The Māori electorate of Ikaroa-Rāwhiti is anyone’s game where a third of voters are yet to choose their candidate.

Ikaroa-Rāwhiti was flung open when former Labour minister, Meka Whaitiri, switched to Te Pāti Māori in May.

A Whakaata Māori exclusive poll has revealed Labour’s newcomer, Cushla Tangaere-Manuel, has an eight-point lead over Whaitiri. But the field is still wide open with 29% of those polled still undecided on which candidate they will choose. Vision NZ candidate, Ata Tuhakaraina, is yet to make the leaderboard.

The poll, conducted by Curia Market Research, was completed on Tuesday and places Tangaere-Manuel at 33% and Whaitiri on 25%.

Ikaroa-Rāwhiti has been a Labour stronghold since it was established in 1999.

If undecided voters follow Whaitiri, she will be the first non-Labour MP in the electorate’s 24-year history.

But Labour loyalty may put Tangere-Manuel over the line as a first-time candidate.

The former Ngāti Porou East Coast Rugby CEO isn’t on the Labour Party List and must win to enter parliament.

The Whakaata Māori poll revealed Labour is still the preferred party at 33%, ahead of Te Pāti Māori on 24%. But Te Pāti Māori is gaining ground among younger voters, with 39% support from those aged 18–39 compared to Labour’s 24%.

Ikaroa-Rāwhiti covers the entire eastern side of the North Island from the East Cape to Gisborne, Hawkes Bay, Wairarapa and down to Hutt Valley. It includes some of the worst hit areas of this year’s Cyclone Gabrielle.

Poll respondents identified cost of living as their leading issue at 23%, followed by the economy and employment, both on 9%. Males cared about employment whereas females were more concerned with health and housing.

Whakaata Māori released the poll results during a live debate with Tangaere-Manuel and Whaitiri from its new studio, Hawaikirangi, in East Tāmaki.

More exclusive polling will be released across its special election debates of the Māori electorates.

A total of 500 registered voters in each electorate were polled by Curia Market Research by landline, mobile and online with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 per cent. Ikaroa-Rāwhiti median response was collected on Tuesday 19 September 2023.

Join Whakaata Māori for WHAKATAU 2023 where we continue to test the pulse of the Māori electorates on air and online, MĀORI+ and teaonews.co.nz.

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