For the first time in the Taxpayers' Union – Curia poll, the Prime Minister's net favourability rating is negative. Outgoing PM Jacinda Ardern’s rating has dropped 4 points compared to last month from +3% to -1%. Back in September 2021, she was on +32%.

Christopher Luxon similarly scores a result of -1% this month, but his trend over the same period has been upwards. In September 2021, he was on -33%. David Seymour is on -4% while Winston Peters scores -40%.

On decided voting intention, Labour falls 1 point from last month to 32% – its lowest ever level in our poll – while National is also down 2 points to 37%. ACT is up 1 point and the Greens are up 3 points with both sitting on 11% each. The smaller parties are New Zealand First on 2.8% and the Māori Party on 1.6%.

On seats, National is down 2 seats to 49 while Labour is down 1 seat to 41. ACT is up 1 seat and the Greens are up 4 seats to both be on 14 seats each. The Maori Party is down 2 seats to 2.

This means a slight narrowing of the gap between the two major blocs with the Centre-Right down 1 seat on last month to a combined 63 seats and the Centre-Left up 3 seats to a combined total of 55.

Video and audio analysis from Taxpayers' Union co-founder and Curia Director, David Farrar:

Please note that the above were recorded prior to yesterday's announcement of the Prime Minister's resignation.

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