Cablegate: Severino Cavalcanti Leads Brazilian Congress In

This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BRASILIA 000767

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/21/2015
TAGS: PGOV PINR PREL ECON SOCI BR
SUBJECT: SEVERINO CAVALCANTI LEADS BRAZILIAN CONGRESS IN
UNEXPECTED DIRECTIONS

REF: A. BRASILIA 387

B. BRASILIA 573
C. BRASILIA 043

Classified By: POLOFF RICHARD REITER, REASON 1.4B AND D.

1 (C) SUMMARY. In February, Severino Cavalcanti was elected
Speaker of Brazil's Chamber of Deputies. Thus, an unknown
with an undistinguished career built on small-state
clientelism was thrust improbably into the national
spotlight. Cavalcanti is already having a strong, if
somewhat peculiar, influence on Brazilian politics. His
unpredictability and independence have alternately irritated
and delighted the governing coalition and the Lula
administration. Cavalcanti's priorities are not exactly at
odds with President Lula's, but he is intent on making the
Chamber more independent of the executive branch. His
election as Speaker is both a cause and a consequence of the
administration's inability to strengthen the governing
coalition, and his rise will complicate Lula's efforts to
push his agenda through Congress. The jury is still out on
whether Cavalcanti is in over his head or is a clever
tactician outmaneuvering his opponents. In any event, he
represents a return of clientelist politics rooted in social
assistance programs and pork-barrel projects that do little
to advance the broader national debate. Cavalcanti, though,
has an affection for Abraham Lincoln and President Bush. END
SUMMARY.

CAVALCANTI'S STYLE -- NO STYLE AT ALL
-------------------------------------
2. (C) On February 14, the Brazilian Chamber of Deputies
(lower house) elected Severino Cavalcanti, an undistinguished
back-bencher from the right-wing Progressive Party (PP) as
its new Speaker (ref A). In his ten years in Congress (after
three decades in state politics), Cavalcanti --a 74-year old
with no college education-- had never chaired a committee or
sponsored significant legislation. His support base in the
northeastern state of Pernambuco comprises religious
conservatives and small towns in the state's interior that
benefit from the largesse of their local "colonel".
Presiding over the Chamber for a month now, Cavalcanti has
left a strong impression with his untailored speaking style,
his unabashed quest for Congressional perks, and his
insistence that the congressional agenda be independent of
the administration's (although his PP party is a member of
Lula's coalition). He has alternately irritated the
administration, the coalition, the opposition, the Senate,
and his own party. Until, or unless, Cavalcanti settles into
a more predictable pattern, it is impossible to say how the
legislative agenda will fare in the coming months. In his
first five weeks, Cavalcanti has scored some unexpected
victories and suffered some unnecessary defeats.

ACTIVE LEGISLATIVE AGENDA...
----------------------------
3. (C) Cavalcanti has announced his intent to dust off old
bills, even over the administration's protests, that were
stalled for political reasons. He also seems poised to
advocate an expensive populist agenda that could threaten the
GoB's fiscal austerity. In short order, he has:

- pushed hard for a raise in Congressional salaries, only to
be rebuffed by the Senate. Piqued, he responded with a
decree raising Deputies' office stipends by 25%;

- reluctantly sent the Biosafety law to the Chamber floor,
where it passed on March 2 (ref B). A religious
conservative, Cavalcanti opposed the bill because it
authorizes stem-cell research, but he allowed it to come to a
vote under heavy pressure from both sides of the aisle;

- forced the Lula administration to back down and revise
Presidential Decree 232, a controversial measure that would
raise taxes on the agricultural and service sectors;

- sent the "Parallel Pension Reform" to the floor where it
passed and went to the Senate. This bill was part of the
compromise that allowed the passage of the broad 2003 pension
reform. But the administration (and the former Speaker) kept
the parallel bill off the floor because it waters down the
original reform. Far from reducing the US$14 billion deficit
in the pension system predicted for this year, the parallel
bill would add another US$480 million in expenses;

- took advantage of an inattentive coalition leadership to
pass a budget-busting US$10 billion increase in social
assistance benefits. If the measure survives the Senate,
Lula will be forced to veto it.

...AND UNPREDICTABLE POLITICAL MANEUVERS
----------------------------------------
4. (C) Meanwhile, Cavalcanti's blunt speaking style,
throwback political positions and sheer lack of shame have
made for some interesting moments. He has:

- entertained the press with his colorful comments ("Congress
is not a suppository") and his political incorrectness
(remarks that excuse slave labor "in certain situations");

- used his influence to get drunk driving charges dropped
against a hometown constituent;

- been visibly bewildered by a noisy demonstration of gay
activists in his office, which elicited his promise to send a
gay rights bill to the floor even though he himself would
vote against it;

- irritated his own party by acting without consulting party
leaders; insisting that his personal favorite (Federal Deputy
Ciro Nogueiro) get the PP's cabinet slot in Lula's upcoming
cabinet shuffle;

- irked the opposition PSDB by trading insults with a PSDB
Deputy as he buried the Deputy's attempt to sue President
Lula; and irritated the opposition PFL when he tried to
negotiate directly with the administration changes to
Presidential Decree 232 (see above).

A LOOK AHEAD - POOR VISIBILITY
------------------------------
5. (C) Congress has a full plate of important bills ranging
from tax and political reform to abortion and gay rights (ref
C), but Cavalcanti's unpredictable behavior makes it
impossible to assess how the agenda will fare. His PP party
had always been a docile coalition member, but as soon as he
was elected Speaker, PP leaders began demanding a greater
policy role and cabinet seats, suggesting that the PP is
unlikely to help the coalition overcome its deep disarray.
Indeed, much of the uncertainty in Congress stems from the
coalition's self-inflicted wounds. Lula's Workers' Party
(PT) has been negligent in coordinating or disciplining its
allies, and Lula has dragged out the cabinet shuffle for
three months, aggravating the disorder. Brazil's political
parties are notoriously undisciplined, so coalition
maintenance is an ongoing struggle. Thus, Cavalcanti's
influence on the Chamber agenda has been amplified precisely
because coalition leaders have been AWOL. By now,
significant numbers in all the coalition parties, including
the PT, see no need to make political sacrifices on tough
votes or to hew to administration wishes --even where these
wishes are made clear. As a result, the administration was
unable to muster even the 40% of floor votes required to kill
the Parallel Pension reform (see above). One observer noted
that "the administration is watching, with its arms crossed"
as Congress passes budget-busting bills. It remains to be
seen whether these bills will survive more sober debate in
the Senate and then whether President Lula will directly
confront Cavalcanti by vetoing them.

COMMENT - POPULIST BUMPKIN OR CLEVER TACTICIAN?
--------------------------------------------- --
6. (C) After five weeks as Speaker of the Chamber, it is too
soon to judge Severino Cavalcanti, but his two-year mandate
coincides with the second half of Lula's term, so their fates
are bound together. Friends insist that Cavalcanti's
indelicate demeanor disguises a savvy tactician. "Someone
who's been in public life for forty years and never lost an
election has got to be pretty clever", observes PP president,
Pedro Correa. Indeed, within one month Cavalcanti got
himself elected to the third highest job in the country over
Lula's own candidate, boosted the profile of his party,
imposed his own man on Lula's cabinet, and is driving the
federal legislative agenda.

7. (C) Others see Cavalcanti's rise as a sign that something
is broken in Brazilian politics. Party discipline has never
been weaker, so policy initiatives are often hamstrung by
unexpected (and some argue unhealthy) compromises, while
debate is reduced to demagoguery. Cavalcanti merely signals
the reemergence of clientelist politics, he is not the cause.
The GoB for years has fed the populist culture by offering
assistance programs instead of economic growth as a
development policy. When, as now, fiscal constraints impose
cuts on the social handouts, then dissatisfied citizens turn
to populists for quick fixes. Brazilians are accustomed to
looking to the state to solve individual problems, creating a
fertile field for Cavalcanti's brand of clientelism.
Cavalcanti was elected Speaker with a decisive 60% of the
floor votes, many of them unknowns like him, more interested
in funneling pork to their constituents than national debates
over the greater good.

8. (C) While he is neither widely-traveled nor well-read,
Cavalcanti has a certain affection for some well-known US
Republicans. In a recent interview, Cavalcanti named as his
favorite politician Abraham Lincoln "who bears a certain
resemblance to me. He came up from the bottom and defended
the oppressed. I am his reflection". To an interviewer who
raised Cavalcanti's conservative politics he said, "I
disagree with some of (President Bush's) positions, but I
always praise those who voted for him because he defends
things that need to be defended, like the family".

DANILOVICH

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