Busting non-voter pattern myths | Election Data Consortium
Media release – for immediate use
Election Data Consortium
11 September 2014
Busting non-voter pattern myths
The common perception that centre-left parties like Labour and the Greens are hit much harder than National when their supporters do not turn up to vote does not hold up in light of polling analysis released today by the Election Data Consortium.
The Consortium is made up of polling company Roy Morgan and data analytics company Qrious. The analysis shows 36 percent of those aged between 18 and 24 who are enrolled but state they are unlikely to vote, indicated they preferred National. In comparison, younger non-voters indicated 39 percent of them preferred Labour and 19 percent supported the Greens.
“This is lower than National’s general polling support across all age groups but higher than many people probably believe the party receives from this block of potential voters,” says Qrious spokesman Cyrus Facciano.
“The rule-of-thumb is that lower turnout by young voters is automatically bad for the centre-left. That is true to some extent – but it is nowhere near the election-turning block of votes that some make it out to be.”
The pattern is similar across other ages, though these groups are more likely to vote than younger people. In the 35 to 49 age group, 39 percent of non-voters said they preferred National.
“The analysis and visualisation by Qrious shows the power of data analysis to really come to terms with information provided by Roy Morgan. This work will give the public and the media a better understanding of what is happening in voter patterns,” said Qrious spokesman Cyrus Facciano.
Qrious used Roy Morgan polling data from 1 May 2014 to 31 August 2014. Roy Morgan asks enrolled voters how they would vote. Roy Morgan also asks whether the person always votes or is likely to vote. These were classed as voters. Those indicating they never vote, seldom or rarely voted were classed as non-voters.
Roy Morgan and Qrious are working together as part of the Election Data Consortium to gain greater insights into what is driving the 2014 election.
About Roy Morgan Research - roymorgan.com
Roy Morgan Research is Australia’s best known and longest established market research company, with an unparalleled reputation for reliable, accurate, meaningful, revealing market research. Proudly independent, the Company now operates globally with offices in New Zealand, USA, UK, Indonesia and throughout Australia. See more here: roymorgan.com/about/about-roy-morgan-research
About Qrious - qrious.co.nz
Information. Insight. Action. We are entering a new, more connected digital age, where innovation can flourish. Qrious is here to provide the platform and the capability to support this phenomenon, through better use of information to provide insights that are actionable.