Cablegate: Basque Elections: Eta Supporters Gain Seats

This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 MADRID 001495

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PTER SP
SUBJECT: BASQUE ELECTIONS: ETA SUPPORTERS GAIN SEATS

REF: MADRID 1382

1. (U) The moderate Basque Nationalist Party (PNV) won its
eighth straight regional election, but lost four seats in the
75-seat Basque Parliament to the radical leftist Communist
Party of the Basque Lands (EHAK), which had the explicit
support of ETA front-group Batasuna. The Marxist-Leninist
EHAK was founded in 2002 and was not a factor in the 2005
Basque elections until Batasuna threw its support behind EHAK
after the Spanish government barred another ETA front group
from participating in the vote (see reftel). Zapatero will
face intense criticism from the PP for his government's
failure to impede EHAK's participation in the election (as
the PP urged), a decision which resulted in increased
political power for ETA front organizations.

2. (U) Overall, however, the election was a victory for
Zapatero. The Basque wing of the Socialist Party (PSOE)
gained five seats, mostly at the expense of the Popular Party
(PP), and the combined strength of the PP and PSOE now places
them one vote ahead of the PNV/United Left (EB-IU) coalition
in the Basque Parliament. The erosion of support for the PNV
is seen as a repudiation its plan to seek near-independence
from Madrid, both by moderates who view it as too extreme and
by nationalist radicals who seek outright secession from
Spain.

//ELECTION RESULTS//

3. (U) 2005 Basque Parliamentary Election results:

PNV -- 29 Seats -- 463,873 votes -- 38.6 percent of the
vote

PSOE -- 18 Seats -- 272,429 votes -- 22.6 percent of the
vote

PP -- 15 Seats -- 208,795 votes -- 17.3 percent of the
vote

EHAK -- 9 Seats -- 150,188 votes -- 12.5 percent of the
vote

EB-IU -- 3 Seats -- 64,000 votes -- 5.4 percent of the
vote

ARALAR -- 1 Seat -- 28,001 votes -- 2.3 percent of the
vote

NOTE: Aralar is a former ETA front group that has denounced
terrorism, but remains allied to leftist nationalist
positions.

The following 2001 Basque Parliamentary Election results are
provided for comparison:

PNV -- 33 Seats -- 604,222 votes -- 42.7 percent of the
vote

PP -- 19 Seats -- 326,933 votes -- 23.1 percent of the
vote

PSOE -- 13 Seats -- 253,195 votes -- 17.9 percent of the
vote

EB-IU -- 3 Seats -- 78,862 votes -- 5.5 percent of the
vote

EH -- 7 Seats -- 143,139 votes -- 10.1 percent of the
vote

NOTE: EH was the ETA front-group banned from political
activity in 2003 under Spain's "Law of Political Parties."

//TOUGH CHOICES FOR MODERATE BASQUE NATIONALISTS//

4. (SBU) The electoral setback leaves the PNV with three
unpalatable options:

A) Lead with a weakened coalition, seeking temporary
alliances when necessary;

B) Seek an alliance with the Socialist Party (the PSOE would
insist on limiting PNV moves towards independence);

C) Seek an alliance with the radical nationalist EHAK
(opening the PNV to accusations that it tolerates ETA
violence).

Most observers expect the PNV to go with the first option and
forge ahead with a weakened PNV/IU-EB coaliton, at least for
the moment. However, Zapatero and the PSOE have given clear
indications that they are open to a renegotiation of the
existing Basque Autonomy Statute, though strictly within the
limits set by the Spanish constitution. This sets the PSOE
apart from the PP, which rejects any increase in Basque
autonomy. Over time, the PNV may be tempted to drop its
alliance with smaller leftist nationalist in favor of a
coalition with the PSOE, especially if the Socialists
continue to support moderate Basque nationalist objectives.
This alliance would come at some cost to both the PNV and the
PSOE; for the PNV because a coalition with the Socialists
would imply acceptance of rule from Madrid and irritate its
Basque nationalist base, and for the PSOE because the
majority of the Spanish electorate resents Basque
nationalists and would view a PSOE/PNV coalition as Socialist
political opportunism.
MANZANARES

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