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Cablegate: Mozambican General Elections: Parallel Vote

This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

UNCLAS MAPUTO 001603

SIPDIS
MILLENNIUM CHALLENGE CORP
SENSITIVE
FOR AF/FO AND AF/S
MCC PASS TO BRIGGS AND GAULL
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM MZ
SUBJECT: MOZAMBICAN GENERAL ELECTIONS: PARALLEL VOTE
TABULATION GIVES WIN TO GUEBUZA

REF: MAPUTO 1587 AND PREVIOUS

Not for Internet Distribution

1. (U) On December 9 the Carter Center-supported National
Electoral Observatory released its parallel vote tabulation
(PVT). The PVT, based on a sample of 775 individual polling
station results collected by 1600 observers, gives FRELIMO's
Guebuza 63.6 percent of the presidential vote, with RENAMO's
Dhlakama garnering a mere 31.7 percent. FRELIMO came out the
winnner in the parliamentary races too, with 60 percent
compared to 29 percent for the RENAMO-UE coaltion. No other
party reached the five percent threshold of parliamentary
votes needed to qualify to win seats in the National
Assembly. According to the Carter Center, the PVT has a
three percent margin of error. Within this margin it should
accurately represent the actual vote. The Observatory's
report, however, points to the need to investigate anomalous
voter turnout in Changara, Tete province (refs).

2. (SBU) Later on December 9, during a radio interview with
the BBC, Dhlakama rejected the validity of the PVT, asserting
it was based on fraudulent data. Dhlakama also called for
new elections, with President Chissano to remain in office
another 6 months until the results of a repeat election could
be "sorted out." Dhlakama claimed massive fraud, citing
cases of intimidation, ballot stuffing, and manipulation of
polling results during the tabulation process. (Comment:
Though ballot stuffing appears to be a plausible explanation
for the unlikely results in Changara and in one or two other
places, we have not received credible reports of widespread
intimidation or of tampering with the tabulation process.
End comment.)

3. (SBU) Under law, provincial election results should have
been announced by December 9. No province met this deadline.
Vote tabulation at the national level, with partial results
from the provinces, began in Maputo on December 8. However
it was halted shortly after it began due to technical
difficulties and was not resumed until late in the afternoon
of December 9.
LA LIME

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