Gordon Campbell | Parliament TV | Parliament Today | News Video | Crime | Employers | Housing | Immigration | Legal | Local Govt. | Maori | Welfare | Unions | Youth | Search


New Zealand Weekly Economic & Political Update

iPredict Ltd

New Zealand Weekly Economic & Political Update

Monday 3 November 2014




Inflation and interest-rate expectations continue to fall, according to the combined wisdom of the 8000+ registered traders on New Zealand’s predictions market, iPredict. Former prime minister Helen Clark’s prospects of becoming the next Secretary-General of the United Nations have reached 40%. Andrew Little remains favoured to be the next leader of the Labour Party and there is at least a 55% probability his deputy will be a woman. Jonathan Coleman has emerged as a contender to eventually replace John Key as National Party leader, with 9% probability, behind the favourites Steven Joyce and Paula Bennett.


Next Labour Leader expected to be:

o Andrew Little 69% probability (up from 68% probability last week)

o Grant Robertson 26% probability (steady compared with last week)

o David Parker 5% probability (down from 6% last week)

o Nanaia Mahuta 0% probability (steady compared with last week)

Next Labour Deputy Leader expected to be:

o Jacinda Ardern 31% probability (down from 38% last week)

o Annette King 13% probability (up from 12% last week)

o Nanaia Mahuta 11% probability (up from 7% last week)

o Grant Robertson 10% probability (down from 12% last week)

o Andrew Little 8% probability (down from 9% last week)

o David Parker 7% probability (steady compared with last week)

o David Shearer 5% probability (down from 6% last week)

o Stuart Nash 4% probability (steady compared with last week)

o Other 13% probability (up from 4% last week)

John Key expected to remain National leader until at least the end of 2016 (72% probability, down from 74% last week) and has a 47% probability of remaining National leader until at least the end of 2017 (down from 49% last week)

• Steven Joyce is favourite to become National Party leader if a vacancy arises, (32% probability, down from 33% last week), followed by Paula Bennett (29%, down from 30% last week), Jonathan Coleman (9%, up from 3% last week) and Simon Bridges (7%, steady compared with last week)

• Next election expected in 2017 (92% probability, steady compared with last week)

• National expected to win 2017 General Election (52% probability, down from 53% last week)


• Quarterly GDP growth expected to be:

o 0.8% of GDP in the September quarter (steady compared with last week)

o 0.8% in the December quarter (steady compared with last week)

o 1.0% in the March 2015 quarter (steady compared with last week)

o 1.1% in the June 2015 quarter (steady compared with last week)

• Unemployment expected to be 5.4% in September quarter (steady compared with last week) and 5.4% in the December quarter (steady)

• Current account deficit expected to be 2.6% of GDP in the September quarter (steady compared with last week) and 3.9% of GDP in the December quarter (steady)

• Annual inflation expected to be:

o 1.1% to end of December quarter (down from 1.2% last week)

o 1.4% to end of March 2015 quarter (down from 1.5% last week)

o 1.8% to end of June 2015 quarter (steady compared with last week)

o 2.1% to end of September 2015 quarter (new this week)

• Official Cash Rate priced to be:

o 3.500% on 11 December (down from 3.509% last week)

o 3.505% on 29 January (down from 3.518% last week)

o 3.517% on 12 March (down from 3.552% last week)

o 3.552% on 30 April (down from 3.608% last week)

o 3.605% on 11 June (down from 3.693% last week)

o OCR stocks out to June 2016 will be launched this week

• Fiscal balance expected to be:

o -0.04% of GDP in 2014/15 (up from -0.07% last week)

o 0.95% of GDP in 2015/16 (steady)

o 1.98% of GDP in 2016/17 (steady)

o 2.37% of GDP in 2017/18 (steady)

Foreign Affairs/Constitution:

• There is a 36% probability New Zealand and South Korea will sign a Free Trade Agreement by 1 December 2014 (down from 43% last week)

• The Trans-Pacific Partnership is not expected to be ratified by the US Congress before 1 July 2017 (only 20% probability it will be, steady)

• Helen Clark’s prospects of being the next UN Secretary General have improved to 40% probability, up from 35% last week

• There is a 19% probability New Zealand will become a republic by 2020 (down from 21% last week)


• iPredict Ltd is owned by Victoria University of Wellington. Details on the company and its stocks can be found at www.ipredict.co.nz.

• The weekly economic and political update is prepared by Exceltium Ltd on a pro bono basis and is based on a snapshot taken at a random time each week. This week’s was taken at 12.51 pm today.


© Scoop Media

Parliament Headlines | Politics Headlines | Regional Headlines

Gordon Campbell: On The Virtues (and Fluffed Opportunities) Of The Operation Burnham Report

One unspoken rule of thumb in any official public inquiry is : whatever you do, don’t conclude you were made to listen to “a litany of lies” even if the evidence of a deliberate cover-up is right there under your nose. In that respect, the report into the 2010 Operation Burnham military raid in Afghanistan has been a model of decorum. Bad stuff did happen and has been duly noted and lamented - but only as a lapse and departure from usual professional standards. Normal service can be trusted to resume shortly... More>>


Office Of The Speaker: Parliament Is Revamping Its Rules

Today, the Standing Orders Committee’s report on the review of Standing Orders was presented to the House. The Speaker of the House, the Rt Hon Trevor Mallard, chairs the committee. He said today that the 2020 review will make our rules more ... More>>

Environment: Govt Progress On Climate Change Essential, Risk Assessment Shows

The release of the National Climate Change Risk Assessment shows that the progress this Government has made to solve the climate crisis is essential to creating cleaner and safer communities across New Zealand. “Because of this report, we can see clearer ... More>>

Economy: Investing In The Tourism Sector’s Recovery

More than $300 million in funding has been approved to protect strategic tourism businesses, drive domestic tourism through regional events and lift digital capability in the tourism industry, Tourism Minister Kelvin Davis announced today. A $400 million ... More>>


National On MP Bill: Waka-Jumping Repeal Bill Passes First Reading

The Electoral (Integrity Repeal) Amendment Bill has passed its first reading, marking one step closer to Parliament getting rid of NZ First’s ‘waka-jumping’ legislation, National List MP David Carter says. “I’d like to thank the Greens for voting ... More>>


Covid-19:Legislation For Managed Isolation Payments Introduced

Hon Dr Megan Woods Minister of Housing Legislation to allow the Government to recover some of the costs for managed isolation and quarantine will be introduced to Parliament today, said Minister of Housing Megan Woods. “The Bill will allow the government ... More>>


Your Vote 2020: Bringing Election Coverage To Viewers Across TVNZ Channels And Platforms

As New Zealand gets ready to head to the ballot box this September, 1 NEWS is bringing voters comprehensive coverage and analysis of this year’s General Election. TVNZ’s coverage will draw on the depth of experience held across the 1 NEWS team, says Graeme ... More>>

Economy: 30% Believe Households Worse Off, 298,000 Expect To Lose Jobs

64% of New Zealanders feel the economic position of their households is the same or better than a year ago – and 30% think it is worse or much worse, while 298,000 think they will lose their jobs in the next 12 months. Households’ perceptions ... More>>

State Services Commission: Findings Of Investigation Into COVID-19 Active Cases Privacy Breach

Deputy State Services Commissioner Helene Quilter has today announced the findings of an investigation into a breach of privacy regarding sensitive personal information. The investigation looked into who or what caused the disclosure of the information, ... More>>

International Security: New Zealand Suspends Extradition Treaty With Hong Kong

The New Zealand Government has suspended its extradition treaty with Hong Kong and made a number of other changes in light of China’s decision to pass a national security law for Hong Kong, Foreign Affairs Minister Winston Peters says. More>>


Energy: 100% Renewable Electricity Grid Explored With Pumped Storage ‘battery’

The Government is taking a significant step toward its goal for 100% renewable electricity generation in a move that could be a game changer for consumers and the creation of a low-emissions economy, Energy & Resources Minister Megan Woods said. ... More>>






InfoPages News Channels