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Labour Up, Greens Down But Centre-Right Remains Ahead

National is up slightly on last month to 37.3% (+0.2 points) while Labour is up to 30.0% (+4.3 points). The Greens maintain third place with 10.2% (-4.4 points) while ACT gain 2.2 points bringing them to 9.4%

The smaller parties are NZ First on 5.5% (-0.8 points) and Te Pati Maori on 3.1% (-1.5 points).

For the minor parties, TOP is on 1.4%, Outdoors and Freedom is on 1.1%, and the others combined were on 2%

This month's results are compared to last month's Taxpayers' Union – Curia poll.

National maintains its 47 seats in Parliament, while Labour is up five seats to 37. The Greens drop back to 13 seats (down five), while ACT rises to 12 seats (up three). NZ First is down one seat to 7 while Te Pati Maori is unchanged on 6 seats.

The combined projected seats for the Centre-Right of 66 seats is up 2 from last month while the Centre-Left is steady on 56 seats.

On these numbers, National and ACT would require the support of NZ First to form a government. Due to the drop in Te Pati Maori's support, a Parliament on these figures would have 2 overhang seats.

45.1% (+6.2 points) of New Zealanders think the country is heading in the right direction while 42.6% (-5.3 points) say the wrong direction for a net country direction of +2.5% (up 11.5 points)

This is the first time since February that voters have had a net positive view of the country direction.

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The scientific poll was conducted by Curia Market Research and commissioned by the New Zealand Taxpayers’ Union. The full polling report is being released exclusively to members of our Taxpayer Caucus. As is well known, but for full disclosure, David Farrar co-founded the Taxpayers' Union and previously served on its board. He is also a Director of Curia Market Research Ltd.

The Taxpayers’ Union – Curia Poll was conducted from Sunday 05 May to Tuesday 07 May 2024. The median response was collected on Monday 06 May 2024.

The target population is adults aged 18+ who live in New Zealand and are eligible and likely to vote. The sample population is adults aged 18+ who live in New Zealand and are eligible and likely to vote who are contactable on a landline or mobile phone or online panel. 1,000 respondents agreed to participate, 800 by phone and 200 by online panel. The number of decided voters on the vote questions was 945. There were 33 undecided voters and 25 who refused the vote question.

A random selection of 15,000 NZ phone numbers (landlines and mobiles) and a random selection from the target population from up to three global online panels (that comply with ESOMAR guidelines for online research). If the call is to a landline, the person who is home and next has a birthday is asked to take part. Those who take part through an online panel are excluded from further polls on the same topic for six months. Multiple call-backs occurred to maximise the response rate. Those who said they were unlikely or very unlikely to vote were excluded.

The poll was part of a wider omnibus survey for multiple clients. Questions on voting sentiment are asked before any other questions. The questions were asked in the order they are listed. The results are weighted to reflect the overall voting adult population in terms of gender, age, and area. Based on this sample of 1,000 respondents, the maximum sampling error (for a result of 50%) is +/- 3.1%, at the 95% confidence level. Results for sub-groups such as age and area will have a much higher margin of error and not seen as precise.

This poll was conducted in accordance with the NZ Political Polling Code, Research Association New Zealand Code of Practice and the International Chamber of Commerce/European Society for Opinion and Market Research Code on Market and Social Research.

The polling questions and the order in which they were asked can be found here.

This poll should be formally referred to as the “Taxpayers’ Union – Curia Poll”.

The New Zealand Taxpayers’ Union is an independent and membership-driven activist group, dedicated to being the voice for Kiwi taxpayers in the corridors of power. Its mission, lower taxes, less waste, more accountability, is supported by 200,000 subscribed members and supporters.

The Taxpayers' Union operates a 24-hour media line for comment on taxpayer issues. Representatives are available on (04) 282 0302.

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