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iPredict Daily Update

iPredict Daily Update



David Cunliffe and Labour have made gains over the last 24 hours, according to the combined wisdom of the 8000+ registered traders on New Zealand’s predictions market, iPredict, but John Key’s National is still strongly expected to lead the next government as the Conservative Party passes MMP’s 5% threshold for the first time. Te Tai Tokerau, currently held by Internet-Mana’s Hone Harawira, has become highly marginal between him and Labour’s Kelvin Davis. Mr Cunliffe is narrowly expected to depart as Labour leader by the end of 2014, and Mr Key as National leader by the end of 2016.

Detailed Information:

• Expected turnout 81.0% (up from 78.6% yesterday)

• National expected to lead next government with 83.2% probability (down from 87.8% yesterday)

• Forecast party vote shares (major and minor parties, adjusted to sum to 100%):

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o National: 44.3% (up from 44.1% yesterday)

o Labour: 25.6% (up from 25.1%)

o Green: 13.6% (down from 13.7%)

o NZ First: 6.3% (up from 6.2%)

o Conservatives: 5.2% (up from 4.8%)

o Internet-Mana: 2.1% (down from 2.7%)

o ACT: 1.5% (down from 1.8%)

o Maori Party: 0.8% (steady)

o UnitedFuture: 0.4% (down from 0.5%)

o ALCP: 0.2% (steady)

o Civilian Party: 0.1% (down from 0.2%)

• Four small parties expected to win at least one electorate seat: Maori Party (88.8%, up from 88.1% yesterday), ACT (85.8%, down from 89.4%), UnitedFuture (81.3%, down from 83.2%), and Mana (69.0%, up from 65%)

• Marginal seats:

o Port Hills (50% for National’s Nuk Korako and 47.5% for Labour’s Ruth Dyson, compared with 50% each yesterday)

o Te Tai Tokerau (60% for Mana’s Hone Harawira, down from 71%)

o Palmerston North (65% for Labour’s Iain Lees-Galloway, up from 60%)

o Tamaki Makaurau (67% for Labour’s Peeni Henare, down from 75%)

o Christchurch Central (70% for Labour’s Tony Milne, down from 77%)

o Te Tai Hauauru (73% for Labour’s Adrian Ruawhe, up from 60%)

o Waimakariri (73% for National’s Matthew’s Doocey, up from 62%)

o Te Atatu (75% for Labour’s Phil Twyford, steady)

o Hutt South (79% for Labour’s Trevor Mallard, up from 69%)

o Waiariki (80% for the Maori Party’s Te Ururoa Flavell, down from 82% yesterday)

• Parliament expected to be:

o National: 53 seats (down from 56 yesterday)

o Labour: 31 seats (down from 32)

o Green: 16 seats (down from 17)

o NZ First: 8 seats (steady)

o Conservatives: 6 seats (up from 0)

o Internet-Mana: 3 seats (steady)

o ACT: 2 seats (steady)

o Maori Party: 1 seat (steady)

o UnitedFuture: 1 seat (steady)

• The current National/Act/UnitedFuture/Maori Party government would have only 57 seats and could not form a government

• Labour/Green/NZ First/Internet-Mana/Maori Party would have only 59 seats and could not form a government

• National/NZ First would have 61 seats and could form a government

• National/Conservatives/Act/UnitedFuture would have 62 seats and could form a government

• NZ First would not have the balance of power

• However, if NZ First did hold the balance of power, it is expected to back National (72% probability, down from 75% yesterday) or sit on cross benches (9.2%, up from 2.8%)

• David Cunliffe expected to depart as Labour leader by end of year (55% probability, down from 59% yesterday) and be replaced by Grant Robertson (65%, steady)

• John Key expected to depart as National leader by the end of 2016 (68% probability, compared with a 65% probability he would step down by the end of 2015 yesterday). However, if Labour’s probability of forming the next government is subtracted from Mr Key’s probability of departing as National leader by the end of 2016, the probability of him doing so is only 51%

• Steven Joyce is favourite to become National Party leader if a vacancy arises, with 35% probability (up from 34% yesterday) followed by Paula Bennett on 27% (down from 29% yesterday)

• GDP growth (June quarter) expected to be 0.7% when announced by Statistics NZ today (steady compared with yesterday)

• Unemployment expected to be 5.5% in September quarter (steady)

• Current account deficit (September quarter) to be 3.5% of GDP

• Annual inflation to end of September quarter expected to be 1.4% (steady)

• No increase in Official Cash Rate expected on 30 October (95% probability, steady)

• Fiscal surplus for 2014/15 expected to be 0.21% of GDP (down from 0.23% of GDP)

• 15% probability that evidence will emerge publicly, before 1 January 2015, contradicting John Key's statement that he first knew Kim Dotcom's name the day before the police raid on Mr Dotcom's mansion (steady compared with yesterday)

Notes: iPredict Ltd is owned by Victoria University of Wellington. Details on the company and its stocks can be found at www.ipredict.co.nz. The daily political update is prepared by Exceltium Ltd on a pro bono basis and is based on a snapshot taken at a random time each day. Today’s was taken at 9.56 am. Trading on iPredict to be suspended at 11.59 pm Friday 19 September and re-opened at 7.00 pm on Saturday 20 September


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