Daily Update #3

iPredict 2014 Election Daily Update #3

Wednesday 10 September 2014



Prime Minister John Key appears safe from being contradicted about his knowledge of Kim Dotcom prior to the raid on Mr Dotcom’s mansion, according to the combined wisdom of the 8000 registered traders on iPredict. Mr Key’s National Party continues to be expected to be able to form a government with his current support partners, ACT, UnitedFuture and the Maori Party. This is despite today’s snaphot showing iPredict traders believe Winston Peters’ NZ First Party will pass the 5% threshold. In electorate contests, Labour has gained ground in highly marginal Palmerston North and Christchurch Central, while National has gained ground in highly marginal Port Hills.

Detailed Information:

• Expected turnout 76.6% (down from 76.9% yesterday)

• National expected to lead next government with 80.0% probability (down from 81.3% yesterday)

• Only 33% probability that evidence will emerge publicly, before 1 January 2015, contradicting John Key's statement that he first knew Kim Dotcom's name the day before the police raid on Mr Dotcom's mansion

• Forecast party vote shares (major and minor parties, adjusted to sum to 100%):

o National: 45.3% (up from 44.7% yesterday)

o Labour: 26.0% (down from 27.8%)

o Green: 12.7% (down from 12.8%)

o NZ First: 5.6% (up from 4.8%)

o Conservatives: 4.1% (steady)

o Internet-Mana: 2.9% (up from 2.7%)

o ACT: 1.7% (up from 1.6%)

o Maori Party: 0.8% (up from 0.7%)

o UnitedFuture: 0.6% (up from 0.5%)

o ALCP: 0.2% (steady)

o Civilian Party: 0.1% (down from 0.2%)

• Four small parties expected to win at least one electorate seat: UnitedFuture (84.1% probability, up from 83.2% yesterday), ACT (83.2%, steady), Maori Party (75.6%, steady) and Mana (71.1%, down from 73.1%)

Marginal seats:

o Palmerston North (53% probability of being won by Labour’s Iain Lees-Galloway, up from 51% yesterday)

o Port Hills (60% for National’s Nuk Korako, up from 55%)

o Waimakariri (60% for National’s Matthew’s Doocey, down from 66%)

o Tamaki Makaurau (67% for Labour’s Peeni Henare, down from 71%)

o Christchurch Central (69% for Labour’s Tony Milne, up from 65%)

o Te Tai Tokerau (69% for Mana’s Hone Harawira, down from 71%)

o Hutt South (71% for Labour’s Trevor Mallard, steady)

o Te Tai Hauauru (71% for Labour’s Adrian Ruawhe, steady)

o Te Atatu (73% for Labour’s Phil Twyford, down from 79%)

o Napier (75% for Labour’s Stuart Nash, up from 73%)

o Waiariki (77% for Maori Party’s Te Ururoa Flavell, up from 75%)

• Parliament expected to be:

o National: 57 seats (down from 59 seats yesterday)

o Labour: 32 seats (down from 36)

o Green: 16 seats (down from 17)

o NZ First: 7 seats (up from 0)

o Internet-Mana: 4 seats (steady)

o ACT: 2 seats (steady)

o Maori Party: 1 seat (steady)

o UnitedFuture: 1 seat (steady)

• National could form a government with current support partners

• If NZ First held the balance of power, it is expected to back National (59% probability, down from 61% yesterday) or sit on cross benches (6.4%, steady)

David Cunliffe expected to depart as Labour leader by end of year (58% probability, up from 57% yesterday) and be replaced by Grant Robertson (51.7%, down from 58.3%)

John Key expected to depart as National leader by end of 2015 (57% probability, down from 59%) and be replaced by Steven Joyce (40.1%, steady). Note, if Labour’s probability of forming the next government is subtracted from Mr Key’s probability of departing as National leader by end of 2015, the probability of him doing so is 37%.

• No rise in Official Cash Rate expected on 11 September (97.0% probability, steady compared with yesterday)

• Current account deficit (June quarter) expected to be 2.6% of GDP when announced on 17 September (steady)

• GDP growth (June quarter) expected to be 0.7% when announced on 18 September (steady)

• Unemployment expected to be 5.5% in September quarter (steady)

• Fiscal surplus in 2014/15 expected to be 0.17% of GDP (steady)

• Annual inflation to end of September quarter expected to be 1.4% (steady)

Notes: iPredict Ltd is owned by Victoria University of Wellington. Details on the company and its stocks can be found at www.ipredict.co.nz. The daily political update is prepared by Exceltium Ltd on a pro bono basis and is based on a snapshot taken at a random time each day. Today’s was taken at 12.51 pm. Trading on iPredict to be suspended at 11.59 pm Friday 19 September and re-opened at 7.00 pm on Saturday 20 September


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