Cablegate: France's Referendum On Constitution: Voters

This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

161733Z May 05

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 PARIS 003342

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

DEPT ALSO FOR EUR/WE, EUR/ERA, EUR/PPD, DRL/IL, INR/EUC AND
EB
DEPT OF LABOR FOR ILAB
DEPT OF COMMERCE FOR ITA

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV ELAB EU FR PINR SOCI ECON
SUBJECT: FRANCE'S REFERENDUM ON CONSTITUTION: VOTERS
LARGELY INDIFFERENT TO ANTI-AMERICAN ARGUMENTS

REF: A. (A) PARIS 3208

B. (B) PARIS 3103
C. (C) PARIS 2942 AND PREVIOUS
D. (D) PARIS 1998 AND PREVIOUS

SUMMARY
-------
1. (SBU) Arguments aiming to tap into anti-Americanism among
the French to win support either for or against the proposed
constitution have by and large met with indifference from
ordinary voters. This has not prevented the TV debates
featuring major politicians, the print editorials and the
non-stop TV commentary from being occasionally punctuated by
calls to "vote 'yes' to build a strong Europe able to stand
up to the U.S.", or "vote 'no' to save Europe from dominance
by the U.S. and NATO". Overall, the U.S. has come up
dispassionately, as an example of a rival, both economic and
political, to be countered by a united Europe. The
referendum debate has been dominated by voters' focus on
their straitened economic circumstances. This has brought to
the fore arguments about whether ordinary Frenchmen and women
will be economically secure with the proposed constitution
for Europe, and has pushed to the margins efforts to exploit
in the referendum debate hostility towards the U.S. The U.S.
(along with Britain) consistently appears in the debate
depicted as the source of a "liberal" economic model that
must be held at bay. END SUMMARY.

U.S. IN THE BACKGROUND OF CENTRIST VOTERS' CONCERNS
--------------------------------------------- ------
2. (SBU) Contrary to expectations, of the Socialist Party
(PS) in particular, which planned a campaign that featured
"Yes, to a strong Europe against the U.S." theme (reftel D),
French voters have largely shrugged off efforts to sway them
based on appeals to anti-Americanism. Francois Rebsamen, the
PS official in charge of the party's 'yes' campaign, admitted
as much. He told Poloff on April 19 that calls to support
the constitution in order to counter U.S. power have carried
little weight with voters at large, including the PS's
center-left electorate. One result seems to have been a
recasting of this theme in the PS's latest campaign flyers.
The "strong Europe" theme now barely mentions the U.S.
Instead, it focuses on Europe's political weakness and
highlights the institutional changes in the constitution that
could give Europe more weight in international affairs.

3. (SBU) Pollsters seeking to establish voters' motivation
do not specifically ask about the U.S., but do track such
issues as "desire for a political Europe" and "conviction
that French identity is under threat." These are important
issues for voters, but considerations relating to the U.S.
seem to be in the background, not the foreground, for
center-left and center-right voters. These voters' focus is
on France's continued leadership role in a political Europe
or on further surrender of French sovereignty to Europe, not
on how the U.S. might fit into the equation. Not
surprisingly, anti-Americanism is a stronger motivator on the
far right and the far left. The 'no' argument of both far
right "France First" sovereignists and far left
anti-Americans, that the proposed Constitution creates an
"Atlanticist Europe dominated by the United States," finds
ground for traction in the resentments and suspicions of
these "traditionalist" voters of both far right and far left.

OPPOSITION TO U.S. PERSISTS IN POLITICAL CLASS
--------------------------------------------- -
4. (SBU) The low-profile of anti-American themes in the
referendum debate, however, has not prevented the TV debates
featuring major politicians, the print editorials and the
non-stop TV commentary from being occasionally punctuated by
appeals to anti-Americanism. Most striking has been the way
establishment figures, including high-ranking officials,
have, near inadvertently, let slip evidence of a world view
in which building a strong Europe is fundamentally about
countering American power. Foreign Minister Barnier, for
example, in a major televised debate on April 25, as he was
sitting down ending an intervention in favor of adopting the
constitution, tossed off the remark, "The choice is not
between France and Europe, as some say; the choice is between
a European Europe and a Europe under the influence of the
United States." COMMENT: The bias this remark reveals is far
from exclusively Barnier's; it is shared by many of both left
and right in the French political class, including President
Chirac. END COMMENT.

POPULAR FOCUS IS ON THE CONSTITUTION AND THE ECONOMY
--------------------------------------------- -------
5. (SBU) The referendum debate so far has been dominated by
voters' focus on their straitened economic circumstances
(reftel B). The continuing strength of the 'no' vote is in
large part driven by anger at unemployment, outsourcing,
diminished purchasing power, and deteriorating public
services. The constitution and the elite that favor it are a
convenient target for this anger. Among the most effective
arguments of the 'yes' camp is that a stronger Europe could
work to improve economic conditions for ordinary Frenchmen
and women -- help France protect its jobs, industries and
social model. One unexpected result of this focus on how the
French might best cope in an increasingly competitive global
economy has been the very common catchphrase "like the U.S.
and China." This phrase surfaces whenever advocates of the
constitution argue that only through a strong Europe can
France hope to protect its trade and economic interests in a
global economy structured by three great centers of economic
power.

COMMENT
-------
6. (SBU) The U.S. and China are an odd couple for such a
regularly repeated pairing. The conventional wisdom among
the French is that the U.S., China and Europe are somehow a
trio of equals, soon to achieve some sort of parity in
determining the global future, and that the U.S. and China
both pose serious challenges to Europe. Whether or not the
proposed constitution enables Europe to meet these economic
challenges, while retaining a compassionate social model seen
to be alien to both the U.S. and Chinese systems, is a
question that is gaining prominence as the referendum debate
enters its final two weeks. But this is different than a
debate about countering U.S. power globally.
Middle-of-the-road voters' relative indifference to
anti-American themes in the referendum campaign is partly
explained by their preoccupation with economic security in a
global environment. END COMMENT.
WOLFF

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