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iPredict Daily Election Update 4: Key & Cunliffe both gain




Thursday 11 September 2014




Both John Key and David Cunliffe made small gains from last night’s TV3 leaders’ debate, according to the combined wisdom of iPredict’s 8000 registered traders. Since yesterday, the probability of National leading the next government has improved marginally, as has Labour’s forecast party vote. Mr Key and Mr Cunliffe’s expected longevity as leader of their parties has also improved. National could form a government with its current support partners. If NZ First held the balance of power, the probability it would back National has also risen. Port Hills, Tamaki Makaurau, Te Tai Hauauru, Te Tai Tokerau and Hutt South have all become more marginal. Expectations for the 2014/15 surplus have fallen from 0.17% of GDP to 0.10% of GDP.

Detailed Information:

• Expected turnout 76.6% (steady compared with yesterday)

• National expected to lead next government with 81.3% probability (up from 80.0% yesterday)

• Only 29% probability that evidence will emerge publicly, before 1 January 2015, contradicting John Key's statement that he first knew Kim Dotcom's name the day before the police raid on Mr Dotcom's mansion (down from 33% yesterday)

• Forecast party vote shares (major and minor parties, adjusted to sum to 100%):

o National: 45.2% (down from 45.3% yesterday)

o Labour: 26.7% (up from 26.0%)

o Green: 12.7% (steady)

o NZ First: 5.3% (down from 5.6%)

o Conservatives: 4.2% (up from 4.1%)

o Internet-Mana: 2.8% (down from 2.9%)

o ACT: 1.6% (down from 1.7%)

o Maori Party: 0.7% (down from 0.8%)

o UnitedFuture: 0.6% (steady)

o ALCP: 0.2% (steady)

o Civilian Party: 0.1% (steady)

• Four small parties expected to win at least one electorate seat: ACT (86.6%, up from 83.2% yesterday), Maori Party (83.2%, up from 75.6%), UnitedFuture (82.2% probability, down from 84.1%), and Mana (66.8%, down from 71.1%)

Marginal seats:

o Palmerston North (55% probability of being won by Labour’s Iain Lees-Galloway, up from 53% yesterday)

o Port Hills (55% for National’s Nuk Korako, down from 60%)

o Waimakariri (60% for National’s Matthew’s Doocey, steady)

o Tamaki Makaurau (62% for Labour’s Peeni Henare, down from 67%)

o Te Tai Hauauru (65% for Labour’s Adrian Ruawhe, down from 71%)

o Christchurch Central (69% for Labour’s Tony Milne, up from 65%)

o Te Tai Tokerau (67% for Mana’s Hone Harawira, down from 69%)

o Hutt South (69% for Labour’s Trevor Mallard, down from 71%)

o Te Atatu (73% for Labour’s Phil Twyford, steady)

o Napier (75% for Labour’s Stuart Nash, steady)

o Waiariki (79% for Maori Party’s Te Ururoa Flavell, up from 77%)

• Parliament expected to be:

o National: 57 seats (steady compared with yesterday)

o Labour: 33 seats (up from 32)

o Green: 16 seats (steady)

o NZ First: 7 seats (steady)

o Internet-Mana: 3 seats (down from 4)

o ACT: 2 seats (steady)

o Maori Party: 1 seat (steady)

o UnitedFuture: 1 seat (steady)

• National could form a government with current support partners

• If NZ First held the balance of power, it is expected to back National (66% probability, up from 59% yesterday) or sit on cross benches (3.1%, down from 6.4%)

David Cunliffe expected to depart as Labour leader by end of year (52% probability, down from 58% yesterday) and be replaced by Grant Robertson (51.7%, steady)

John Key expected to depart as National leader by end of 2016 (62% probability, down from 71% yesterday) and be replaced by Steven Joyce (38.5%, down from 40.1%). Note, if Labour’s probability of forming the next government is subtracted from Mr Key’s probability of departing as National leader by the end of 2016, the probability of him doing so is 43%.

• As forecast by iPredict, there was no rise in the Official Cash Rate today, and no increase is expected on 30 October (93% probability).

• Current account deficit (June quarter) expected to be 2.5% of GDP when announced on 17 September (down from 2.6% yesterday)

• GDP growth (June quarter) expected to be 0.8% when announced on 18 September (up from 0.7% yesterday)

• Unemployment expected to be 5.5% in September quarter (steady)

• Fiscal surplus in 2014/15 expected to be 0.10% of GDP (down from 0.17% yesterday)

• Annual inflation to end of September quarter expected to be 1.4% (steady)

Notes: iPredict Ltd is owned by Victoria University of Wellington. Details on the company and its stocks can be found at www.ipredict.co.nz. The daily political update is prepared by Exceltium Ltd on a pro bono basis and is based on a snapshot taken at a random time each day. Today’s was taken at 11.11am. Trading on iPredict to be suspended at 11.59 pm Friday 19 September and re-opened at 7.00 pm on Saturday 20 September


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