Video | Business Headlines | Internet | Science | Scientific Ethics | Technology | Search

 

Tracking Models for Tropical Cyclone Gita

CLIMsystems, Hamilton, New Zealand: Tracking Models for Tropical Cyclone Gita Show Possible Future Impact for New Zealand

Cyclone activity is ramping up in the South Pacific and New Zealanders are heightening their appreciation of how this can impact the country. While there is a debate on when information should be shared with the public through the media there are multiple sources freely available that all have something different to offer. From this information people can and do make their own decisions on how to respond. That is the reality in the internet age. Every person, family, community or business has a different risk profile and therefore information and its timeliness of delivery and actions required will be uniquely theirs. But if and when a cyclone or extropical depression or any other extreme event is imminent for New Zealand it is local authorities that are most relevant.

Some of the key sources of information are well-known such as the New Zealand Met Service, NIWA and Weather Watch. Other useful sources include the Joint Typhoon Warning Center and the ExtendWeather South Pacific Cyclone Tracker. One of the more useful sites is Cyclocane that provides access to graphs of the ensemble of cyclone tracking models. The current release of tracks for Gita does show a range of possibilities and some do include New Zealand and hence there is at least some risk but it is difficult to quantify at this point in time. Checking back regularly is critical as ensembles of tracking do tend to tighten up and become more accurate as a possible storm event draws nearer.

The Extendweather South Pacific Cyclone Tracker is updated regularly and the speed that a cyclone or extropical depression is making forward progress can be assessed. While there are multiple factors that enter into risk assessments one important one is the speed at which depressions move past or across New Zealand. The rate of forward motion of a tropical or extropical depression can influence the length of time with sustained rain and wind for a particular location or coastline and number of high and low tide cycles that may be influenced, for example. This sort of information can be factored into preparation planning.

The other issue to be considered is that Gita could potentially arrive following an already extensive rainy period for some areas. This means that water tables are rising and streams and rivers are in some cases already running high. The additional potential rainfall could pose an even greater risk when considered in the context of current conditions.

At CLIMsystems and Extendweather we advocate for awareness and resilience planning. The international scientific community advocates for multiple lines of evidence to be considered in decision making and thus recommends the processing of an ensemble of information. The scientific community offers online services and the public has increasing access to this information without mediation from the media. If that leads to increased awareness and action toward mitigating risk and raising resilience then a partnership between a better prepared and aware society and all levels of government will hopefully evolve.

Useful Information:

Extendweather South Pacific Cyclone Tracker: http://www.extendweather.com/SouthPacificCycloneTracker

Cyclocane: https://www.cyclocane.com/gita-spaghetti-models/

Metservice: http://www.metservice.com/national/home


NIWA: https://weather.niwa.co.nz/


Weatherwatch: http://www.weatherwatch.co.nz/

UW-Madison Satellite Images: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/imagemain.php?&basin=austeast&prod=irn&sat=gms


© Scoop Media

 
 
 
Business Headlines | Sci-Tech Headlines

 


Commerce Commission: Mercury Cleared To Acquire Trustpower’s Retail Business

The Commerce Commission has granted clearance for Mercury NZ Limited to acquire Trustpower Limited’s retail business. Deputy Chair Sue Begg said the Commission is satisfied that the acquisition is unlikely to substantially lessen competition in any New Zealand market.... More>>



Consumer NZ: Buy-now, Pay-later Raking In $10m+ In Late Fees Annually

A Consumer NZ survey has found buy-now, pay-later services are costing shoppers more than $10 million a year in late fees. Close to four out of 10 Kiwi consumers use buy-now, pay-later services, such as Afterpay, Laybuy and Zip... More>>

Westpac: Catherine Mcgrath Appointed New Zealand CEO

Westpac Group CEO Peter King and the Westpac New Zealand Board today announced the appointment of Catherine McGrath as Chief Executive Officer, Westpac New Zealand... More>>


Statistics: Surge In Imports Results In Record Monthly Trade Deficit
Imports increased $1.8 billion in August 2021 compared with August 2020, resulting in a record monthly trade deficit of $2.1 billion, Stats NZ said today. Exports were little changed, down $42 million. "This is a larger deficit than normal because of higher values for imports.. More>>

Fonterra: Completes reset, announces annual results and long-term growth plan out to 2030

Fonterra Co-operative Group Limited today announced a strong set of results for the 2021 financial year, reflected in a final Farmgate Milk Price of $7.54, normalised earnings per share of 34 cents and a final dividend of 15 cents... More>>


Statistics: GDP rises in the June 2021 quarter

Gross domestic product (GDP) rose by 2.8 percent in the June 2021 quarter, following a 1.4 percent increase in the March 2021 quarter, Stats NZ said today. June 2021 quarter GDP was 4.3 percent higher when compared with the December 2019 quarter... More>>