Video | Business Headlines | Internet | Science | Scientific Ethics | Technology | Search

 

NIWA Outlook: September-November 2015

NIWA Outlook: September-November 2015

Overview

Strong El Niño conditions are present in the tropical Pacific ocean. Sea surface temperature anomalies in the central and eastern Pacific intensified during August 2015 and are now close to +2oC. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is strongly negative (-2.0 for August 2015, value estimated on the 2nd of September) and westerly wind anomalies (weaker trade-winds) dominate the central and western equatorial Pacific, indicating a strong coupling between the ocean and the atmosphere.

International guidance indicates that El Niño is certain (100% chance) to continue over the next three months (September – November 2015) and extremely likely (above 90% chance) to persist into summer 2015/2016. The current state of the ocean-atmosphere in the Pacific and the international consensus forecast suggest that this event could then rank amongst the 4 strongest El Niño events recorded (along with 1972/73, 1982/83 and 1997/98).

During September – November 2015, above normal pressure is forecast over and to the south of Australia, while below normal pressure is expected to the east of New Zealand. This circulation pattern is likely to be accompanied with anomalous southwesterly winds.

Sea surface temperatures are forecast to be normal or below normal in the Tasman west of New Zealand, while surface water temperatures are expected to be in the below normal range to the east of the country.

Outlook Summary

September – November 2015 temperatures are about equally likely (40-45% chance) to be average or below average for the North Island and in the north of the South Island. Mean temperatures for the season as a whole are most likely (50% chance) to be in the below average range for the west and east of the South Island. Cold snaps and frosts are to be expected in some parts of the country from time to time.

September – November 2015 rainfall totals are most likely (45-50% chance) to be in the below normal range for the north and east of the North Island. Seasonal rainfall totals are about equally likely (35-40% chance) to be in the near normal or below normal range in the west of the North Island and the north and east of the South Island. Near normal rainfall is the most likely outcome (45% chance) for the west of South Island.

September – November 2015 soil moisture levels and river flows are most likely (45-50% chance) to be below normal in the north and east of the North Island and the east of the South Island. In the western regions of both Islands, soil moisture levels and river flows are about equally likely (35-40% chance) to be in the near normal or below normal range. In the north of the South Island, soil moisture levels are most likely (45% chance) to be below normal, and river flows are about equally likely (35-40% chance) to be in the near normal or below normal range.

SCO_September2015.pdf

© Scoop Media

 
 
 
Business Headlines | Sci-Tech Headlines

 

Energy Resources Aotearoa: New Law On Decommissioning Could Be Costly Overkill
A new law on decommissioning oil and gas fields passed by Parliament today has good intentions but is overkill, according to Energy Resources Aotearoa. "We strongly support operators taking responsibility and paying the costs for decommissioning, which is what all good operators do," says chief executive John Carnegie... More>>


Commerce Commission: News Publishers’ Association Seeks Authorisation To Engage In Collective Bargaining

News Publishers’ Association of New Zealand Incorporated seeks authorisation and provisional authorisation to engage in collective bargaining with Facebook and Google. The Commerce Commission has received applications from News Publishers’ Association of New Zealand Incorporated (NPA) seeking authorisation and provisional authorisation on behalf of itself... More>>


Reserve Bank: MPC Continues To Reduce Monetary Stimulus
The Monetary Policy Committee agreed to raise the Official Cash Rate (OCR) to 0.75 per cent. The Committee agreed it remains appropriate to continue reducing monetary stimulus so as to maintain price stability and support maximum sustainable employment... More>>

PriceSpy: Producer Prices Increase
New Black Friday and Covid-19 Report* released by PriceSpy says people’s fear of stepping inside physical shops during big sales events like Black Friday has risen since last year; Kiwis are still planning to shop, but more than ever will do it online this year... More>>

NZ Skeptics Society: Announce Their 2021 Awards, And Dr Simon Thornley Wins The Bent Spoon

Every year the New Zealand Skeptics presents its awards to people and organisations who have impressed us or dismayed us, and this year it’s been hard to pick our winners because there have been so many choices!.. More>>



REINZ: Sales Volumes Leveling Out

Data released today by the Real Estate Institute of New Zealand (REINZ) shows there were 44 fewer lifestyle property sales (-2.6%) for the three months ended October 2021 than for the three months ended September 2021... More>>


BNZ: Auckland Retail Card Spending Bounces Back In Step Two
Bank of New Zealand (BNZ) card spending data released today shows one week of retail therapy at Alert Level 3 Step 2 has been enough to raise card spending in Auckland to levels greater than before the Delta lockdown... More>>