Cablegate: Media Reaction: North Korea, Cross-Strait

This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 000553

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR INR/R/MR, EAP/RSP/TC, EAP/PA, EAP/PD -
ROBERT PALLADINO
DEPARTMENT PASS AIT/WASHINGTON

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: OPRC KMDR KPAO TW
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION: NORTH KOREA, CROSS-STRAIT
RELATIONS

1. North Korea

"[Taiwan] Must Not Overlook the Impact [Created] by
Pyongyang Declaring That It Possesses Nuclear Weapons"

The centrist, pro-status quo "China Times" commented in
an editorial (2/14):

". Pyongyang's declaration [that it possess nuclear
weapons], without doubt, indicates that the focus of
the `nuclear crisis on the Korean Peninsula' has pushed
the previous argument over Pyongyang's ability to
`manufacture' nuclear weapons to [a new stage where the
focus is] `possession' of nuclear weapons. In other
words, the message that Pyongyang sent to the world was
that people no longer need to discuss whether North
Korea needs to freeze its facilities that manufacture
nuclear weapons. North Korea has, no matter how,
succeeded in producing nuclear weapons and is thus
basically a country in possession of nuclear weapons.
The whole agenda for a meeting will be totally
different even if the Six-Party talks resume in the
future. .

". Even though it remains to be seen how the situation
will further develop [on the Korean Peninsula], one
thing can be sure: the move by Pyongyang has forced the
other five countries involving in the Six-Party talks
to adopt a unified position for the time being because
the hawks in other countries have all started to
criticize [Pyongyang]. It will not be too difficult
for the United States to resolve the North Korean issue
first before handling the Iran issue as long as it can
get rid of the mud and dirt of Iraq. China, of course,
will not be happy to have another bad neighbor that
owns nuclear weapons and will thus increase its
pressure on Pyongyang. Taiwan, on the other hand,
should watch closely whether the whole new chess game
will again lead to a re-organization of power in East
Asia."

2. Cross-Strait Relations

"Several Indicators to Monitor the Future of Cross-
Strait Relations"

The centrist, pro-status quo "China Times"
editorialized (02/12):

". Monitoring cross-Strait relations after the Chinese
New Year, [we can] possibly adopt a situational factor
and three dynamic indicators. The so-called
situational factor is the development of the U.S.-China
relationship. After President George W. Bush got re-
elected, it is easy to tell from the several policy
directions proposed by Secretary of State Condoleezza
Rice that Washington has adjusted its policy toward
China from that of strategic-competition to one that is
more cooperative. On one hand, the United States is
eager to pull itself out of the Iraqi quagmire, and it
needs Beijing's cooperation on issues concerning Iran
and North Korea. Under such a strategic environment,
Washington, of course, will not allow incidents to
occur across the Taiwan Strait. Over the past year,
several issues caused by Taiwan's elections, such as
the referendum, [plan to] institute a constitution, and
the names-change plan, have unexpectedly helped to
establish closer links between Washington and Beijing.
Several behaviors by the Taipei authority have
incrementally been interpreted by Washington as
attempts to `unilaterally change the status quo,' and
Beijing has become used to pressuring Taipei
diplomatically via the strength of Washington. The
situational factor will likely continue in 2005. In
other words, Washington and Beijing may have
differences on several issues but they will further
understand each other's positions with regard to the
cross-Strait issue. The situational factor will
further constrain Taiwan's space in the triangular
relationship.

"Under the constraints of the macro situational factor,
the three dynamic indicators we need to examine are:
the legislative progress of [Beijing's] "anti-secession
law," further negotiations on direct cross-Strait
charter flights, and the possibility that a Taiwan
delegation visits China, either one led by PFP Chairman
James Soong or by Legislative Yuan President Wang Jin-
pyng. ."

PAAL

© Scoop Media