Gordon Campbell | Parliament TV | Parliament Today | News Video | Crime | Employers | Housing | Immigration | Legal | Local Govt. | Maori | Welfare | Unions | Youth | Search


SIS Scandal Leaves Key Unscathed



Wednesday 26 November 2014




Prime Minister John Key has been almost entirely unscathed by the SIS scandal, according to the combined wisdom of the 8000+ registered traders on New Zealand’s predictions market, iPredict. The probability Mr Key will remain leader of the National Party until at least the end of 2016 is unchanged and the probability National will lead the next government is down just 1% to 52%. Judith Collins is expected to return to Mr Key’s Cabinet before the next election. Economic forecasts are broadly unchanged.


• As overwhelmingly forecast by iPredict, Andrew Little was elected leader of the Labour Party last Thursday. Stocks on how long Mr Little will remain in the job will be launched in the near future.

John Key is expected to remain National leader until at least the end of 2016 (73% probability, steady compared with last week) and has a 47% probability of remaining National leader until at least the end of 2017 (up from 46% last week)

• Steven Joyce is again favourite to become National Party leader if a vacancy arises (26%, steady compared with last week), followed by Paula Bennett (25% probability, down from 28%), Jonathan Coleman (10%, steady) and Simon Bridges (8%, steady)

• Next election expected in 2017 (93% probability, up from 89% last week)

Judith Collins expected to be appointed to Cabinet before next election (65% probability)

• National expected to win 2017 General Election (52% probability, down from 53% last week)


• Quarterly GDP growth expected to be:

o 0.8% of GDP in the September quarter (steady compared with last week)

o 0.8% in the December quarter (steady compared with last week)

o 1.0% in the March 2015 quarter (steady compared with last week)

o 1.1% in the June 2015 quarter (steady compared with last week)

• Unemployment expected to be 5.3% in the December quarter (steady compared with last week)

• Unemployment stocks for 2015 will be launched in the near future

• Current account deficit expected to be 2.4% of GDP in the September quarter (down from 2.6% last week) and 3.8% of GDP in the December quarter (steady)

• Annual inflation expected to be:

o 1.1% to end of December quarter (steady compared with last week)

o 1.4% to end of March 2015 quarter (steady compared with last week)

o 1.7% to end of June 2015 quarter (down from 1.8% last week)

o 2.1% to end of September 2015 quarter (steady compared with last week)

• Official Cash Rate priced to be:

o 3.504% on 11 December (up from 3.502% last week)

o 3.506% on 29 January (up from 3.503% last week)

o 3.520% on 12 March (up from 3.518% last week)

o 3.546% on 30 April (up from 3.545% last week)

o 3.599% on 11 June (up from 3.598% last week)

o 3.655% on 23 July (up from 3.654% last week)

o 3.712% on 10 September (up from 3.711% last week)

o 3.769% on 29 October (new stocks)

o 3.821% on 10 December 2015 (new stocks)

o OCR stocks out to June 2016 will be launched in the near future

• Fiscal balance expected to be:

o -0.03% of GDP in 2014/15 (down from +0.02% last week)

o 0.95% of GDP in 2015/16 (steady)

o 1.98% of GDP in 2016/17 (steady)

o 2.37% of GDP in 2017/18 (steady)

Foreign Affairs/Constitution:

• The Trans-Pacific Partnership is not expected to be ratified by the US Congress before 1 July 2017 (only 29% probability it will be, up from 23% last week)

• Helen Clark’s prospects of being the next UN Secretary General have are 20% (steady compared with last week)

• There is a 19% probability New Zealand will become a republic by 2020 (steady compared with last week)


• iPredict Ltd is owned by Victoria University of Wellington. Details on the company and its stocks can be found atwww.ipredict.co.nz.

• The weekly economic and political update is prepared by Exceltium Ltd on a pro bono basis and is based on a snapshot taken at a random time each week. This week’s was taken at 12.39 pm today.


© Scoop Media

Parliament Headlines | Politics Headlines | Regional Headlines

Gordon Campbell: On The Erebus Memorial In Parnell

Social media can be a wonderful tool for bringing people together in a common cause. It can also be a seedbed and spreader of mis-information on a community-wide scale. To which category do the protests against the siting of an Erebus memorial (to the 257 New Zealanders who died in that tragedy) in a secluded corner of a Parnell park happen to belong? IMO, it is clearly the latter, and the reasons for thinking so are explained below... More>>


Agriculture: Government To Phase Out Live Exports By Sea

The Government has announced that the export of livestock by sea will cease following a transition period of up to two years, said Agriculture Minister Damien O’Connor. “At the heart of our decision is upholding New Zealand’s reputation for high ... More>>


Norman Gemmell: New Zealand’s New Housing Policy Is Really Just A New Tax Package — And It’s A Shambles

Norman Gemmell , Te Herenga Waka — Victoria University of Wellington Economists like to talk about “optimal policy instruments” — essentially, policies that achieve their objectives more effectively or efficiently than the alternatives, and ... More>>

Climate Change: Emissions Report Shows Urgent Action Needed

Every part of Government will need to take urgent action to bring down emissions, the Minister for Climate Change, James Shaw said today in response to the recent rise in New Zealand’s greenhouse emissions. The latest annual inventory of New ... More>>


Claire Breen: ACC’s Policy Of Not Covering Birth Injuries Is One More Sign The System Is Overdue For Reform

Claire Breen , University of Waikato Recent media coverage of women not being able to get treatment for birth injuries highlights yet another example of gender bias in healthcare in New Zealand. More>>

Police: Police Accept Findings Of IPCA Report Into Photographs Taken At Checkpoint

Police accept the findings of a report by the Independent Police Conduct Authority (IPCA) relating to photographs taken at a checkpoint in Northland. On November 16, 2019, Police set up a checkpoint down the road from a fight night event in Ruakaka ... More>>


Health: Drug-Testing Law To Be Made Permanent

Interim legislation that is already proving to keep people safer from drugs will be made permanent, Health Minister Andrew Little says. More>>




InfoPages News Channels