Cablegate: Asean, Arf, and the Eas

This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 HANOI 001682

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL VM ARF ASEAN
SUBJECT: ASEAN, ARF, and the EAS

1. (SBU) Summary: Vietnam is actively preparing for the
July ASEAN ministerial in Vientiane, where ASEAN will adopt
a formal position on the East Asia Summit (EAS). There is
momentum in favor of the decision to invite India to
participate in the EAS, but Australia's participation is
still not assured. ASEAN intends to keep control of the
EAS. On the subject of Burma, ASEAN leaders have received
assurances from Senior General Than Shwe that Burma intends
to pass on the 2006 ASEAN Chairmanship, and will announce
that at the Vientiane ministerial. Vietnam is looking at
the USG's representation for this year's ASEAN Regional
Forum/Post Ministerial Conference (ARF/PMC) as an indication
of Southeast Asia's importance to the United States. End
Summary.

EAST ASIA SUMMIT: PARTICIPATION AND OTHER ISSUES
--------------------------------------------- ---

2. (SBU) In a conversation with Poloff June 23, MFA ASEAN
expert Nguyen Van Hung said Vietnam understands that one of
the main tasks at the Vientiane ASEAN Ministers' Meeting
(AMM) in July will be to confirm formally the consensus on
the East Asia Summit (EAS) that came out of the April
Foreign Ministers' Retreat in Cebu, Philippines.
Specifically, Vietnam expects ASEAN to affirm that, with
regard to the EAS:

-- ASEAN will be "in the driver's seat;"
-- ASEAN will chair the EAS, which will be held at the
location of the ASEAN+3 summit in Kuala Lumpur immediately
following the ASEAN+3 summit; and,
-- The EAS will include the ASEAN+3 countries plus other
countries who wish to participate and who meet the following
conditions:

A. Full ASEAN dialog partner
B. Maintaining an effective cooperative relationship with
ASEAN
C. Agreeing to accede to the Treaty of Amity and
Cooperation (TAC).

The final decision on EAS participation will be made in
Vientiane, Hung said. At the same time, the ministers will
decide on the agenda of the EAS and whether or not there
will be a joint declaration, as well as the content of any
proposed declaration. After Vientiane, ASEAN will present
its EAS conclusions to the +3 countries, Hung explained. He
also confirmed that India, New Zealand and Australia are
candidates to participate in the EAS. "India is in
already," Hung said, "and Australia and New Zealand are
stuck on the TAC point." If Australia and New Zealand are
willing to sign a document pledging to accede to the TAC,
"that would be sufficient to participate."

3. (SBU) The Australian Ambassador confirmed to Poloff that
signing the TAC remains an obstacle, but he believes it is a
minor one. "The legal issues are resolved," he said. "We
are currently circulating documents that acknowledge
Australia's legal concerns regarding the TAC." He assessed
the likelihood of Australia's meeting all of the
requirements to announce an agreement to accede to the TAC
as 80 percent and expressed his belief that this
announcement would head off any late effort by Malaysia to
make the conditions for participation more restrictive.

4. (SBU) The Singaporean First Secretary was less
optimistic. She characterized the Australian effort as an
attempt "to determine the minimum they have to do" and "to
obtain a legal escape clause" from the TAC, and said that
the exercise was not being received well in ASEAN capitals
and could jeopardize Australia's bid to participate. This
effort had emboldened those who want to see more restrictive
criteria for participation, she said. "We support the
Australian bid completely, but cannot convince other ASEANs
to accept a watered-down commitment to the TAC."

BURMA AND ASEAN
---------------

5. (SBU) Hung obediently recited official Vietnamese talking
points regarding Burma's upcoming chairmanship, saying that
the decision whether or not to assume the 2006 chairmanship
was "in Myanmar's hands" and that Vietnam and other ASEAN
countries would "refrain from interfering in Myanmar's
internal affairs." Deviating a bit from his script, Hung
said Vietnam knows that the Burmese will "do something"
regarding the domestic political situation, which would then
present ASEAN with the unwelcome challenge of diplomatically
and accurately evaluating Burma's political progress. When
asked about Vietnam's reaction to former Malaysian PM
Mahathir's criticism of Burma and statement that the junta
should release Aung San Suu Kyi, Hung said "Mahathir is
saying what the other ASEAN countries are thinking."

6. (SBU) Our Singapore Embassy contact said the issue has
already been decided: Burma will definitely step down.
"The only issue is the wording of the statement now,
according to what the Thai leadership has told our Prime
Minister," she said. She stated that Burmese leader Than
Shwe told Singaporean PM Lee Hsien Loong at the Asia-Africa
Summit in April that Burma will step aside. Cambodian PM
Hun Sen also told PM Lee that Than Shwe had given him
similar assurances. Hung from the Vietnamese MFA had one
more observation to make: "we don't think the Burmese
government has enough money to host the ASEAN chairmanship
right now."
U.S. PARTICIPATION IN THE ARF
-----------------------------
7. (SBU) Hung asked if Secretary Rice would attend the
ARF/PMC in Vientiane this July. When told that the
Secretary's schedule was not yet set, Hung said the GVN

SIPDIS
"understands that she has a busy schedule." However, he
said, the USG should be aware that ASEAN is "watching
carefully" to see if the Secretary "attaches enough
importance" to Southeast Asia to attend the ARF/PMC. "It is
her first opportunity to visit Southeast Asia," he noted.
"Will she take it?"
BOARDMAN

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