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Newshub-Reid Research Poll Shows Labour In Box Seat On Election Eve

On election eve, Labour is still in a position to govern alone - but only just, with a one seat majority on 45.8% support (down 4.3 percentage points) according to the latest Newshub-Reid Research poll* results.

National has risen slightly to 31.1% (up 1.5 percentage points) but it’s not enough to put it in a position to form a government - even with the help of ACT.

David Seymour’s party is still the star of the minor leagues; a bump of 1.1 percentage points taking ACT to 7.4%.

The Greens are holding steady on 6.3% (down 0.2) but the party to watch on election night might be New Zealand First. It’s had the biggest jump in support since our last poll, up 1.6 percentage points to 3.5%, but still shy of the threshold to make it back into parliament.

Jacinda Ardern is the preferred Prime Minister for 52.6% of those surveyed (down 0.6 percentage points). Judith Collins' popularity has risen slightly to 18.4% (up 0.7 percentage points).

Tova O’Brien, Newshub Political Editor, says: “On these numbers the election is Labour’s to lose, but the possibilities around those minor parties mean it is the ultimate nail biter.”

Tova O’Brien, Duncan Garner and Patrick Gower will host Newshub’s Decision 2020 Election Night on Three from 7PM tomorrow night.

“In politics, anything can happen so tomorrow - like this entire campaign - we are in for a thrill, it will continue to surprise us, enthral us, challenge us and entertain us,” says O’Brien.

The poll also asked about how people intended to vote in the two referendums. A majority of 56.1% said they would vote ‘yes’ to the referendum question on euthanasia and 33.4% said they would vote ‘no’. Recreational cannabis looks unlikely to be legalised with 55.6% saying they would vote ‘no’ to the referendum question and 38.3% saying they would vote ‘yes’.

*The latest Newshub-Reid Research Poll was conducted between 08-15 Oct 2020. 1000 people were surveyed, 700 by telephone and 300 by internet panel. It has a margin of error of 3.1 percent.

**The previous Newshub-Reid Research poll was conducted between 16-23 Sept 2020 with a sample size of 1000 eligible voters and a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percent.

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