Jayne Winfield, Chief Government Accountant

The Interim Financial Statements of the Government of New Zealand for the ten months ended 30 April 2025 were released by the Treasury today. The April results are reported against forecasts based on the Budget Economic and Fiscal Update 2025 (BEFU 2025), published on 22 May 2025, and the results for the same period for the previous year.

The majority of the key fiscal indicators for the ten months ended 30 April 2025 were slightly better than forecast. The Government’s main operating indicator, the operating balance before gains and losses excluding ACC (OBEGALx), showed a deficit of $7.4 billion. This was $0.1 billion smaller than forecast. While the core Crown results were favourable to forecast, this was largely offset by the results of State-owned Enterprises. Net core Crown debt was in line with forecast at $184.6 billion, or 43.2% of GDP.

Core Crown tax revenue, at $100.4 billion, was $0.7 billion (0.7%) higher than forecast. Corporate tax and other individuals’ tax contributed $0.4 billion and $0.2 billion respectively to the above forecast result.

Core Crown expenses, at $115.8 billion, were $0.1 billion (0.1%) below forecast. This variance is mostly timing in nature and was spread across a range of agencies.

The OBEGALx was a deficit of $7.4 billion, $0.1 billion less than the forecast deficit. When including the revenue and expenses of ACC, the OBEGAL deficit was $11.7 billion, in line with the forecast deficit.

The operating balance deficit of $6.7 billion was $2.8 billion higher than the forecast deficit. This reflected both the OBEGAL result and net unfavourable valuation movements. Net gains on financial instruments were $4.3 billion lower than forecast, driven by New Zealand Superannuation Fund (NZS Fund) and ACC’s investment portfolios. This unfavourable variance was partly offset by net gains on non-financial instruments being $1.3 billion higher than the forecast loss. This was largely owing to the New Zealand Emissions Trading Scheme with net gains on the liability being $1.1 billion higher than the forecast loss.

The core Crown residual cash deficit of $8.4 billion was $0.1 billion lower than forecast. While net core Crown operating cash outflows were $0.4 billion higher than forecast, net core Crown capital cash outflows were $0.5 billion lower than forecast.

Net core Crown debt at $184.6 billion (43.2% of GDP) was in line with forecast. With core Crown residual cash broadly in line with forecast, this and minor movements in non-cash items contributed to the net core Crown debt result.

Gross debt at $203.5 billion (47.7% of GDP) was $6.3 billion lower than forecast, largely owing to lower than forecast unsettled trades and issuances of Euro Commercial Paper.

Net worth at $181.4 billion (42.5% of GDP) was $3.1 billion lower than forecast largely reflecting the year-to-date operating balance result.

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