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Climate Outlook for Nov 09/Jan 10
30 October 2009
NIWA's National Climate Centre has just released its seasonal climate outlook for the next three months (November 2009 - January 2010).
IN SUMMARY: MODERATE El Niño CONDITIONS, BUT MUTED INFLUENCE ON NZ IN THE COMING SEASON
An El Niño is now at moderate strength across the equatorial Pacific, and is likely to persist through summer. It is not expected to have a strong influence on New Zealand climate in the coming 3 months, according to the latest outlook from NIWA’s National Climate Centre.
The Centre says rainfall is likely to be in the normal range in many regions, but normal or below normal conditions are likely for the north and east of the North Island, averaged over the November-December-January season as a whole.
Temperatures for the coming 3-month period (November, December, and January combined) are likely to be near average for the North Island and Nelson/Marlborough, but are likely to be in the average or below average ranges for the rest of the South Island.
River flows and soil moisture are likely to be normal or below normal in all regions.
FOR MORE DETAIL, INCLUDING THE PROBABILITIES OF DIFFERENT CONDITIONS AND CONTACTS FOR FURTHER COMMENT, PLEASE READ THE FULL OUTLOOK ATTACHED.
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