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Cablegate: Media Reaction: Cross-Strait Relations

This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

090805Z May 05

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 05 TAIPEI 002075

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR INR/R/MR, EAP/RSP/TC, EAP/PA, EAP/PD -
ROBERT PALLADINO
DEPARTMENT PASS AIT/WASHINGTON

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: OPRC KMDR KPAO TW
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION: CROSS-STRAIT RELATIONS


1. Summary: President Chen Shui-bian's key moves in an
attempt to quell the strong criticism against him
within the DPP were the spotlight of the Taipei dailies
May 7-9. All the major Taiwan newspapers reported in
their front pages May 9 Chen's exclusive and live
interview with the Sanlih TV channel Sunday evening, in
which Chen said he felt that the ongoing "China fever"
signals that Beijing has already started interfering
with Taiwan's upcoming National Assembly elections and
constitutional reform efforts. The pro-independence
"Liberty Times," Taiwan's biggest daily, ran a banner
headline on its front page that read: "China instructed
[PFP Chairman James] Soong to oppose the inclusion of
the referendum [on people's rights to amend the
constitution] into the Constitution." The sub-headline
added: "President Chen pointed out that [China's Taiwan
Affairs Office Director] Chen Yunlin went to the United
States and met with Soong [earlier this year]; Chen
also placed pressure on the U.S. authorities. Soong
denied there was such a meeting." The front-page
headline of the pro-unification "United Daily News"
also said: "Bian: Soong opposed to including the
referendum [on people's rights with regard to
constitutional amendments] into the Constitution in
exchange for [Beijing's invitation] to visit China." A
page-two news story in the "Liberty Times" also quoted
Chen as saying that "the move to include the referendum
[on people's rights with regard to constitutional
amendments] into the Constitution is a de facto move to
institute the Constitution."

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2. Several editorials and commentaries discussed U.S.
President George W. Bush's telephone call to his
Chinese counterpart Hu Jintao last Thursday and the
United States' role in cross-Strait relations. A
"China Times" commentary by its News Editor Chang Li
said Bush's call on Beijing to reach out to Taiwan was
aimed at reminding all the parties involved not to
forget the presence of the United States in the cross-
Strait interaction. A separate "China Times"
commentary also said Bush has been playing a key role
in the recent development of cross-Strait relations.
An op-ed article by a political science professor
printed in the "United Daily News" said the United
States is promoting a "peace but no unification with
China" tactic through James Soong's China visit. But
this may bring more problems for Washington. The
editorials of limited-circulation, pro-independence
English-language "Taipei Times" and "Taiwan News" also
noted that Bush's urging of Hu to reach out to Chen
showed that Chen's recent moderate approach to dealing
with domestic and cross-Strait affairs has secured
renewed support from Washington.

3. In terms of cross-Strait relations, an editorial of
the "Liberty Times" called on the Taiwan government to
remain alert to China's threat despite the visits by
Lien Chan and James Soong to China. A "United Daily
News" editorial, on the other hand, urged the Taiwan
government to accept free interpretations of one China
by the two sides across the Strait in order to create a
new cross-Strait situation. End summary.

A) "Bush Speaks out, and Both Sides of the Taiwan
Strait Shakes Hands?"

News Editor Chang Li commented in the "United Notes"
column of the pro-unification "United Daily News"
[circulation: 600,000] (5/7):

"When Taiwan's opposition leaders visited China
successively, U.S. President George W. Bush called his
Chinese counterpart Hu Jintao via the hotline to
express his hope that Beijing would reach out to the
Taiwan government proactively. The Chen Shui-bian
administration also immediately articulated its
gratitude to [Washington for Bush's call]. Right at
that moment, [it seemed as if] all the related parties
in cross-Strait relations have all stepped onto the
stage. Washington's move to actively ask Beijing to
extend an olive branch to Taiwan was aimed at reminding
all the parties involved not to forget the presence of
the United States in the cross-Strait relations.

"For Washington, the recent development of cross-Strait
relations seems to have gone beyond expectations. Just
as the State Department said recently that `the current
development of cross-Strait relations is no longer in
the United States' control.' [AIT Director] Douglas
Paal's call on [KMT Chairman] Lien Chan before and
after his China trips indicated the U.S. desire to
control and lead the [cross-Strait] situation.

"Lien's China trip has not only enhanced his reputation
and that of the KMT but has in the meantime, trampled
on President Chen Shui-bian's ruling authority. What
the United States dreads is that the Chen
administration will not be able to stop the strong
pressure of [Taiwan's public view] and as a result,
will be dragged by or suddenly tilt toward China during
the interaction across the Taiwan Strait. Should that
happen, the United States will totally lose its control
and leadership of cross-Strait relations.

"The United States attaches great importance to the
enormous benefits in the Chinese market. But on the
other hand, it is concerned that the `rise of China'
will threaten United States leadership and its
strategic position in the international community.
Taiwan will be a very useful bargaining chip [for
Washington] to strike a balance between the two ends.
Bush's request that Hu contact the Taiwan government
is, to a certain extent, speaking from the role of an
international arbiter by asserting that only official
contact is effective. Such a move, which was
tantamount to letting the Taiwan government throw the
ball of pressure back to Beijing, was also an attempt
to help the Chen Shui-bian government head off danger.

"Both Lien and [PFP Chairman] James Soong represent
Taiwan's opposition powers, and they are free to do
anything they plan to because they don't need to
shoulder the pressure of ruling the government. As a
result, they will not listen to everything Washington
says, and the United States can therefore have only
limited influence on them. Bush's call [to Hu], on the
one hand, can test Beijing's real intentions in
interacting with Taiwan's opposition parties. On the
other hand, it could prevent the situation from
deviating too much from its current track. That way
the United States have the opportunity to exert its
influence again. While the Bush administration held
the hand of the Taiwan government, it was also
reminding the Taiwan people not to forget the presence
of the Taiwan government and of course the U.S. big
brother.

"Even though Bush's hotline talk [with Hu] has
additionally released some of the pressure the Chen
government faces now, don't forget: the United States
is only concerned about whether cross-Strait relations
are under its control. Questions like whether pandas
can come to Taiwan, whether Taiwan's agricultural
products can be exported to China and whether Chinese
tourists can visit Taiwan are simply technical issues
of the administrative levels. Realization of these
questions do not need to wait until Hu reaches out to
Chen."

B) "The Problem Does Not Lie in Chen"

Veteran journalist and Political News Section Director
Wu Tien-jung commented in the "My Views" column of the
centrist, pro-status quo "China Times" [circulation:
600,000] (5/8):

". For a long time, the DPP and independence supporters
in Taiwan have tended to treat the Washington-Beijing-
Taipei ties as a zero-sum game. As a result, Taiwan
thrills when Washington-Beijing relations deteriorate
and becomes heavy-hearted and worried when Washington-
Beijing ties improve. The independence supporters find
it hard to forgive President Chen because when
Washington renewed its defense treaty with Tokyo
earlier this year, they clearly included Taiwan into
the treaty. Those independence activists believe Chen
has, in the face of such a favorable situation for
Taiwan, completely wasted the goodwill gesture of the
international community for no good reason because he
has tilted toward Beijing, following Lien and Soong.

"But in reality, such an interpretation may not be able
to fit into the current international situation. U.S.
President George W. Bush is generally regarded as a
U.S. president that is most friendly with Taiwan, and
his Cabinet has the most officials that are friendly
with Taiwan. But in 2003, Bush publicly criticized
that Chen's behavior might change the status quo of the
Taiwan Strait and he has constantly sent special envoys
to Taiwan demanding that Taiwan not cross Washington's
red line. Bush has also played a key role in the
recent interaction across the Taiwan Strait.

"For Washington, even though it maintains a competitive
relationship with China strategically, it does not mean
both sides have to resort to arms, let alone go to war
because of Taiwan. The DPP needs to adjust itself and
understand that the Washington-Beijing-Taipei ties do
not necessarily have to be a zero-sum game. Washington
may not necessarily feel unhappy when cross-Strait
relations improve. In reality, if there has been any
improvement in Taipei-Washington relations lately, it
was mainly because of the goodwill gestures shown by
Chen towards the resumption of cross-Strait dialogue.
."

C) "Let Soong Build the Bridge; Is It a Script Or a
Guarantee by the Americans"

Professor Shih Chih-yu of Department of Political
Science, National Taiwan University, wrote in the pro-
unification "United Daily News" [circulation: 600,000]
(5/9):

". Therefore, one China under the Constitution means
peace but no unification [with China]. This fits
perfectly with what Washington has in mind. The
question is: is this a line or a guarantee?

"Washington's scheme is to recognize the legitimacy of
Chen Shui-bian's rule in exchange for his giving up of
de jure Taiwan independence and then promote cross-
Strait direct links in exchange for Beijing's
contentment with the status quo. Washington's asking
James Soong to do the job can help Chen Shui-bian evade
independence advocates. Co-incidentally, Lien Chan's
trip solidified the basis for promoting peace but no
unification. Washington thus collaborated with Lien
and reiterated support for him on the eve of the Lien-
Hu meeting. It collaborated with James Soong and
deceptively denied any involvement before his bridge-
building trip. It collaborated with Chen Shui-bian by
suggesting that Hu Jintao reach out to Chen when he
reacted positively to Lien and Soong's visits to the
mainland. Washington won cooperation when it wanted
Chen Shui-bian to talk only about peace but no Taiwan
independence and Lien and Soong to talk only about
peace but no unification. Opinion polls also showed
support.

". Washington is capable of facilitating the unstable
equilibrium of peace but no unification. But how is it
going to deal with the hate-turned love between the KMT
and the Chinese Communist Party, Chen Shui-bian's
limited ability to constrain the Taiwan independence
sentiment only for a while, mainland people's
misinterpretation that unification is around the
corner, and clashes between pro-unification and pro-
independence crowds? Even if James Soong has good
private relations with all parties involved, all of
them can break their word at any time. By that time
Washington will know what out of control means."

D) "Does the US Get China's Game?"

The pro-independence, English-language "Taipei Times"
[circulation: 30,000] editorialized (5/7):

"The Bush administration has been sending contradictory
messages to China in the last two years, damaging US
strategic interests in East Asia. So Thursday's phone
call between US President George W. Bush and his
Chinese counterpart Hu Jintao comes as a relief. .

"Such sound advice [by Bush] comes as a breath of fresh
air after the contradictory mess that has been US
policy. We have commented before on how the US has
concentrated on containing Chen and the Democratic
Progressive Party (DPP) government and boosting the pan-
blues - to the extent of the State Department's last-
minute intervention in last December's legislative
election campaign against the DPP - even though the pan-
blues, as Greater China nationalists, have strategic
interests exactly the opposite of the US. The passage
of Beijing's "Anti-Secession" Law seems to have finally
injected a little common sense into policy in
Washington. .

"Certainly it is in the interests of the US to see
tensions in the Taiwan Strait reduced by government-to-
government talks, just as it is also vital to US
interests that unification never takes place. The best
possible outcome therefore would be a Taiwan
permanently in green hands, and yet at least on `jaw,
jaw' rather than `war, war' terms with China.

"But how is this to come about? First, we would remind
our American friends that while Taiwan is ready to sell
wax apples to China and pet the pandas if they come,
the `reunification, independence or status quo' surveys
show no significant movement as a result of the
opposition leaders' visits. Neither the overwhelming
preference for the status quo, nor the poor support for
unification either now or in the future, have
significantly changed.

"And secondly, we would also remind them that the arms
budget has still not been passed and that this is the
fault specifically of the KMT. We said a couple of
weeks ago that it was time the US applied pressure to
the KMT leadership - visa and entry denials, and IRS
audits of US business interests of KMT leading lights
would be the weapons of choice. If the tactic to
isolate Chen appears to be gaining too much ground,
nothing would throw a spanner in the works as much as
the KMT backing passage of the weapons procurement bill
- and a little arm-twisting might bring that about."

E) "Reinforcing Taiwan's Self-Confidence"

The pro-independence, English-language "Taiwan News"
[circulation 20,000] noted in its editorial (5/9):

". Among all leaders in Taiwan, President Chen Shui-
bian stands at a critical historical crossroad in terms
of the challenge of leading the country to bridge
domestic divisions and the cross-strait difference,
while at the same time safeguarding Taiwan's
sovereignty, dignity and the democratic achievements
that the 23 million people have earned in the past
decade. .

"The president's recent moderate approach to deal with
domestic and cross-strait affairs has secured renewed
support from Washington that was manifested last week
by the advice given by United States President George
W. Bush to Hu in a `hot-line' telephone conversation to
`continue working on ways to reach out to President
Chen as the duly elected leader of Taiwan.'

"Despite Beijing's transparent campaign to marginalize
Chen and the DPP government, Bush's initiative, as well
as the growing reluctance of the European Community to
ease a 16-year old arms embargo on the PRC, should help
reassure Taiwan's citizens that the international
community has seen through this ploy."

F) "Don't Lose a Sense of Alertness Because of an
Illusion of Peace"

An editorial of the pro-independence "Liberty Times"
[circulation: 800,000] noted (5/9):

". Facing the fact that the opposition parties hold the
majority of seats in the Legislative Yuan, the
government, for the sake of reconciliation between
ruling and opposition parties and cross-Strait
stability, made good wishes for Lien and Soong's visits
to China and even asked them to be the pioneers. This
may be explained as an expedient measure. However, we
have to give a serious reminder here that expedient
measures can never replace the fundamentals. If the
government loses its sense of alertness while placing
hopes on Lien and Soong, the special legislation for
military procurements may not be adopted in the end.
And Lien and Soong may form partnerships with Beijing.
Then there will be immediate danger to Taiwan's
sovereignty and security. If so, Taiwan will lose
everything. One does not need to ask to know who will
be blamed for this in the history."

G) "Jointly Creating a New Cross-Strait Situation on
the Free Interpretations of One China Basis"

The pro-unification "United Daily News" [circulation:
600,000] said in an editorial (5/9):

". The fact that Lien Chan's visit to the mainland has
attracted so much attention by the international media
and has been blessed by [countries] including the
United States explains precisely why the `free
interpretations of one China' framework, which implies
maintaining the status quo, is most likely to win
stable international support in dealing with cross-
Strait relations.

". The `free interpretations of one China' [framework]
itself is, of course, not the goal but a legal
framework, which can facilitate reciprocal negotiations
between two incompatible regimes. The two Germanys
agreed to disagree over the goal of unification before
they unified. The equilibrium point for the two sides
across the Strait lies in `free' interpretations or
`no' interpretation of one China. Based on this, the
two sides can build military confidence, seek mutual
economic and trade benefits, and provide the greatest
advantage Taiwan can enjoy in the mainland. In this
way, cross-Strait peace can be ensured. This is in the
common interest of Asia-Pacific nations. Naturally,
major countries including the United States, are happy
to see this development.

". We hope that Lien's visit to the mainland will bring
an enlightening effect. Following the same direction,
from the unofficial Lien Chan, the semi-official James
Soong, to the official Chen Shui-bian, we will be
heading for a new, peaceful, win-win cross-Strait
situation."

PAAL

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