Gordon Campbell | Parliament TV | Parliament Today | News Video | Crime | Employers | Housing | Immigration | Legal | Local Govt. | Maori | Welfare | Unions | Youth | Search

 

Research paper: The Economics of the TPPA

Research paper: The Economics of the TPPA

The fifth in a series of expert peer reviewed papers on the implications of the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPPA) for New Zealand was posted on the TPP Legal website today.

The paper examines the key economic issues that likely to be impacted by the TPPA – the predicted economic benefits of the TPPA for the New Zealand economy, the implications for agricultural trade, the impact on value chains for New Zealand exporters, the potential for regulatory ‘chill’ and the degree to which it fulfils the aim of being a ‘21st Century agreement’.

The paper was co-authored by Tim Hazledine, Professor of Economics at the University of Auckland Business; Rod Oram, business journalist and author; Geoff Bertram, Senior Associate at the Institute for Policy and Governance at Victoria University; and Barry Coates, researcher and former Executive Director of Oxfam New Zealand. The peer reviewer was John Quiggin, an Australian Laureate Fellow in Economics at the University of Queensland.

“It is striking how little the TPPA will deliver. Without the TPPA, our GDP will grow by 47% by 2030 at current growth rates. The TPPA would add only 0.9%”, says Barry Coates, who co-authored the section on modelling with Tim Hazledine.

“Even that small benefit is a gross exaggeration. The modelling makes unfounded assumptions, and the real benefits will be far smaller. If the full costs were included, it is doubtful that there would be any net economic benefit to the New Zealand economy.”

The main beneficiaries of tariff reductions from TPPA will be agricultural exporters, but modest tariff reductions of 1.3% on average by 2030 will be dwarfed by the ongoing volatility in commodity prices and exchange rates. The TPPA is not a gold standard agreement. “There remain extensive trade barriers to New Zealand agricultural exporters into the Japanese, Canadian and US food markets, and these are now locked in under the TPPA” explains Barry Coates who authored the section on agricultural trade.

“‘The TPPA has also failed to tackle agricultural subsidies that are a major trade distortion. The TPPA has undermined negotiations in the World Trade Organisation, the only viable forum for removing these trade distorting subsidies.”

“The investor-state dispute provisions, combined with restrictions on state-owned enterprises, will deter future New Zealand governments from a whole raft of regulatory and industrial policies that would be in the public interest, for fear of litigation by corporate interests whose profits are threatened” says Geoff Bertram, who authored the section on regulatory chill.

“The essence of the chilling process is the threat, not necessarily the actuality, of repercussions. The TPPA’s last-minute exclusion of big tobacco from the dispute process has only grazed the tip of a very large iceberg.”

“The TPPA will likely reinforce our position as a commodity producer and hinder our progress up the value chain where greater economic prosperity lies,” says Rod Oram, who authored the sections on value chains and the 21st Century agreement.

“Moreover, the TPPA reads very much like a charter for incumbent businesses, with US companies to the fore, that are attempting to hold back the tides of economic change the world needs.”

The series of expert peer-reviewed papers is supported by a grant from the Law Foundation. Previous papers have examined the Implications for Regulatory Sovereignty (Jane Kelsey) and Investment (Amokura Kawharu), te Tiriti (Carwyn Jones et al), and Environment (Simon Terry). Research on the implications of the TPPA for local government will be released shortly.

Notes: The research report is on the TPP Legal website at: https://tpplegal.files.wordpress.com/2015/12/ep5-economics.pdf

ENDS

© Scoop Media

 
 
 
Parliament Headlines | Politics Headlines | Regional Headlines

Gordon Campbell: On The Geo-political Posturing Over China’s Cyber Hacks, Plus The Weekly Playlist

The timing was one of the weirder aspects of this week’s cyber condemnation of China by the West. Why was this piece of political theatre being staged now? China (and Russia’s) sponsoring and/or condoning of semi-state and criminal hacker groups has been known about for nigh on a decade. More particularly, Microsoft had been alerted to the flaws in its Microsoft Exchange... More>>




 
 


Government: Quarantine Free Travel With Australia Suspended

Quarantine Free Travel from all Australian states and territories to New Zealand is being suspended as the Covid situation there worsens, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern and COVID-19 Response Minister Chris Hipkins announced today... More>>

ALSO:


Government: New Zealand Condemns Malicious Cyber Activity By Chinese State-sponsored Actors

New Zealand has established links between Chinese state-sponsored actors known as Advanced Persistent Threat 40 (APT40) and malicious cyber activity in New Zealand. “The GCSB has worked through a robust technical attribution process in relation to this activity. New Zealand is today joining other countries in strongly condemning this malicious activity... More>>

ALSO:

Government: Commits $600,000 To Flood Recovery

The Government is contributing $600,000 to help residents affected by the weekend’s violent weather with recovery efforts. Acting Minister for Emergency Management Kris Faafoi and Agriculture Minister Damien O’Connor have been in the Buller district this afternoon to assess flood damage and support the local response effort... More>>

ALSO:



NZUS Council: Welcomes Nomination Of Senator Tom Udall As US Ambassador To NZ

The NZUS Council welcomes the nomination of Senator Tom Udall to the role of US Ambassador to New Zealand and Samoa, NZUS Council executive director Jordan Small said... More>>

BusinessNZ: Visa Extensions Welcomed
BusinessNZ has welcomed the extension of some critical skill visa durations and changes to immigration systems to speed processing. Chief Executive Kirk Hope says move acknowledges advocacy by the hospitality sector, the BusinessNZ Network and others, and comes not a moment too soon.... More>>



Social Development: Government Initiatives Contribute To Fall In Benefit Numbers

Minister for Social Development Carmel Sepuloni has welcomed the release of the June quarter Benefit Statistics which show a continuing fall in the number of people receiving a Main Benefit... More>>


 
 
 
 
 
 

LATEST HEADLINES

  • PARLIAMENT
  • POLITICS
  • REGIONAL
 
 

InfoPages News Channels